The last few years have felt like one ongoing discussion of the ways in which customers and dealers have had to cope with shortages of popular vehicles. Now we’re starting to see the opposite as certain segments of vehicles are finally catching up to demand and, in the case of full-sized pickups, probably exceeding it.
Welcome back to The Morning Dump, the post that tries to ingest all the news like you might ingest a giant hoagie and reproduce it in smaller, easier-to-cope-with nuggets of wisdom. Not only are pickup inventories high right now, they’re also specifically high at Stellantis. What is going on at Stellantis?
Lamborghini has hit a sales record because Lamborghini, unlike Ferrari, is happy to sell you a car. And, finally, BYD’s gotta boat.
There Are So Many Pickup Trucks Y’all
When I first described the concept of trimflation–the preference of automakers to prioritize higher trim and thus more expensive models in the face of supply constraints–I chose pickup trucks as the main evidence of this. These are major profit centers for automakers and, historically, there’s a nice spread between affordable entry-level work trucks like the Silverado WT and fancy Cowboy Cadillacs like the GMC Sierra 1500 Denali.
In the months since that article inventories have started to climb and, for the first time in a long time, there are plenty of trucks. Maybe too many trucks?
That might be the case according to S&P Global’s latest estimates:
The full-size truck is a key profit generator for the Detroit 3. But when too many are on showroom floors, deep discounting happens in a rush. At the end of December, there were 307,000 full-size pickups available, up from 229,000 the same time last year.
The number of trucks sort of depends on where you look. Here’s what carbuying site CarEdge shows for full-sized trucks:
Recently, CarEdge also showed that there are a lot of 2023 models still for sale as of the beginning of January, which might be a good place to find a deal if you’re in the market.
What’s with all these trucks? According to CarEdge‘s Zach Shefska it all comes down to price, pointing out that the average transaction price is now $66,511 for full-sized trucks according to KBB/Cox. That’s up 3.1% year-over-year, compared to an industrywide price drop of 2.4% year-over-year.
“In my humble opinion, that’s why there is a glut,” Shefska told me. “That’s also why Ford just announced 1.9% APR for 72 months. “Someone is going to have to pay to get these things moving again.”
That makes sense to me. S&P also found that discounting was ramping up at automakers:
And there’s one automaker in particular that has a lot of work to do:
Who is slashing their big pickup prices? Ram dealers, with 75% of dealer-advertised units below MSRP. The average discount is also sizably more than that of the tight pack of Chevrolet, GMC, and Ford. But even Toyota is discounting. Hot take? There is a lot of inventory out there…deals could be coming.
Again, Autopian cofounder Beau said 2024 was going to be a year where consumers have a lot more choice and a lot more power. This seems to be true in full-sized pickup trucks, especially at Stellantis.
What Is Stellantis Doing?
Of all the Detroit Three automakers, Stellantis is the most perplexing. The company had a strong 2022, but the North American part of that equation clearly owed a lot to inventory shortages and the ability of its brands to raise prices.
This year was a lot tougher, with the company seeing an overall sales decline of 1% year-over-year in a growing market. New products like the Dodge Hornet are not moving quickly and the company’s products feel old and less competitive.
Stellantis has abandoned the Super Bowl, where it historically loves to advertise. Even worse, the company is abandoning auto shows and leaving it to dealers to pick up the pieces. Here’s a report from Automotive News on what’s going on there:
As the automaker pulls out of many auto shows, dealers around Dallas are banding together to ensure potential buyers still can get up-close looks at their products and gauge them against the competition.
But the lack of corporate support will limit what attendees can see to models currently in showrooms. Upcoming vehicles such as the electric Ram 1500 REV and the plug-in 1500 Ramcharger with its onboard gasoline generator aren’t expected to appear.
Stellantis dealers will do what they can to generate exposure but will miss buzz-building vehicles such as the REV, said Charlie Gilchrist, who owns four Stellantis dealerships in the area and is working to fill the void with other members of the North Texas Automobile Dealers trade group that organizes the show.
That’s not great, and it does seem like Stellantis continues to build cars at a rapid rate and is leaving it to dealers to figure it out, though there’s perhaps some logic here.
Vehicles like the 2025 Dodge Charger Daytona EV are still far from production and the company’s current brands are better known right now for the vehicles they’re losing instead of introducing. Perhaps it’s better for Stellantis to keep its powder dry until there’s something to actually brag about.
Oh, and the company’s North American COO Mark Stewart is out, soon to be replaced by Carlos Zarlenga:
Effective February 1, 2024, Carlos Zarlenga will replace Mark Stewart to leverage further improvements in Stellantis’ performance in North America and unleash the iconic American brands portfolio potential in close cooperation with their CEOs.
Carlos Zarlenga is a seasoned leader with more than a decade of automotive experience in EMEA, Asia Pacific and Latin America, together with a strong financial background. Since he joined Stellantis in 2022 as President of Stellantis Mexico, he has delivered a year-on-year improvement in sales performance, market share and AOI, leading to the best profit level ever recorded in Mexico.
If there’s one recipe for success in the automotive industry, it’s to be a guy named Carlos.
Lamborghini Sells More Than 10,000 Cars For First Time Ever
Lamborghini has come a long way from near-obsolescence to a successful automaker, and a lot of credit goes to Volkswagen’s oversight and the leadership of the company under its longtime Chairman and CEO, the always impossibly well-dressed Stephan Winkelmann.
Seriously, I’ve met Winklemann a few times and have had dinner with him at least once and his suits are sharper than a Countach’s doors. He posted an update on LinkedIn this morning and he let slip the news that the company reached a first-ever delivery of 10,112 cars worldwide:
We delivered over 10.000 super sports cars and super SUVs for the first time during the course of last year. Playing a role in achieving this watershed achievement for Automobili Lamborghini S.p.A. is an honor for me and for everyone who worked tirelessly to reach these goals.
This is a major accomplishment based on true teamwork. But as always, we’re not stopping at individual targets. In fact, we’re more than ready to take on even more exciting new challenges in 2024.
It does feel like I’m seeing a lot more Urus crossovers lately.
As I’ve said many times before, Ferrari sells “scarcity” and requires you to buy a few cars they want to sell you before you can buy the car you actually want. Lamborghini isn’t quite there yet, it seems, and that’s not a bad place to be in a growing market for high-end automobiles.
BYD: NOW I HAVE A SHIP HO-HO-HO
As soon as I saw BYD’s press release announcing its first RoRo (roll-on, roll-off ship for transporting cars) I immediately thought of that scene in “Die Hard” wherein the Bruce Willis character writes “NOW I HAVE A MACHINE GUN, HO-HO-HO” in, I think, red ink on a bad guy’s sweater.
Maybe it’s because that BYD, like John McClane, seems like an unstoppable force lately.
Here’s the announcement, btw:
The EXPLORER NO.1, proudly bearing the BYD nameplate, will undoubtedly provide a significant boost to BYD’s international logistics capabilities amidst constrained global ro-ro shipping resources. Measuring 199.9 meters in length, the vessel also exemplifies BYD’s commitment to sustainable shipping owing to pioneering advancements in green and intelligent shipbuilding technologies. With an exceptional loading capacity of 7,000 vehicles, the EXPLORER NO.1 is equipped with an innovative dual-fuel LNG (liquefied natural gas) and conventional fuel propulsion system. Over the next two years, seven more vessels are expected to join the fleet, all integrating BYD’s energy storage battery tech and shaft generator systems, truly embodying BYD’s vision for a greener maritime transportation era.
Wang Junbao, General Manager of BYD Corporate Division, highlighted that China’s NEV industry achieved a historic milestone in the previous year with sales and production exceeding 9 million units, significantly contributing to global green mobility. The successful launch of EXPLORER NO.1 marks a pivotal step for BYD in expanding overseas markets. In line with its collaborative spirit, the company plans to not only deploy these ro-ro ships for its own operations but also engage in open partnerships, forging a new epoch for Chinese automakers on the international stage.
BYD is coming.
What I’m Listening To While Writing This
Big Thief’s “Masterpiece” album. Check out that sweet Chevy-based Horizon Class B RV.
The Big Question
What are big truck prices like in your area?
The truck deals have been quietly happening for a while. I bought a ’23 Ram 1500 in July. MSRP $51k for $40k plus taxes and fees-total $42375. Of course, no special finance rate, 6.0% locally. But with a significant down payment, it’s only $266/month. My personal limit is $400/month for ANY car payment. If it is more than that, then I CANNOT/WILL NOT afford it.
Alternative headline for the BYD story:
Wang plans on deploying shaft generator. Wants to engage in open partnerships. BYD is coming, ho.
The full size pickup market is long overdue for a crash. Like any vehicle that becomes fashionable, eventually the market gets saturated and the social trend overstays its welcome. What were once simple reliable vehicles have morphed into bloated luxury cars on stilts – 1979 Lincoln Town Cars with waist high trunks and no trunk lids.
As they fall from fashion, things once seen as virtues by buyers will quickly turn into reasons not to buy them. Their large size will no longer be seen safe and reassuring but instead something that makes them a pain to park or drive in traffic. The very high prices they sell for have already begun to turn away buyers, and that trend will soon make the people who do buy them feel foolish and self conscious rather than proud.
I currently have no prediction on what the next major market trend might be, but small trucks and luxury min-vans are showing interesting signs of life.