How Honda Could Be The Key To Electrification In The United States

Honda Prologue Tmd
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My sister-in-law has a friend who moved to a place that did not have a Chili’s franchise and he remarked to her once, with a note of surprising sadness, that “you always think there’ll be a Chili’s.” That’s sort of how I feel about Honda. I don’t talk enough about Honda because Honda, for whatever reason, doesn’t feel as sexy of a topic as Tesla or GM or even Toyota. Sure, we review their cars, but I do think Honda gets a little taken for granted.

There’s some new data and analysis out and it’s making me think about Honda and the sleeper role it could play in the electrification of the fleet in the United States, both in terms of hybrids and pure BEVs. What else is going on today?  If you’re here and you already own an EV, you’re probably not happy with your tires. China is also thinking about EVs and has dispatched its commerce minister to Europe to try and persuade the continent to let in Chinese-made electric cars.

And, finally, the feds are looking into transmission failures in RAM trucks.

Honda Is Leading The Way In Hybrids As Alternative Energy Vehicles Grow To 18% Of The Market

03 2024 Prologue Elite

The folks at Cox Automotive are out with their big quarterly report on what’s going on in the industry and I encourage you to go read it if you want to get nerdy about the car industry, but I’ll take out the little bit of data that I find most interesting as that’s what I generally do around here.

Let’s start with this graphic:

Fuel Mix Chart
Chart: Cox Automotive, Data: KBB

As you can see, purely internal combustion-powered cars have dropped in the share of sales from 97% in the first quarter of 2019 down to just 81% in Q4 2023. While EVs have grown considerably in that time, PHEVs and Hybrids actually make up the largest share (10.5% total). PHEVs are dominated by the Jeep Wrangler PHEV, Grand Cherokee PHEV, and Toyota RAV4 Prime, which make up 45% of that little slice of the market. EVs are dominated by Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y. None of this is a surprise.

Here’s the graphic that got me, though:

vehicle share by manufacturer
Chart: Cox Automotive, Data: KBB

Volvo has made a big push for EVs and PHEVs so it’s no surprise there’s a good mix there. Toyota has been pushing hard with hybrids and its performance, too, isn’t really a surprise. Honda kind of caught me off guard, however, as it turns out the RAV4 Hybrid, Honda CR-V Hybrid, and Accord Hybrid combined to make up 38% of all hybrid vehicle sales last year.

Look at that tiny sliver of Toyota sales that are BEV. Those are entirely of the extremely unappealing and troubled bZ4X, a vehicle that Toyota must have known was going to be mediocre given they named it like a torrent. But people love Toyotas, and for good reason. I spoke to family members of bZ4X owners so I could ask them what the hell happened that would see someone they love behind the wheel of a bZ4X. The answer? These people wanted an EV and were only going to buy a Toyota.

Enter the GM-built Honda Prologue. Unlike the bZ4X, the Ultium-based Prologue has a competitive range (nearly 300 miles in the most efficient trim). The Prologue qualifies for federal tax incentives, meaning that it’s also somewhat price-competitive (about $43k after tax credits in the cheapest trim). It looks like a normal, inoffensive crossover of the type that Honda buyers love.

So this is my theory and what I want to see: I think GM and Ford have worked hard trying to push their EVs, but the next traunch of people most inclined to buy the current generation of EVs and hybrids are probably looking to buy something from either Toyota or Honda. Toyota has great hybrids but a mediocre EV. Honda has good hybrids and now, it seems, a decent EV.

I’m really curious to watch Prologue sales. Given the current projections, it’s not likely that Honda will sell more than 50,000 of these in 2024, which puts it in the Mach-E territory. That’ll help juice the market, but it isn’t an overwhelming number. But if Honda can be a success with a perfectly fine EV I think it’ll show where the demand is. If it fails and spurs more hybrid growth, it’ll also show where the market is.

Either way, the Prologue is maybe the most important electric car of 2024.

J.D. Power: EV Buyers Aren’t Super Jazzed About Tires

Rr TsTires are a key way to extend range in electric vehicles, yet a common complaint from EV owners is that tires wear faster than expected. At least, faster than consumers expect. The reality is that a Tesla Model 3 is about 30% heavier than a comparably-sized Honda Civic and also has almost instantaneous torque from its electric motors. That’s going to result in a lot of tire wear, especially from efficiency-oriented tires.

This dissatisfaction was noted in the latest tire satisfaction study from J.D. Power, which saw a widening gap between owners of regular cars and EVs:

“The widening satisfaction gap between EVs and gas-powered vehicles highlight an opportunity for tire manufacturers and automakers to educate EV owners on the differences in performance,” said Ashley Edgar, senior director of benchmarking and alternative mobility at J.D. Power. “Additionally, because of the inherit conflict of maximizing vehicle range and optimizing tire wear for EVs, tire manufacturers and automakers need to work together to overcome the challenge without completely sacrificing tire performance in other areas, especially as the EV market continues to increase.”

The solution here seems to be to tell EV owners to deal with it or find a better balance.

China Hoping To Persuade EU That It’s Still Cool

Byd Dolphin

I’ve already mentioned that the European Union is thinking about enacting retroactive tariffs against Chinese companies selling EVs in Europe over unfair subsidies and now China is dispatching its commerce minister, Wang Wentao, to France to try and fix it.

Here’s the scoop from Reuters on what’s going on:

Wang will visit France starting April 7 and will be accompanied on the trip by representatives of BYD, SAIC and Geely, the companies that have already hosted Commission investigators, one of the people with knowledge of the trip said.

This is key, because China is already responding:

France has backed the Commission investigation, part of a years-long campaign by President Emmanuel Macron for the EU to get tougher on trade and insist on a level playing field.
In response, China launched in January an anti-dumping investigation into brandy, which was considered as particularly aimed at France as it accounts for almost all EU brandy exports to China, Chinese customs data shows.
France’s cognac industry association said in January it would fully cooperate with Chinese authorities, but that it believed the inquiry was linked to a broader trade row rather than aimed at the liquor market.
Expensive brandy for China, cheap electric cars for Europe!

Feds Looking At Stellantis Over RAM Transmission Failures

Ring Failure
Source: NHTSA

If you’re the owner of a heavy-duty RAM pickup from the 2022 Model Year and you are on your truck’s forums, you probably noticed the many complaints about the transmission. It turns out the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has also taken notice.

From Reuters via Automotive News:

The agency said Friday it has received 82 complaints alleging loss of motive power due to an internal transmission failure of the K1 snap ring. It was not immediately clear how many vehicles would be included in the investigation.

Of these complaints, 16 describe a complete loss of motive power at speeds greater than 25 miles per hour, without the ability for the vehicle to resume normal operation, NHTSA said.

The snap ring becomes dislodged and forward gears 1 to 4 are no longer functional during a failure, potentially leaving the vehicle disabled.

That is less than ideal.

What I’m Listening To This Morning While Writing TMD

I woke up yesterday and jogged down the seawall on Corpus Christi Bay and knew I had to make it a Robert Earl Keen morning.

The Big Question

Would you trust an electric vehicle more if it was made by Honda? What about a hybrid? What are your feels about Honda?

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118 thoughts on “How Honda Could Be The Key To Electrification In The United States

  1. extremely late to this party (I have to send this problem laptop back and I wondered what was still in my tabs), but hell yeah, more REK

  2. Question…aren’t there high-mileage-warranty tires available for EVs in general?

    Not an EV, but I specifically sought out Hankook Kinergy PTs for my Prius v, which came with an 80,000 mile warranty, which I’m only about 30,000 miles into so far.

    Wouldn’t it be plausible to just find the highest-mileage-warrantied tires for your EV, then normal wear wears them down before then, so you get a free replacement?

    Even if the warranties only cover one replacement from normal use, that’s still two sets of tires for the price of one…isn’t it?

  3. I ditched the OEM tires for some Pilot Sport A/S and they are quieter and perform better with little loss of range. My OEM tires lasted a year to the day thanks to a nail in the wrong spot.

  4. Range is still an issue for many. So I have a C-Max hybrid, used for daily delivery. The transmission exploded this week, at 270k miles Can’t complain, it’s been a very trouble free and cheap to operate vehicle for 5 years. So I was looking at options. I saw Bolts with 30k on them for 14k. I did some math and realized the electricity + payment would equal what I’m spending on gas now, so it’s affordable. Range needs are 150-200 per day, and I’m not doing a recharge at 3:30am in order to go home 25 miles. Bolt at 258 miles sounded good.

    Then I started reading. In order to maximize battery life, you’re only supposed to go from 20-80% range. That’s 40% right off the bat. So now we’re talking a range of 154 miles…under ideal conditions, with a new battery. Range might decrease another 20-30% within 5 years. So that’s a no go for me.

    Probably going to put another transmission in the C-max (I can do it myself, and they upgraded the transmission to fix the problem I encountered in later models.) If I can get 2 more years out of it, I’ll be happy. Probably switch to a Camry hybrid at that point.

    1. 20-80 is for certain battery chemistry, and LFP which more companies are switching to can charge to 100% daily. Sounds like you drive a ton so a hybrid or PHEV would be better suited than BEV.

    2. I’m always intrigued whenever I hear anyone mention a C-Max, because I so rarely hear/d about them in general. I’d love to hear more about them, especially if an anecdote like this makes them sound “underloved.”

      1. I actually like my C-Max, and it’s obscurity is what lead me to buy one in the first place. When I was looking for a hybrid 5 years ago the C-Max I bought was 6 years old and had 116k miles on it. Similar Prii (or is it Priuseseses) were going for nearly double the price, or I could buy a Prius with double the age and miles for the same price. In addition, it’s roomier and zippier than a Prius, at the cost of worse gas mileage. 2 features I really like for a delivery car are: The AC is run off electricity, so you can leave it in front of a customer’s house with the AC running and the engine is off, and I have never changed the brakes on the vehicle. Pretty sure it’s still on the original pads, and they have plenty of pad left on them. On any other delivery car I’ve had to change the brakes at least twice a year. As noted in my post it’s been very reliable in the 5 years I’ve owned it with no major issues up until now. I was only looking at alternatives because the repair is going to cost 2k (replacement transmission) and I felt it wise to consider options before I spent that much on a 11 year old car with 267k miles on it.

        1. (According to a poll/promotion Toyota ran a while back, “Prii” was the winner for the plural with over 25% of the votes (a plurality).)

          Fair enough! I don’t think you’ll find Prius drivers replacing brakes often either, but I get it. I didn’t care about “zippy” and I was looking to dip my toes into “Toyota reliability” so I did end up getting a Prius v.

          1. Yes, one of the things that appealed to me was the hybrid system in Ford products is Toyota technology. So it has a eCVT with planetary gears instead of belts and variable pulleys. However, the C-Max and same year Fusions had the transmission designed by Ford (previous Fusions and Escapes actually had Aisin made eCVTs) and there is a flaw in the early ones there the transfer gear bearing can fail – pretty sure this is what happened to mine. I’m going to put in a later transmission for the repair.

  5. Honda makes good shit, and they have basically forever at this point. I would trust that whatever vehicle I’m buying from them is pretty good. Oddly though, I’m in the car market but not shopping Hondas right now.

  6. I loved my 2022 Civic Si when it wasn’t being a broken lemon, but I loathe the dealership experience. Everything from buying, to getting warranty repairs done was an absolute nightmare. The dealerships all seem to have the same attitude becuse its a Honda, most people will pay for stupid add ons, or silly ADM without batting an eye. Then getting any complaint or warranty repair addressed was next to impossible. The upside to being a Honda is a crazy resale value. I feel bad for the first few people that have to deal with first gen EV teething issues and that atrocious dealer experience.

    1. Honda and Ford are the only two dealers I have walked out of shaking my head. In each case I was lucky enough to detect the scumminess before making a purchase.

      I’m convinced Honda or the dealership owner paid it’s staff to be so bad that you would maybe try Acura. I did. Basically the same car with some extra polish, but a waaay better dealer experience. I’m not sure what it’s like now since I’m not in the market for a 5000lb truck, so they aren’t on my shopping list anymore. Maybe that new Prelude might get me to take a sniff.

      1. Just curious, what was scummy about the Ford dealer?

        I’m a Toyota fanboy who grew up in a Ford household and I suppose old habits die hard…albeit I was never the one negotiating a purchase at the Ford place.

  7. I love Honda and have a 9th gen Accord…I used to have a couple of 3rd gens w/ stick and pop up lights. I eventually want a CRX and a 3rd gen Prelude. So obviously no to EV’s/hybrids

  8. “Would you trust an electric vehicle more if it was made by Honda? What about a hybrid?”

    My Ohio built Accord purchased new, is now 18 yo and still going. It’s got a timing chain. @160k the valve clearances were still as the factory had set them, perfect! Parts are cheap and readily available. It gets 26 mpg overall with a light right foot. I can swap out a headlight bulb in minutes. Its comfy, quiet enough with switchgear all still working like new.

    So yes, I would definitely give Honda a hard look if I were in the HEV or BEV market.

    “What are your feels about Honda?”

    Overall I think Honda is awesome EXCEPT for that one thing. Honda knows what it did.

  9. I’m considering getting a Honday Clarity phev. Been researching and they don’t seem to have many issues and 40 miles electric range then 40 mpg once that’s up sounds real attractive. I also just like the rear wheel covers and the silly trunk window. Only concerns would be my charging situation and the small 7 gallon gas tank for when the engine is in use.

    1. Isn’t that hydrogen powered? Hydrogen fueling is a nightmare in California with stations closing or just not having gas. It’s worse than EA.

      1. Nope, the Clarity phev uses gasoline. Similar tech and set up as the Chevy Volt. There was a phev, a hydrogen varient and an ev with an 80 mile range. The phev was sold everywhere, the other two were California only.

  10. I had a Honda Civic DX. I got in an accident, the car did a 4 complete rollovers before stopping wheels down. I was not injured, the car except for 4 flat tires a broken windshield a busted radiator came through fine but ugly. It only cost $1,000 to get it road legal and I sold it for $400. I trust Honda but not built with the GM Union label. Those guys build worse cars every year.

    1. My wife had an Acura EL (basically a Canada market Civic SI rebage). She got hit by a red light runner. Square in the driver’s side and pushed into a delivery truck on the passenger side. The insurance write-off images were horrifying. She walked away fine (but she still gets triggered every time she sees a camaro on the road). It took me a while to even be convinced she was in it when it happened.

      Remarkable engineering. I am so impressed.

  11. Well the Brandy thing explains why years of tariffs have been lifted in Aussie wine, they need something to drink!

    A GM Honda is not a Honda…

    And if EV owners had normal powered cars, and drove normally they’d prob find tyre life is ok…

  12. I love my Honda. It has been absolutely bulletproof, comfortable and has enough power to be kind of fun on public roads when I want it to be. As has been said many times, driving a slow car fast is more fun than driving a fast car slow.

    That said, as good as the Prologue looks and as much as I agree with some of the ideas behind it, I would still take a nicely equipped CR-V hybrid and pocket the difference. I assume the base Prologue will have more features than a base CR-V, but even putting it up against a nicer CR-V trim to make the comparison more fair, I would still be saving like at least $12,000 (MSRP with no dealer markup). A $50,000+ “CR-V” isn’t on my shopping list no matter what’s powering it.

  13. These people wanted an EV and were only going to buy a Toyota.

    And the hundreds of thousands of fiercely loyal “Toyota or bust” US customers is why Toyota has more leeway than most automakers to take is time introducing its lineup of BEVs, especially if faster movers like Ford and GM continue screwing up their product launches. The second Toyota introduces its serious BEV Highlander and/or RAV-4 equivalents, its competitors BEV owners and ICE holdouts will beat a path to the showroom floor.

  14. I will be amused by people who “don’t buy domestics” buying a Honda that is a GM.

    Interestingly I understand that the Honda buyers can still get CarPlay, while the GM buyers can’t because GM is stupid enough to think it can build its own ICE walled garden.

    Fortunately, my Silverado, which is the other ICE, still has CarPlay.

  15. I’ve had a Honda hybrid, I rather liked it. I replaced it with basically the same car, non-hybrid because I needed transportation quickly during the super low inventory portion of 2021. I would own one again.

  16. Wondering if a possible balance might be to go to smaller wheels, with smaller, cheaper tires. That way, if they wear out faster, at least they’re a cheap replacement

    Could help in making often bulky cars look longer and lower, also could improve ride with thicker sidewalls

    Problem might be that heavier vehicles typically require larger brakes, so there could be a hard limit to how small an EV’s wheels can get. 13 inches might be out, but maybe 16?

    1. Smaller tires have less rubber in them and will wear away even faster. Shrinking the wheels and tires without shrinking the car and lowering the beltline will just make it look like a Pontiac Aztec.

      If I were a betting man, I’d say the low rolling resistance rubber formulations they’re selling from the factory to juice the range numbers just aren’t up to the weight and torque they’re tasked to handle, and it should get better once they get better shoes. These heavy powerful vehicles are going chew up tires, but every oil change is just crazy.

      1. They make tires for trucks that last 50k miles, they can do the same for electric vehicles. Also might want to find a way to dial back the torque delivery at launch from a stop – it’s a problem even on my hybrid. They could make a button so you can turn it off it you want to do a full send.

      2. I went through tires as frequently on my Scat Pack as my BEV. People are coming from economy cars with lower power and blasting off at every stop. If BEV were dialed back they would still be adequately quick but wear tires slower. The BEV tires are also harder and the OEM one are exceptionally bad. I swapped to some Pilot Sport A/S and have better grip with little loss of range. They are also quieter. There are already newer BEV targeted tires performing better.

        1. Little loss of range in the real world, but Label Range is (usually) determined by running the FTP75 cycle over and over: 11 miles at an average speed of 21 MPH with 23 stops. Much less of the energy involved is dissipated via air resistance, and it makes many more trips from the battery to the road surface and back via the ties.

  17. I’ve owned 4 Honda vehicles, all of them solid as hell. What got me hooked on them was the 1981(83?) 110ATV my parents got me and my brother as kids. This is before we knew how messed up dangerous they could be and luckily we escaped those years without more than a few stiches, a sprained back, and a few other minor injuries.

    That ATV took a BEATING but ran forever. I think we changed the oil once in 15 years we had it. Rode it through mud, water, dirt, gravel. No suspension beyond the balloon tires (3 psi) and we jumped it, towed crap with it, did an equivalent of neutral drops (clutchless manual transmission), crashed it into trees, flipped it, etc. That motor never had a problem. I think we may have changed the sparkplug once. We repaired the bent forks with a come-along, some chain, a length of 6″ pipe, and a tree trunk.

    Point is, they seem to make really durable machines. Yes, their designs have gotten boring, stale, and a bit meh. But after my Subaru Ascent had 5-6 transmission recalls, never got better than 17mpg, I wanted something reliable and less thirsty. In my experience, Honda may be a bit boring, but I see it as a vehicle I don’t have to worry about.

  18. Honda–Give me an electric Honda Fit sized car with decent range (at least 250 miles). Until then, my aging 2012 Fit will do just fine thank you very much. I am intrigued by the Telo truck in Van configuration, but the price is projected to be too high IMHO.

  19. I was a huge Honda fan in the 90s. Had several Civics (Si, HX, DX) and a CRX Si. all through the 90s and into the early 2000s. Test drove a Prelude as “The One That Got Away®” but I really couldn’t afford it.

    I think that in the 90s Honda was a lot more special than today. They cost a bit more but their build quality was just better than their competition. They sat above Toyota, all the domestics, certainly VW of the time. Not up to luxury levels certainly but somewhere in between. In my opinion, it’s a reputation they’re still coasting on and I can just about pinpoint the exact time it started going downhill for them; 1995.

    The Civic of 95 was such a great looking car and for some strange reason I still can’t fathom they had the idea that it was just too “sporty” looking. People that drive compact commuter cars certainly don’t want this level of styling to their cars. What?

    For me, that was the start of them looking to cut costs and compete on the level with Toyota and everyone else. Where they used to have superior feeling manual transmission and clutch, just use whatever off the shelf stuff was available. Sound deadening? That’s too costly for a Civic. It was the opposite that built the reputation but now I see them as more marketing/advertising than substance.

    I am, however, very interested in what that new Prelude looks like in production…

    1. That is when the Japanese bubble burst and all carmakers had to extend their refresh cycles (it had been every four years for Honda through the ’80s and early ’90s) and start trimming costs. But yeah, I agree that Honda seemed to fall further than the others. I suspect part of it was sudden conservatism as well, as if they realized just how well they were doing (they really were rocking the sales charts back then and did much better in the US relative to other Japanese carmakers than in Europe) and didn’t want to fuck it up.

      They aren’t entirely without innovation still, but they aren’t out in front like they were 30 years ago. The last out-of-the-box (heh, heh) production model was the Element, which didn’t get a full model changeover before they stopped production even though a further-sorted second-generation plopped on a shared platform would likely have done even better as compact SUVs have gained market share. An Element to augment or supplant the HRV, which hasn’t had that much appeal to enthusiasts or non-enthusiasts in the US, would have been a distinct offering among the crowd of compact SUVs. That, coupled with some very real reliability issues that haven’t so far impacted buyer perceptions, have left Honda (and Acura even more so) treading water. I wouldn’t expect them to go back to the ways of the cost-unconscious bubble era, but they certainly can do better than they have been.

  20. I bought a ’22 Honda Insight a few days ago and I’m so here for Honda’s electrification progress. I’m coming from a Saab that turned into a moneypit, so I wanted its replacement to be reliable, economical, and no more than 25k out the door. Had I not remembered the Gen 3 Insights, I’d probably have gone with a Prius. But man oh man am I glad I remembered the Insight.

    This is also my first hybrid so I’m late to the party with this tech, but playing around with the EV mode makes me feel like I’m driving a manual in that I can have more say in what my car does. (I wanted a first-gen manual insight but #dadlife).

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