The number-one biggest electric carmaker in the United States is Tesla and it’s going to be Tesla for a long time. Maybe forever. This means the race, at the moment, is for 2nd place. GM probably should be the 2nd biggest EV automaker, but with the Bolt fading away it’s Ford that holds this position.
Will a cheaper Ford F-150 Lightning be the key to keeping Ford in that position? Maybe! It certainly doesn’t hurt.
While Tesla seems far away from being unionized over here, one of Tesla’s investors in Norway is probably going to ask CEO Elon Musk at the annual meeting what’s up in Sweden.
And, finally, let’s end Friday with some news on a famous Ferrari mechanic arrested for shenanigans. Everyone loves shenanigans.
Ford’s EV Sales Grew 86% Year-Over-Year Compared To Just 2.6% For The Overall Market
An overproduction of Tesla Model Ys doesn’t seem to be moving Tesla’s sales performance in the United States, which was down 13.3% year-over-year.
At 140,187 sales in Q1 of 2024 in the U.S., Tesla still represents more than half of the total EV market, so, when Tesla drops, it requires the rest of the market to have big increases to make up the difference. Therefore, the overall EV market in the United States still grew, it just only grew by 2.6%.
Here’s how Cox Automotive puts it:
While annual EV sales continue to grow in the U.S. market, the growth rate has slowed notably. Sales in Q1 rose 2.6% year over year, but fell 15.2% compared to Q4 2023. The increase last quarter was well below the previous two years.
In Q1 2023, EV sales volumes were up 46.4% year over year and 15.5% quarter over quarter. In Q1 2022, EV sales were higher by 81.2% year over year and 20.4% higher than the previous quarter.
“Electric vehicle sales in the U.S. declined during Q1 2024 – the first quarter-over-quarter downturn since Q2 2020,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive.
That’s not great, but there are some interesting outliers here. Honda is now in the market, barely, but the new Honda Prologue is coming. Rivian, Lucid, Vinfast, and even Fisker are selling cars.
BMW is way up at 62.6% year-over-year and, by volume, is ahead of Kia (also up by 62.8%). Besides Tesla, Chevrolet is the most obvious loser as there’s no Equinox EV yet and the Bolt is dead. Overall, Chevy dropped 55.8% even as Cadillac and GMC both grew.
Ford, though, is the standout here. The company is losing money on its EVs and delaying EV plans so it can introduce more hybrids in the interim, but Ford still has the most popular electric truck, the most popular non-Tesla EV crossover, and the ability to make a lot of EVs that qualify for some/all federal tax credits.
That’s a winning combo, and Ford’s 20,223 sales of EVs in Q1 were up a whopping 86% over Q1 of 2023.
It’s possible that Tesla lowers its Model Y prices enough to have a better Q2 (the company is certainly trying), but the big question is: At some point this year will Tesla slip enough to no longer be the majority EV automaker in the United States and instead be the plurality EV automaker?
It’s an important distinction.
Ford Drops F-150 Lightning Prices As Much As $5,500
A leaked memo, found by Cars Direct, indicates that Ford is going to lower prices on its 2024 F-150 Lightning even as the company cuts back on production.
The price changes for the electric truck went into effect on April 5th.
The price changes for the 2024 Ford F-150 Lightning are as follows:
- Pro (Standard Range): Unchanged at $54,995
- XLT (Standard Range): -$2,000 to $62,995
- Flash (Extended Range): -$5,500 to $67,995
- Lariat (Extended Range): -$2,500 to $76,995
- Platinum (Extended Range): Unchanged at $84,995
In particular, that huge drop to the F-150 Lightning Flash is a good deal. The Flash is already the one to get, offering a heat pump, the tech options most people need, and an extended-range battery. Assuming you qualify for the federal tax credit, that’s about $60k for a nice truck that goes 320 miles. That undercuts the Cybertruck and Rivian R1T.
It won’t likely help with Ford’s EV profit margin (the company said it plans to lose $5.5 billion on EVs and EV development this year), but it’ll certainly help with market share.
Norway’s Pension Fund To Tesla: WTF BRUH?
A strike by mechanics working for Tesla in Sweden continues, with no obvious end to the dispute. There are sympathy strikes and all sorts of pressure, but Tesla CEO Elon Musk doesn’t seem to be budging.
According to this Reuters story, this doesn’t sit well with Norwegian pension fund KLP. Normally, the company can shrug off any complaints, but KLP owns 900,000 Tesla shares and thus can make a stink and ask tough questions if it wants to and, yeah, maybe it wants to.
On Monday, Musk said “the storm had passed on that front”. But the strike is continuing and the union leading the action told Reuters this week it may ramp it up.
KLP was a signatory to a December letter sent by Nordic investors expressing their concern about the strike in Sweden and Tesla’s reluctance to acknowledge a right to collective bargaining.
“That Elon Musk is saying that the ‘storm has passed’ is just his way to underestimate the conflict and the issue,” Kiran Aziz, KLP’s head of responsible investments, told Reuters.
“The conflict is still going and Musk does not really want to understand that collective bargaining is the backbone of the Nordic labour model.”
Lol, never trust anyone who says ‘the storm has passed on that front’ in almost any context. A rational actor might settle, but Musk isn’t rational, so it’s possible he’d rather just take Teslas out of Sweden than have to recognize a union.
Famed Ferrari Mechanic Gets Arrested
https://www.instagram.com/p/CVimzAzjUaq/
The downside of having an Instagram account for your dog is that, if you get arrested for theft and fraud, journalists like myself will definitely take your Instagram account and look for a picture of you in Venice with your dog looking fancy. There are rules. Or, at least, there are norms.
For a glimpse inside the world of fancy people, we yet again go to our friend Hannah Elliott at Bloomberg who has this piece on well-regarded Ferrari mechanic Donnie Callaway.
On April 1, Callaway found himself booked in the Lower Buckeye Jail in Arizona’s Maricopa County on charges of theft, trafficking stolen property, forgery and fraud.
The 60-year-old mechanic had been arrested hours earlier after he allegedly attempted to sell a Ferrari Daytona and Ferrari 512BB to an Arizona collector who apparently had come to suspect that Callaway did not rightfully own the vehicles he was selling. The collector set up what people close to the matter described as a sting operation. The collector could not be reached for comment. The people close to the matter did not want to be identified so as not to affect potential future lawsuits, they said.
Not a good look.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
This is going to come up in Tales from the Slack later, I think, so just gonna go into the weekend with some Violent Femmes.
The Big Question
Here’s the chart, do you think Tesla could fall to below half of the EV market in the United States in 2024?
KLP owning 900k shares of Tesla may sound like a lot, but Elon owns 411 million shares. So KLP owns only 0.22% of the amount that Elon owns. I doubt Elon gives a damn about what KLP thinks.
Flush: You could help that along by buying me that new back-seat-less Taycan Turbo GT with the Weissach Package. My birthday is in June, that looks like EXTREMELY good parsh, and I have little to no shame.
Seems to me we’re going to get to the point where we’re looking at Teslas share of the new vehicle market soon. TMC is the big competitor. Sure, there will still be stories about share if the BEV and share of the electrified markets, but they’ll be as meaningful as share if actual colors car stories and save the manual are now.
?
I feel like Tesla could end up becoming like the “MG” of the US, have like their models that never change, become a lower volume thing maybe even closing down Fremont, Germany, China just keep for batteries. Get their money from the supercharger network but also make like the Roadster, Cybertruck, various plaid models coming through Austin.
Definitely could see them dip below 50% next year, they started as a niche item for rich ‘eco conscious’ people, they’ve migrated to a still somewhat niche item for well off people, but there’s many more options now, rich folks like shiny new things, eco conscious may not be too big a fan of right wing twittering, so the tides are turning.
Elon Musk is not Midas.
He got away with a lot when there wasn’t much competition, but now there is and I don’t think it’s sustainable. I think most of Tesla’s actual profits came from things like selling carbon credits, overpriced spurious software, and supercharger access, but not from the actual car sales. Now with real EV competition, regulatory investigations into the software, and eventual charger competition, I see a serious lack of profitability in the next few years. I don’t believe it will kill Tesla, but it will squeeze out ego projects like the KetaTruck and pressure the stock mightily.
FTFEM
JFC what is wrong with that guy. Does he think being a cryptonazi is cute?
Regarding the Big Question: It’s not a question of if it will happen, but when. I don’t think it will happen in 2024, but it’s likely to happen in 2025… particularly as GM and Stellantis should have their BEV production ramped to a higher level by then.
Also, the sales of hydrogen vehicles are hilarious. Why do Hyundai and Toyota continue to bother with that investment black hole that has no future on any large scale?
“Also, the sales of hydrogen vehicles are hilarious. Why do Hyundai and Toyota continue to bother with that investment black hole that has no future on any large scale?”
If I had to guess its a combination of saving face and government funding.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japan-invest-107-bln-hydrogen-supply-over-15-years-2023-06-06/
But I agree, this will not end well.
It was mostly a rhetorical question and yeah, I agree it’s mostly about saving face.
And about greenwashing the inefficient consumption of Australian brown coal.
2024? No, 2030, Yes. Now that everyone and their mother are going to tesla’s plug, this is going to do nothing but help all the others to catch up or surpass Tesla in a few years time.
Tesla is currently in low 50%s of market share. They dropped over 10% of marketshare in 2023. Why do you believe it will take 6 years to lose the next 3 or 4%?
The Hot button right now are Hybrids. Toyota can’t keep them on the showroom floor Honda is close by with the Accord. Kia/Hyundai and BMW are the only real manufacturers doing anything with BEV’s and growth, GM, well, they are just a joke, you can take anything they say with a grain of salt. Ford can’t move cars unless they do a price cut on the previous years vehicles. Market share will be stagnant plus or minus 1-2% for the few years.
Tesla’s 50%+ is how many of all EVs sold are Tesla. Hybrids won’t change that discussion as they are excluded from full EV data. Even if only 10 EVs were sold this year because everyone bought Hybrids, if 5 are Tesla, then Tesla stays at 50%.
If Hybrids do get included, like how the Chinese Govt views “new energy” vehicles, then that share will fall off even faster, as the pool is even more diluted.
Tesla’s total market share in the US was 4.2% in 2023
Hybrids will absolutely affect EV sales. I am not including them in the EV market, I’m including them from taking shares away from EV’s competing with each other. Everyone pushing to make more Hybrids will take even more from their earlier push from EV’s for the time being.
Tesla who?
Everybody is predicting that Tesla will lose market share due to stagnant models or opening up Superchargers……. Without taking into account that they just came out with the refreshed Model 3 and the Cybertruck, meaning their model lineup is a whole lot less stagnant and a lot more diverse than it was a few months ago.
On paper, the big change in lineup should increase sales significantly. I also wonder if they’ve had a dip in sales as people hold out for the Cybertruck.
Okay but have you considered that the new Model 3 is just a mildly face lifted version of the old one that’s more of an headache to interact with and that the Cybertruck is a rolling meme?
I have, but I don’t think Tesla buyers will.
I don’t think Tesla buyers mind but the rest of the automotive public will. When people go to buy a new vehicle, some familiarity is important. I guess the two main questions are, “how long will it take for other automakers to catch up with lower-priced EVs” and “will affordable EVs be ready in time to overlap with a general demand/mandates for EVs”.
The highland model 3 went on sale early January in the states and before that in Europe. Deliveries occurred in early February I understand. So pretty much all the 1st quarter data already includes sales of the refreshed Model 3, and it wasn’t enough. And the Cybertruck will never be a volume vehicle. Even Elon has admitted as much. Neither of those appears to be sufficient to compete with new stuff everyone else is dropping.
Model 3 has been on sale since 2017.
That’s 7 years before a facelift.
Honda did a new model every 5 years till this last Civic and Accord, which was after 7 – I’m guessing because pandemic.
Even creaky old Mercedes and BMW do facelifts at 3-4 years and a completely new model at 7.
But new bumpers and turn-signal delete – Yay!
Frequency of facelifts doesn’t necessarily have much to do with sales, case in point Jeep Cherokee, 17 year model and one(ish) facelift 13 years in, strong sales the whole way. Another case in point being the 5th gen 4runner, 15 year model with high sales the whole time.
The R107 Mercedes-Benz SL lasted from 1972-1989 – and went through 3 major facelifts, more than 3 dozen colors, and myriad minor and major updates at least every two years.
The Volvo 200 Series – Which was derived from the earlier 140 Series – lasted from 1974-1993. Again, updates every year, multiple color selection changes and major facelifts every few years.
The only body panels and exterior features that lasted from beginning to end of production were the doors, roof and glass.
Both had steady sales up to the very end of production.
Yay – The Model 3 has a new paint that’s not an actual color too!
That will surely make sales pick up.
Or not.
TBF the R107 was a design masterpiece and very few cars before or since have attained similar levels of perfection. Tesla sure hasn’t.
The R107 definitely had its share of issues – but eventually they were all worked out by the final 4 years of production.
That said – I’d rather daily a mid or late series R129 (in production 12 years, 2 major facelifts, countless colors)
Those were vehicles selling “heritage” to retrogrouches though.
Eh, Tesla also does sort of mini-refreshes constantly, especially on newly-released cars. They’re small, but the add up to the equivalent of a full refresh every couple years or so.
That’s going to be an enormous pain in terms of parts availability and matching, but it does mean they’re not actually particularly behind in terms of updates.
The Model 3 is just a model 3, though, and the Cybertruck has very limited appeal to the point it barely counts as a lineup expansion.
A real truck, a small, affordable city car, maybe an overland or offroad model normal people would be seen in, those would make their lineup more interesting and fresh. As it stands, all they have on offer now looks either tired and boring or offensively apocalyptic.
Tesla’s market share is decreasing because their products are becoming less and less competitive. 5 years ago a 300mile-ish range EV was almost unheard of and Tesla was the only game in town. When you’re the only game in town you can get away with cheap corporate office park interiors, QC issues out the wazoo, and having a psychopathic figurehead.
Guess what? It’s not enough anymore. You can go to a number of dealerships from long established brands and drive out in an EV that’s nicer than a Tesla in every conceivable way other than the charging network and maybe having slightly less (but still similar) range…and with the NACS transition looming Tesla is going to lose its major advantage on the charging front sooner rather than later.
Tesla needs to update and significantly improve their products if they want to remain competitive, but god emperor Elon has his engineers working on rolling shitposts and assorted monuments to his ego so he can own the libs and feel like an extra special boy who his father loves very much. I don’t even think it’s all that outlandish to say they’re in big trouble right now…the question is whether or not Elon can display the self-awareness and humility necessary to improve his company’s products…and if that’s as unlikely as it seems on paper then they need to oust him, and fast.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if in the not so distant future Tesla is just a battery and charging infrastructure manufacturer. They’re really good at those two things and less good at the whole “making cars” one. Also, dear god Elon. Just get some goddamn therapy already. It’s a lot more effective and cheaper than running your company into the ground out of spite.
Also you’ve been on a roll with the music Matt. I absolutely love the Femmes. If you haven’t seen them live DO IT! They bring out a bunch of whacky additional instrumentation that they refer to as the “horns of dilemma” and it makes their live music a lot more improvisational and chaotic. It’s delightful.
Honestly, being a battery and charging infrastructure company is not a bad business plan. The name is established, the factories are there. “Powered by Tesla” could work out great, and it would make development costs drop for many companies.
“Tesla’s market share is decreasing because their products are becoming less and less competitive”
No.
Their “BEV market share” (of a BEV market that is growing overall at the expense of ICE vehicles) decreased because other OEMs have been raising BEV production and Tesla had some supply interruptions.
Tesla’s products are as competitive as ever… especially with recent price cuts.
And it will be interesting to watch as Tesla works to raise Cybertruck production to fill that ~2 million unit order backlog.
“Tesla’s products are as competitive as ever”
…have you sat in one? They’re competitive on range/charging and price but that’s literally it….and the charging and range advantages are on borrowed time
“…have you sat in one? “
Yes… and also driven them.
“They’re competitive on range/charging and price but that’s literally it”
You’re entitled to your WRONG opinion…
A big screen doesn’t make a car feel ‘nice’. I don’t know how you define ‘desirable’ in terms of a vehicle’s interior and NVH, but I would certainly like to understand your line of thought.
Comfortable seats, great to drive, efficient, good quality materials without relying on those stupid soft-touch coatings that rub off with use that other “high quality” car makers love to rely on to give the false impression of quality.
And when I look at pictures of older and high mileage Teslas, none of them seem to have the paint delamination and headlight fogging issues that other “higher quality” brands have.
And the interiors of those high mileage Teslas also seem to hold up really well.
So that’s my basis of ascertaining real quality as opposed to the bullshit “quality” that doesn’t hold up over time that is the case of many other automakers.
Supply interruptions were just an excuse. Their inventory didn’t drop but their sales did. Which means it’s not supply constrained. It’s a demand issue. BTW, That is why they are dropping prices. If you are supply constrained, then you raise prices.
edit: Agree that they are price competitive with recent cuts. But they are starting to look more like Dodge competing on price with aging (aged) models.
+1 on the Dodge analogy.
For sure Teslas are selling slower than they can make them. On an out of the way storage lot near me they have hundreds if not thousands – it is a big lot) of cars stashed and the lot keeps getting more and more cars.
Offer them nicely equipped for under $20k (before any government rebates) and MAYBE I’ll consider it.
I think Musk’s willingness to market Full-Self Driving, as flawed as it is, keeps them competitive. I know it isn’t safe but I would consider a Tesla just for the option. I don’t think we’re close to other manufacturers offering the same thing for a while since it doesn’t appear that the technology is there yet.
I think the heat pump is standard for all ’24 Lightning’s, not just the flash.
Still say the PRO is the best one, but yeah the extended range for $60k after the tax credit is getting there.
Hopefully by the time my ionic 6 lease runs out in 2 years or so there are some better BEV / PHEV truck options in the <$50k range…
The original reporting was that the Flash would come with a heat pump and that the lower trims did not. Turns out it was a bit of a PR pretzel by Ford, which later clarified heat pumps would be standard for 2024. https://insideevs.com/news/689694/ford-f150-lightning-heat-pump/
Agreed, this is the year Tesla drops to under 50% of a growing EV market.
They need people to buy and they’re not. At least until later in the quarter if/when incentives ramp up. Tesla did this to themselves with the constant shifting prices and history of waiting until quarter end to move metal. That trained folks to wait until quarter endings to see what incentives there would be. When even their employees at the customer facing level are saying to wait until later in the quarter knowing full well the crunch they’re going to face, it’s bad.
I think Tesla should partner with BYD on an affordable model for the U.S. market. A sub-$20k 200+ mile range sub-3,000 lb vehicle that can comfortably seat 5, and out-perform ICE cars that cost 3x as much. Use Tesla’s drive systems and mechanicals with BYD’s batteries and platform, and wrap a streamlined sub-0.20 Cd body around it. It could be partially made/assembled in the U.S., partially made/assembled in China, just enough to beat the IRA.
They could own the affordable EV market in the U.S., and if the U.S. government bans Chinese EVs from the U.S. market, this is a potential loophole. In the scenario that Chinese EVs get banned, it will force the legacy automakers who want nothing but overpriced/oversized trucklets to be the cheapest EVs available and are currently colluding to make that the paradigm going forward to adapt to disruption or die. Tesla has the capability to fuck the legacy automakers 7 ways to Sunday, and it rightfully should. Drive profit margins downward, and value upward.
BYD is Tesla’s #1 competition globally, the skirt-lifting needed to make that tie-up work is probably very unappealing from an IP standpoint. I see the tie-up/loophole creation being more likely for a legacy OEM. Stellantis needs all the help they can get, or perhaps a North American rebirth for Mitsubishi?
Or BYD goes it alone and sets up factories in Mexica to work around the IRA’s USMCA (NAFTA was a catchier name) requirements.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi3bdofoQXw
PS: MotorTrend’s panel following their screening of the doc at the LA Autoshow was one of the highlights of my Infiltrator trip. Well, that and SWG’s wooden bowtie. Great conversation and I’m hoping this topic continues to be revisited as so many questions remain.
That was an informative video. Thank you.
I don’t think it make much a difference for Tesla. We all knew the traditional OEMs would be coming with their EVs at some point. Tesla opening new factories in different countries will continue their sales. Whether it be 60% market share or 10%. In the end, they carved out a slice of the pie. Look for prices of Tesla’s charging network to go up. SpaceX hauling fees going up? StarLink prices going up?
Tesla currently doesn’t have anything to move the needle except pricing, and they can’t just keep using that lever. Other major brands are dropping new EVs constantly so the market is getting diluted. Depending on where I look Tesla was 51-53% of the market of new sales. Unless they surprise us with a refresh or a new model this year, yes, this is the year I think Tesla slips below 50% new market share. I think they will continue to have an outsized portion of the market to themselves for a while to come, but I don’t think they will ever again be majority player.
“Famed Ferrari Mechanic Gets Arrested”
Paging Matt Farah of The Smoking Tire: Might want to check on your Countach.
From Matt’s videos Donnie always seemed like a good guy, hopefully it was all just a misunderstanding.
I’m not sure that it is though. Was there some enormous outcry when GM fell below 50% market share? Did it affect their operations or business strategy in any way?
I predict Tesla is going to keep doing things its own way whether it has 9% or 90% of the EV market share.
I think it’s a big deal! I don’t know that they’ll act differently, but it’s a big deal for the market if it’s not just Teslas.
I guess I see it differently.
A huge number of competing products are already on sale; their relative popularity changing by a few percentage points doesn’t seem earth-shaking to me.
It seems like its a shift from THE EV MAKER, to an EV maker.
is moving from 51% to 49% really such a clear-cut tipping point, though? To me, this is a spectrum of change, not a binary yes/no situation (although The Media loves to turn spectrums (like “safety”) into binaries, as it creates a lot of sensationalistic opportunities when reality is far more banal)
Its 2%. But it really is a very clear cut point. It may not change anything but perceptions around Tesla, but 50% is where majority ends. Above that, majority. Below that, plurality. so yes, it really is a very clear cut transition point.
I think the percentage of the total market is a distraction from what is actually important. If they are continuing to grow the number of vehicles they’re selling in the markets they’re trying to perform in, then the percent of the market is immaterial.
As V10 said, there are multiple new models coming from multiple manufacturers nearly monthly. A slide in market share is normal. Also, as the market matures and EVs are more universally accepted it will be expected that the totality of manufacturers will have a majority of their lineup as EV and the market share will slide even more.
They will need to have a larger range of vehicle types if they want to keep up. If they start sliding on the total number of vehicles built and sold, that will be an important distinction, not the overall market share numbers.
I would not at all be surprised to see Tesla continue to decline in sales, whether due to Elon’s toxicity or a stagnant lineup. The biggest things they have going for them at the moment are the ease with which you can buy/lease a Model Y and the Supercharger network. But as they open up Superchargers to more and more non-Teslas, I think you’re going to see their market share fall substantially.
I personally think this is an extremely valid comment. I know several folks who were planning on buying a Tesla in order to access the Supercharger network despite not being in love with any of the Tesla models (or Musk’s shenanigans). All but one either put their purchase on hold, or bought a competitor’s product, as soon as it was announced that the Supercharger network would be opening to other makes and models. Anecdotal, sure, but it does seem to validate that the Supercharger network is/was Tesla’s ace in the hole.
Right, the primary reason I would have considered Tesla in the past was because of the Superchargers. The idea of being relegated to “the others” when it comes to charging was a huge minus for any other EV. If that advantage is gone, then its open season.
I think if they hadn’t opened the Supercharger network, they’d still only have a couple of years before it stopped being a major selling point. Range and charging speed are improving for everyone else, so they don’t need as many. Tesla still has the most locations, but Chargepoint’s not far behind and EA’s starting to actually get their uptime decent.