America Has Achieved ‘Energy Independence’ For The First Time In 40 Years: JP Morgan

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Unless you’re Fred Flinstone, your vehicle is probably powered by electricity, gasoline, or some mix of both. Where that energy comes from matters, either because you care about the cost or because you care about the larger environmental impacts (or both). If you live in these here United States then congrats, we’re finally energy-independent again.

Last night was the State of the Union, and it was conspicuous both for who was there (UAW President Shawn Fain) and for what wasn’t mentioned much (electric cars). Weird! I was kind of hoping we’d get a Year of the Hybrid shoutout; oh well.

With America finding energy independence and electric vehicles coming, eventually, it’s no surprise that Saudi Aramco and Adnoc are looking into ways to extract lithium from the brine in their oilfields. And if that doesn’t work, I guess they can try to mine spice.

And, finally, there was a bunch of Rivian news yesterday, but the most interesting to me was that the company is going to pause the building of its Georgia plant.

America Continues To Be A Net Exporter, China And Europe Not So Much

Energy Dependentece

The emergence of the United States economy in the 20th century is no great historical accident. Few places on earth still held the promise of fertile land, relative security via geographic features, and a lot of easily accessible petroleum.

Guess what? There’s still a bunch of oil and natural gas here, but it became popular in the second half of the 20th century to buy the energy we needed from other places. An entire economy sprung up not only to import, ship, and store that energy but also to make money betting on futures contracts and other derivatives.

And then a few important things happened. For one, in the early 2000s oil prices shot up, and it reinvigorated domestic production (and production in Canada). At the same time, automakers began looking for an edge in fuel economy for both regulatory and market reasons. At that point, there was no looking back, but the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, itself a net exporter of energy, seems to have accelerated the restoration of America’s energy crown (the invasion also had lots of people who were speculating on energy prices feeling a bit uncertain, which may have the interesting side effect of at least temporarily stabilizing energy prices as those traders play it a little safer).

I mention this because megabank J.P. Morgan has its 14th annual energy report out, and there are pages and pages of interesting facts, but here’s what’s got me going this morning:

The US has achieved US energy independence for the first time in 40 years while Europe and China compete for global energy resources.

Props to CNBC’s Carl Quintanilla, who pointed this out last night.

So what does this mean?

Energy economist and occasionally extra person Phillip K Verleger has said it’s possible oil could contract to as little as $40 a barrel by 2030 and makes the point that oil is the least interesting part of the energy market:

Most who follow oil remain stuck in the past when those not in the petroleum business considered oil to be important. Markets have moved beyond oil. While oil futures were once a key financial instrument for speculation, today they comprise an investment backwater. Cryptocurrencies and “Magnificent 7” shares have replaced them as the vehicle of choice for speculation.

This has serious implications for the speed of vehicle electrification and the goal of significantly reducing emissions, as J.P. Morgan’s Michael Cembalest points out in his report:

US EV sales are now ~10% when including BEVs and PHEVs8 , but they’re just 1.5% of the car fleet and even less as a share of the Class 8 truck fleet; it takes time to change the fleet when vehicles last for 12 years or more. More states are following California’s lead to phase out internal combustion engine cars; states comprising one third of the existing car fleet plan to do so. EV capital commitments by manufacturers also suggest that the future of road vehicle transport is electric, but I wonder how long it will take. BNEF estimates that the US fleet will be 50% EVs by 2037, but that requires accelerated adoption from current levels.

I wonder what BNEF would say about the following: US EV inventories on dealer lots reached an all-time high at 114 days in December 2023, double the figure from the prior year (these figures exclude Tesla and Rivian which sell direct to consumers). Ford and GM are cutting back on EV production, GM and Honda abandoned a plan to build lower-priced EVs, and a consortium of 4,000 auto dealers asked Biden to “tap the brakes” on EV mandates. In other words, Electravision EV forecasts are very optimistic and could take a LONG time.

Here’s the EV Forecast per BloombergNEF projections, btw:

Screen Shot 2024 03 08 At 10.17.25 Am

Maybe. For all the chatter about slowing EV adoption, February’s limited sales numbers (Tesla, GM and some others only report quarterly) show that some automakers are still reporting strong EV sales.

President Biden Didn’t Talk About EVs

Wapo Biden

You can see the full transcript of President Biden’s State of the Union here, but if you didn’t watch it and don’t feel like reading it, there were about as many references to Hitler as there were to electric vehicles.

Here it is:

I’m taking the most significant action on climate ever in the history of the world.

I am cutting our carbon emissions in half by 2030.

Creating tens of thousands of clean-energy jobs, like the IBEW workers building and installing 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations.

And even that was in the context of union jobs. There was a lot of talking about union jobs:

Here tonight is UAW President, Shawn Fain, a great friend, and a great labor leader.

And Dawn Simms, a third generation UAW worker in Belvidere.

Shawn, I was proud to be the first President in American history to walk a picket line.

And today Dawn has a job in her hometown providing stability for her family and pride and dignity.

Showing once again, Wall Street didn’t build this country!

The middle class built this country! And unions built the middle class!

When Americans get knocked down, we get back up!

You are never gonna keep us down! We get knocked down, but we get up again. He gives speeches that remind him of the good times. He gives speeches that remind him of the better times!

If you didn’t watch it, just assume he sang it to the tune of Tubthumping. It’s way better that way.

if you look at this as a campaign speech, and this was a campaign speech, then union labor + more jobs will get more airtime than EVs, which makes sense.

Brine, Baby, Brine

Aramco Oilfield
Photo: Aramco

Will we end up using more batteries with LFP chemistry or NCM chemistry? I don’t know. What I do know is that whatever the specific anode chemistry, electric cars need a lot of lithium. And graphite. And other stuff. But there’s a lot of lithium required.

The good news, sort of, is that lithium isn’t hard to find. In fact, the national oil companies of both the UAE (ADNOC) and Saudi Arabia (Aramco) are working hard to try and utilize the brine from oilfields to extract lithium.

This exclusive report comes from Reuters, who reports that sources are saying the companies are working on direct lithium extraction utilizing oil fields:

An issue with extracting lithium from brine is that concentration levels can be very low, making already uncertain economics less favourable.

One of the people said Aramco was working on using new filtration technology that seeks to solve the issue of concentration, while another person said Adnoc was also addressing that.

Saudi Arabia’s oil wealth means it can afford to take a financial risk and its diversification plans include establishing itself as a hub for EVs to make use of whatever lithium it produces.

A company in the country is also working on extracting lithium from seawater, which is something Saudi Arabia has a decent amount of as well.

Why Rivian Is Slowing Down In Georgia

Rivian R3x

We spent a lot of time talking about the cool Rivian R2 electric vehicle and the future, even cooler Rivian R3 and Rivian R3X. The vehicles were interesting, but listening to the livestream I was struck by CEO RJ Scaringe saying that, in order to save money and speed up production, it would start building the vehicles in Rivian’s Normal, Illinois factory.

Huh.

Rivian has already started prepping a facility outside of Atlanta, Georgia but hasn’t officially broken ground. This makes a lot of sense in the short-term as we are no longer in the ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) era and cash is hard to come by, especially for electric automakers like Rivian.

Per Automotive News:

For Rivian, which is burning through billions of dollars in cash, the pivot to its existing plant for the R2 makes sense, an industry analyst said. Rivian is also struggling with soft EV demand in the U.S. market.

“With the need to get another product onto the streets, it makes perfect sense to utilize some of that excess capacity to introduce the R2 earlier,” said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions.

Eventually, Fiorani said, Rivian will need the Georgia plant to reach the scale it needs for its more affordable models.

“If the R2 is to be a profitable high-volume model, it will take the dedicated plant in Georgia to get their costs down and production efficiency up to necessary levels,” Fiorani said.

The politics of this are interesting as the current Georgia Governor, Brian Kemp, has made the Rivian plant a big deal as it was likely to be the second biggest economic development project in the state’s history. It’ll maybe still happen, just not as soon as expected.

What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD

Most of the Super Bowl wasn’t that interesting this year and just made me more excited about baseball season returning. One of the highlights was, for some reason, Kacey Musgraves released a song where she talked about giving up weed and I guess people also figured out she was single again. As a middle-aged married dad who is not a weed dealer only the new song part of it was relevant to me, but good for her I suppose? I do love Kacey Musgraves.

The Big Question

Do you think about energy prices when buying a car? Are you worried about gas prices going up? What about electricity?

Top photo: ExxonMobil

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112 thoughts on “America Has Achieved ‘Energy Independence’ For The First Time In 40 Years: JP Morgan

  1. Honestly, I just don’t think gas prices matter at this point for me. I can’t afford a second car, much less an EV and the accompanying hassle of figuring out a charging setup at my apartment, so I need a fun car to daily drive, and need to buy gas no matter what, and a few miles per gallon here and there is as near as makes no difference to me between cars in the segments I searched.

    I straight up don’t know what my car’s rated fuel economy is, nor my wife’s, and I don’t check the price of gas when I fill up. What am I gonna do, not fill up? I do account for my fuel cost on a monthly basis, but how fluctuating prices and distances driven affect that is all just retrospective. “Oh, looks like I went through an extra tank this month. Makes sense, we had that long drive last week” is the strongest reaction I ever really have to gasoline expenditure.

    Both our cars are old and neither surpasses 3L of displacement, while my fuel bill isn’t small due to needing 93 octane, it’s just an expense like groceries and power, fluctuating prices are something to get used to rather than something to plan for.

    Now, if either I had enough money for a (decent) commuter besides the Boxster, or was in financial dire straits and couldn’t afford to choose at all, I’m sure it’d be a completely different story, I’d probably care about my car’s fuel economy and ability to drink 87 octane. Then again, that would be the case regardless of how much said fuel was worth that month.

  2. Will we end up using more batteries with LFP chemistry or NCM chemistry?”

    The answer to that is “Yes”. More of both is likely the future. LFP will be used in some applications where it makes sense. And NCM will be used in other applications. And note that there are other types of lithium batteries suitable for other types of applications:
    https://batteryuniversity.com/article/bu-205-types-of-lithium-ion

    And in the future, there are other types of batteries for specific applications… for example… Sodium-Ion is a cheap battery that has a good chance of replacing Lead-Acid batteries. And there are other chemistries being worked on:
    https://batteryuniversity.com/article/bu-212-future-batteries

    Just like there is no one ICE that satisfies all needs, there isn’t any one battery type that will satisfy all needs or applications.

    Do you think about energy prices when buying a car? “

    I’ve have always considered the cost of fuel when buying a vehicle. Hence, I’ve almost always bought vehicles that got good to great fuel economy. And I’ve also never owned a car with more than 4 cylinders. And the largest engine displacement I’ve owned was 2.4L.

    “Are you worried about gas prices going up?”

    I pay attention to it but it doesn’t worry me. I drive a Honda Fit. Fuel prices could double and I would still have no problem with the cost of fuel.

    “What about electricity?”

    I live in Ontario where a lot of electricity is generated by hydroelectric and nuclear. And a growing amount of electricity is generated by renewables.

    So the fluctuating energy prices don’t have as much of an impact on electricity rates here.

    And if electricity rates went up, then I would look at getting solar panels (something I’m looking at doing anyway).

    So while I watch rates, they don’t worry me per se.

    1. While I appreciate the quality of your analysis here, clouding the discussion with options and subtlety isn’t helping. We need clear definitive statements as to how EVs will emasculate us all and who the hell is expected to with the game this Sunday. In order to win over the marketplace, this stuff has to be easy for the people that still take their shoes and socks off to calculate their monthly payments. /S

      1. How about this:

        Here’s your choice:

        1. Get a BEV or hybrid and be a feminized gay libtard hippie (if you’re a man) or a butch libtard lesbian hippie (if you’re a woman).
        2. Get a regular ICE vehicle (gas or diesel) and be a right wing fascist Nazi racist.
  3. Yeah, I think about gas prices when buying. I remember back when gas prices went over $4/gal, in TEXAS. A lot of guys at work had F-150 and Silverados. They paid huge amount just to commute into work to be able to afford to then drive back home each week. I also remember the ’70s, though I was a little kid with nary a worry besides what kinda of lunch my mom would pack for me.

    Gas price will go up from here (in future dollar values) because I figure there will be government administrations that will make it harder to make gasoline as the older refineries close up. Add to that additional ‘sin tax’ to cover the cost of saving the planet. Also, I don’t know whether the road maintenance tax for gas will be made equitable for EVs.

    Electricity on the other hand could go either way. We are struggling just to tap into the grid for vehicle charging stations, just wait till we have to buff the grid itself. On the flip side, we might be able to finally come to some good solutions to cut coal and oil plants AND replace them with something else that won’t cost us mega buku in monthly electric bills.

    1. Also, I don’t know whether the road maintenance tax for gas will be made equitable for EVs.

      Fully-loaded big rigs and other oversized industrial vehicles don’t pay for nearly their fair share of the road wear. Passenger cars/trucks/SUVs/CUVs are a non-issue in comparison.

      1. Large commercial vehicles not paying their “fair share” (based on weight, not fuel efficiency, maybe) of maintenance from fuel tax, should not be construed as a reason for EVs not to pay some form of road maintenance . The people that are and will be driving EVs at some point are the same demographic that would be driving ICE vehicles if the EV age didn’t happen.

        I perhaps disagree with you that regular vehicles are a “non-issue” when it comes to road use and needed maintenance. Private vehicle don’t wear on a road as much per capita as a semi-tractor trailers, but they certainly play a part. Since EVs are generally heavier than ICE, they would and certainly should pay the same or a little more in road maintenance.

        Some states are adding an extra tax on annual EV registrations to take the place of a gasoline tax. I didn’t do well in algebra or calculus in school, plus I kinda hate politics, so don’t ask me for the magic formula. Times are changing and the funding of road maintenance should adapt. Maybe now is the time to make things more equitable?

        1. I remember seeing study from the Minnesota DOT concluding that the road wear is a cubic function of vehicle mass and that a fully-loaded tractor-trailer accounts for roughly 7,000 times the roadwear of the average passenger car. The road wear induced by a massive 9,000 lb Hummer EV should be about 3 orders of magnitude less than a fully-loaded 70,000 lb truck. Nevermind a 3,500 lb sedan, or a 600 lb motorcycle, or a 30 lb ebike(there are places want to tax those to using “road wear” as a “justification”).

          If things were made equitable, long-haul trucking would play a diminished role in the shipment of goods and services, and by necessity, use of rail would be greatly expanded upon. In the long run, it would offer the most cost and energy savings, and the roads would cost a lot less to maintain and use less resources doing so, allowing the various forms of road taxes to be greatly reduced altogether.

          But that doesn’t maximize money flowing to the 1% or that imaginary GDP number. It’s endless growth at all costs on a planet of finite resources instead, and that comes from our wallets, whether in the form of taxes, or corporate profit-taking.

          1. I’ve never gone digging deeply, but I’ve always heard road wear is actually proportional to the 4th power of axle weight (which ends up in the same general neighborhood of several thousand times the wear for a semi vs passenger car).

            There are some extra taxes on semis, but nowhere close to enough to cover the extra road wear. For that matter, I think gas/registration/etc taxes typically cover something like 25-50% of road maintenance.

  4. Outside of the family truckster when my kids were small, I’ve not once thought of specific metrics when buying a car… If it was cool and I liked it, I made it work.

  5. I would say it’s included in the consideration, but only relative with the other costs (depreciation, maintenance, insurance, etc). I’m an engineer with a spreadsheet, so I’m not the typical person.

    Last two cars I bought were a van for the wife (gas, runs about 18 mpg average) and a Prius Prime.

    The van is great when we need the space, and it’s held it’s value well, but we’ve only put around 6-7k miles per year on it. Because of the limit driving, the fuel costs are so low it doesn’t matter.

    The Prius Prime is my current commuter and what we use to shuffle the kids around, and we put over 15k miles per year on it. I bought it because kids trash cars and I wanted the lowest cost to get me through raising them so I can have more to spend later on.

    When the kids can afford their own cars, I’ll change out of that into something more fun. I still like to get the most out of my money, so I would likely be shopping PHEVs at that point given that I expect I’ll keep driving a lot.

  6. It hasn’t typically been a factor, mostly because I have pretty consistently shopped and owned cars that got similar mileage, rated over 30 mpg highway or mid-20s combined. I’ve thought about less efficient vehicles, like browsing midsize trucks or 4Runners, but haven’t had a need to justify them in the first place. My GTI averages the same or better than my I4 Accords did while also being the most powerful car I’ve owned. Plus I drive less now, I’m fortunate to have the flexibility to not have to commute every day if I don’t want to. It’s much better for me now than say, the late 2000s working minimum wage driving my old Maxima (which wasn’t even terrible for what it was either).

    It will be more of a factor in my next car even if just to hedge my bets against the future. I can’t really justify going backwards in efficiency with my current driving habits, but a number of things could change – my vehicle needs/type of car, if I move, etc. But I’m in no rush either.

  7. I consider the mileage when I buy not for affordability, but because I dislike waste and dependency and, while all cars are highly dependent on a large resource and logistical train (sorry, Mad Max movies), I try to make those minimums without wanting to shoot myself as I spend so much time driving and it’s one of my few real joys. For me, I won’t buy anything that’s not at least around real-world 30 mpg with reasonable weight to reduce tire wear and for less stress on drivetrain and suspension components.

    Justifiably unpopular opinion, but after having a Corolla hybrid as a loaner that would hit 55 mpg without trying and almost 70 (according to the computer) for one back road trip behind the usual doddlers, I would probably buy a GR86 with a hybrid drivetrain if it had a bit bigger engine than the Corolla’s and was still RWD with a manual (maybe the Prius’ 2.0). Might even be better to drive in everyday driving circumstances as it would have better low end and midrange torque, if less top end power.

  8. As the current owner of a hybrid, yes I think about fuel prices when buying a car. getting nearly 50 mpg while doing nearly 30k miles a year is huge. But it’s the little things that will keep me getting more electrified in my daily driver. The brake wear and transmission wear is almost non-existent and the extended time between oil changes is awesome too.

    Now that my commute went from 60 miles to 6 miles, I’m thinking about trading my HEV for a PHEV to get a full electric commute.

  9. Energy independence first time in 40yrs claim is misleading. The US has almost always had the ability to produce enough oil to cover the needs, but it’s cheaper to import, and our fields run at a lower capacity, plus our grades sell at a higher price. They have increased production since the war to cover Russian ban, but still not max. The US produces and has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia.

  10. I do think a bit about fuel costs, and then go ahead and buy whatever I want. I’m 45 and have never owned a vehicle that got more than 30 mpg, and my first 4 vehicles were V8 powered.

    I can eke out 20 mpg-ish in my 4Runner, that’s acceptable to me for what it is.

    The red line now is premium. When it was 20 cents more than regular that was no big deal, but now that it’s a dollar or more, that’s more than I’m willing to spend. It’s not that I couldn’t afford it, it’s just a psychological thing. If I didn’t go through about 20gallons of fuel a week it might be different.

    All that said, I’d love to be able to buy a hybrid for my next vehicle. If the next gen 4Runner can get mid 20’s – 30 I’d be excited.

  11. I certainly consider gas prices when buying a car, but not really in the near term. I always assume that gas is going to be more expensive than whatever the current cost is, because who the hell knows what’s in store over the long ownership of a car.

    I currently own a van that’s pretty inefficient. I will not be replacing it with anything other than a hybrid. So I guess that says something.

  12. Kacey Musgraves is amazing. The wife and I saw her on the Star-Crossed tour and she put on one hell of a show. She brought along King Princess and MUNA too. That album itself isn’t my favorite of hers but Pageant Material is one of my favorite country albums of all time. While poppier Golden Hour has no skips either.

    Love love love Kacey. My wife and I really bonded over her music early in our relationship so it has a special place in my heart. I haven’t listened to the new singles yet but the wife preordered the album on vinyl. I think I’m going to wait to listen until we have it so I can get the full experience.

  13. Nobody alive today remembers how phones used to work. When telephones were first introduced, there were a number a very irritating “growing pains”. First, the infrastructure was a bloody mess because telephony couldn’t be multiplexed, meaning every phone had to have a dedicated wire all the way to the phone company. Poles had thousands of wires on them and were a blight on every community they came to. Phone calls cost the caller money, and cost more for long-distance. You even had to have a separate bill for that service.
    On top of that, some calls required interaction with a human “operator” in order to complete. Also, the end-user hardware platform was rudimentary in the extreme and offered absolutely no options, customization, or alteration whatsoever. In fact, you didn’t own it, it wasn’t even your property.
    We’re just over one decade into commercial EVs. Calm down and let the technology mature, just like telephony has.

    1. Great example. I also imaging that 100 years ago when cars were becoming more common, gasoline was probably pretty difficult to come across in certain areas of the country.

      1. There are still signs going over the Manastash and Umtanum Ridges on I-84 in Eastern Washington telling people to turn off their A/C to prevent radiator boilover. It’s a holdover from the pre-malaise era when cooling systems absolutely sucked and running A/C uphill in the heat would, indeed, cause a boilover.

        The other thing that used to be common (I remember them dying out in the 80’s) was the small-town mechanic’s garage right by the freeway every couple dozen miles along the interstate.

        Many people seem to have forgotten (or at least take for granted) the quantum leap in reliability and efficiency in ICE vehicles that has happened even just over the last 40 or so years. It will happen to EVs, too. They just need time.

    2. Kids today don’t even believe me when I tell them we used to have to pay 10 cents for every text message. No one is going to believe your little fairy tales, pal. Human operators… nonsense!

        1. I had a friend that would get BIG MAD if you sent a text. Like so mad they wouldn’t respond until they saw you in person so they didn’t have to pay to text back.

    3. Except that the two are not analogous. Telephones weren’t known to be contributing to serious damage to our planet — so, calming down and letting things take whatever time they need to mature on their own might not be the best option.

      1. Our transition to EVs will help with our atmosphere problem. Unfortunately, it won’t help with our resource-extraction-and-processing-in-third-world-countries problem.

        1. That is a weak argument. Our atmosphere problem is reaching a threshold where a compounding effect is expected to be irreversible — meaning that if all the excess atmospheric CO2 could magically vanish overnight, the warming may well still continue due to melt of reflective polar ice and cessation of ocean currents that allow for longitudinal heat exchange. If that risk was taken as seriously as the situation warrants, many resource extraction (and purification) downsides would have been overcome long ago.

        2. EVs could help with resource extraction if the things are designed to be repaired without proprietary software/tools gatekeeping the repair process. EVs offer the possibility of a car to last a lifetime. While I have my gripes with all of the tech-bloat in modern EVs, some of them are proving themselves to be able to routinely last 300-500k+ miles before any expensive repairs are needed. Albeit, those miles must be racked up before the battery pack’s shelf life begins to severely limit its usable range as degradation progresses.

          Unfortunately, with modern “safety” regulations being the guide, modern cars in general are horrendously expensive to repair during collisions, and modern EVs are horrendously difficult to repair when a mission-critical subsystem fails from just general use. If we had cars designed to be economically repairable coupled with an EV drive system that uses modular/replaceable/user-programmable batteries/controllers/chargers/ect., EVs could potentially cut the overall per-mile ecological footprint of the automobile to 1/4 or less of the current ICE car, from cradle to grave. Modern ones don’t do that, and the ones that come closer are made by a manufacturer that really knows what they’re doing(BYD, Tesla).

          Time will tell how the recent crop of EVs hold up, but I’m not optimistic that most of them will prove themselves to be a net benefit to the environment. For the EV to show a net benefit over a comparable ICE from the standpoint of CO2, it does have to rack up 6-digit mileage. There are a large variety of non-renewable resources that go into building them, however, so ideally, they will last at least as long as the typical ICE and be repairable at least as easily. Except they’re not. They’re fodder for landfills when 10-15 years old, regardless of mileage. Many of them might have 500,000 miles, and many of them might have 50,000 miles, when they are junked in 10-15 years.

          Planned obsolescence will doom EV adoption and/or the viability of the automobile as transportation in the future if not addressed. There currently exists no good recycling infrastructure for their batteries and components, and the resources that build them are not infinite. Building EVs to conform to a zeitgeist of planned obsolescence is a total misuse of the technology and an insult to the minds that developed it and an insult to what it can offer us.

    4. “meaning every phone had to have a dedicated wire all the way to the phone company”

      Look at this young’un takin ’bout his dedicated lines. Living the good life while the rest of us were on party-lines.

      1. Party lines started out pretty big but got smaller in the early 20th. For the most part, if you could afford a phone, you could afford your own line. Party lines were gone by the 1960’s.

        1. they were still around in the early 80s around these parts. Not in any great number but not long gone either.

          they didn’t totally phase-out until the late 80s and early 90s. But by then they were really uncommon.

          fun times

        2. We had a party line through the late 1970s. The parents of a friend of mine in high school had a party line through the mid-1980s. At that point the phone company wasn’t installing new ones, at least not in our area, but hadn’t yet required people to give up existing ones.

            1. In our rural area in the ’70s and ’80s the monthly bill was about the same with either a party line or a private line, so that wasn’t really a factor, but it would have cost each customer a fair amount to replace a party line with a private line, which meant as long as the former served our needs, why bother? When the phone company finally got around to upgrading the equipment in the exchange in town, they paid most (maybe all?) of the conversion costs for those still on party lines, as these were no longer supportable on the new equipment.

    5. And now we need yet another stupid account and password (even two factor authentication) just to go to the bathroom! Effin’ googlesoftbook apps…

      *Shakes fist at AWS. Azure, etc.

    6. I still remember – back in the dark days of rotary dials – having to make an appointment for an overseas call. The operator would then call both parties at the appointed time and make sure of the connection before starting the meter. The cost was a lot, a couple of bucks a minute. So our calls to grandma lasted maybe 10 minutes. Sometimes that was a blessing if grandma had Alzheimers. The phones were also attached to the wall and those phone cords were a significant trip hazard when the caller stretched them out looking for a bit of privacy and quiet.

      Now Zoom video calls to those same places are free (or at least I’m not the one paying). If Grandmas Alzheimer’s kicks in she’ll never know you’re on a split screen watching cat videos while she tells the same story yet again. That’s if she can use Zoom at all.

      What a world!

  14. I didn’t look once at MPG when buying our last cars. Depreciation is the largest driver of cost of ownership by a wide margin. To the extent I’m worried about cost I focus on the purchase price and avoid financing interest.

    1. Even if it was more expensive per mile to operate our Bolt I would still buy it just for the convenience of not having to stop at a gas station ever again.

      It’s funny that most EV haters talk about wasting time charging… But when it comes to daily use if you don’t road trip often and if you have charging at home it’s actually more of a waste of time to own an ICE car. Which is ironic.

        1. I do kinda miss the lure of the quick snack and hours-old roller food. There is some nostalgic part of me that misses the experience. Maybe just because it’s such a integral part of people lives from an early age. I remember sitting in the back of the station wagon while my dad filled up.

        2. My daughter and I have a favorite truck stop just outside the city just because they have unique toys and 16(!) different slurpee flavors. I have never gotten gas there lol

      1. For my use (only one to two road trips a year), I calculated it up, and going electric saves me time overall, at least up to about 40 mpg (more on a single road trip year). And I’d rather take that time to stop and have a leisurely lunch when driving to visit family instead of having to stop to gas up after a busy day at work.

      2. You point that out and all of a sudden, everyone they know has a 300 mile round trip commute in sub-zero temperatures, and the only electricity they get at their home is from a dog running on a treadmill 20 minutes per day. And then there’s the bimonthly 1500 mile per day road trip they casually take while towing a livestock trailer.

        1. Trips are definitely inconvenient.

          What it comes down to is that there are a lot of people that don’t like change. Whatever the change is, they don’t like it. They find reasons, but so many times it just boils down to “I don’t like change”. And that’s fine.

          1. …but so many times it just boils down to “I don’t like change”.

            I can respect the people who just own up to it, but that’s a rarity in my experience. What rubs me the wrong way is when people want to act like there’s a reason beyond that, so they try to justify it with all sorts of misinformation that, in turn, influences other people unfairly.

            Kinda like the people who go all NIMBY on EV chargers for some false and contrived reason, then poo-poo EVs for problems that would be solved by improved charging infrastructure.

          2. Even the trip inconvenience seems to be shrinking, at least on paper. Might make a bigger difference for people with iron bladders who eat gas station food while moving, but when I’ve run it through a calculator based on past trips the extra time is minimal starting around 200KW charging and 280+ mile nominal range (with a lot of error bars based on real vs nominal range, season, etc). Especially if Tesla’s charging network is an option.

            Most of the EVs now seem to be right around that line, and are about one refresh or generation from being firmly above it. At least for longer-range trims.

  15. Energy prices were one of the reasons to get a bolt back when I was commuting 75 miles round trip, going from $200/month in gas to basically nothing (with a solar install on the roof) was quite nice. If the car lasts ~200,000 miles without any major issues, it’ll more or less pay for itself in fuel and maintenance savings vs. an ICE hatchback.

    The bigger driver though is trying to minimize the costly mess we leave behind for future generations to clean up. The numbers I see right now for direct air capture and sequestration of CO2 are around $600-700/ton, or ~$6-7/gallon gas, and while mitigation for this will hopefully go down in cost in the future, I basically view burning a gallon of gasoline as the equivalent of leaving a cost of somewhere in the $3-7 range for future generations to pay. I know EVs are far from perfect, but a small, efficient EV combined with a solar install was/is the best thing available while still driving.

    1. The only cost effective and most ecologically friendly way to sequester carbon from air is still the old school way.

      Plants. Ideally in peat swamps that will eventually become coal or in lumber forests.

  16. I think about energy prices when buying a vehicle, but not much. My Silverado only sees regular use in the summer, because I don’t like gas mileage in the teens. But I still have the damn thing, and I could do without it. I try to commute on electric with my PHEV as much as I can (sometimes I need some heat to defrost, sometimes I hit the gas hard enough to use gas), but that’s not just the cheap hydro power here. It’s mostly that plugging in at home is more convenient than stopping at a gas station.

    But I do consider efficiency when shopping. Not based on energy prices, but based on my own preference. I’m not going to prioritize it enough to end up in a cramped subcompact for efficiency’s sake or spend twice as much or something, but I’m going to consider the efficiency of competitive options. I’d rather drive the more efficient vehicle, if I can get what I want in it.

    Right now, I’m looking at an EV as my next vehicle. I like the immediate acceleration, the fact that I’ll plug in at home most of the time, and a quieter ride (not true of all EVs, but the ones I’m looking at are quieter than most of the gas/hybrid options I’m comparing against). But it’s not because of energy prices.

  17. I can’t see the softened sales getting better unless prices come down. When those battery factories in the US finally start churning them out, maybe, but that’s an awfully optimistic hope and won’t occur for several more years.

  18. Solar’s being installed next week, so I want an EV to capitalize. Thinking about gambling on a used Hertz Tesla.

    Otherwise energy costs don’t come into play on vehicle choice.

  19. The obsessive focus on gas prices in our society really does us a disservice when it comes to rationally considering trade-offs.

    If the average person drives 12,500 miles a year in a 25 mpg vehicle, they will use 500 gallons of gas annually. A $1/gallon rise in prices, while usually drawing apocalyptic coverage in the media, amounts to something like $40 more per month for the average driver (or barely more than a dollar a day if you prefer).

    Obviously there are some people for whom $40/month really is a big deal. And the intention of this post is not to minimize them. But those people are not the ones buying new cars.

    Buy what you want has always been my motto. And there’s nothing wrong with being thrifty. But if you’re in a position to drop $40,000+ on a new vehicle, don’t pretend its to save money on gas, and try not to lose your mind when the gas station raises its prices by 30 cents or whatever. Odds are it affects you mentally a lot more than financially.

    1. Not to argue here at all. Good points. Most of the regular folks don’t have an extra $400 in cash though should the shit hit the fan in their life. I know because that’s how we grew up.

      Financial management is/should be a priority for most of us. Buy what you want is a great motto. Yet the majority can barely afford the current monthly note these days. Saving the hypothetical $40 bucks on gas is not an insignificant amount to someone whose is feeling strapped for cash.
      And feeling constantly financially stressed leads to constant mental stress. As such, the rational way to help reduce that stress is to buy cheap gas, and to pay attention to the current asking price.

      To those that can afford new cars, thanks. You keep industry going, and support jobs.

      1. I agree with both of you. I say buy what you want, that you can actually afford. I will not ever be a new car buyer. The math doesn’t work for me even if the money is there.

        But outside of that, I drive 100+ mile commute 3 times a week. I can’t afford to drive my wifes truck on 35s getting low teens mpg. But if gas crashed in price, in theory I could. I still wouldn’t want to, but its enough that it totally changes the math in the used space. It would almost certainly result in me driving my Travelall for my commute more often, since it also gets mediocre gas mileage, but now I could afford it better.

        1. But historically gas prices go through cycles, so it’s short sighted to buy a gas guzzler if gas prices will affect your finances. What’s irritating are people who buy a Yukon Denali then bitch about gas prices and get angry at the government.

          1. I agree. Its terribly shortsighted to replace an economic car with a gas guzzler. Personally, I play in a niche market of buying mostly unwanted garbage for low prices, so I own a truck, a car, an suv, a motorcycle, and a variety of project cars, and total value is probably still less than $10K :D. So I switch out what I drive some based on gas prices, but I own them all all the time regardless.

        2. To me, new cars only start making sense if you’re looking at a custom order with an exact set of options and colors, and I’ll never have the money for anything with enough options to make that worth it.

          1. Yeah me neither. And honestly, if its REALLY important, I would be willing to find a desirable color, and then pay Katskins for some new upholstery. Really, I want an upholstery machine anyway, so I can take a crack at sewing up my own.

            1. Same, for me it’s more so about those REALLY high-end cars with optional active suspension, power seats, active steering, sports packages, uprated brakes, etc. It’d be hard to find one at a dealer that has all the performance goodies but not the driver aids and other comfort/convenience stuff that’s more annoying than useful. Think of the Porsche 911, where between all the trims and options it’s theoretically possible to never make 2 identical ones. I mean, I prefer the old ones, but it’s only that kind of customization that could ever drive me to buy new.

      2. Most of the regular folks don’t have an extra $400 in cash though should the shit hit the fan in their life. I know because that’s how we grew up.

        I just want to push back here a bit because most of the statistics about how “the average family can’t cover a $400 expense” are pushed by shady payday loan companies and the like trying to sell you something.

        The median savings account balance in the US is $8000.

        https://www.usnews.com/banking/articles/the-average-savings-account-balance#:~:text=Are%20you%20curious%20how%20your,%2C%20age%2C%20education%20and%20race.

        1. Curious, does this number account for people who have no savings account at all. Or is this a median that is based on a count of existing accounts and their balances. I imagine there is a fair number of people on the lower portion of the pay scale who don’t even have a savings account open, only checking.

          1. Upon more careful reading, the stat is for “transaction accounts”, so both checking and savings combined. The headline is a bit misleading.

            It’s not clear if the 4-5% of people with *no* bank account are counted as a balance of zero, but I suspect they are just not included.

            1. Keep in mind, the average credit card balance in the US is something like 6k. Nevermind the pile of other debts the people who only have 8k total in available cash might have.

                1. I would say I’d bet it’s the people with balances that are doing the complaining about prices, but as others have mentioned above, being hysterical about gas prices appears to be something basically all Americans are willing to do regardless of if it actually affects them or not.

        2. Good point, but everyone’s situation varies. And inflation is a bitch. Payday loan cos suck. Yet I bank at the biggest bank in my state. Recently my banker told me that the majority of those with cash deposits have been withdrawing at what is an unusually high rate. To cover expenses. BTW, the average credit card debt is way up again. To near record amounts. Now over 6K. That combined with the interest rate is substantial, even if you got 8K in the bank.

          I do appreciate “facts.” And statistics as well. But both can be bent to suit those using them, and usually are to an extent. As such, I tend to pay more attention to what is easily observable and heard in my own small world.

          Thanks, appreciate it.

    2. Oh mother of god, my dad is the absolute poster-child for this kind of behavior. Right now he’s easily past “next-door millionaire” status with right around $100,000 worth of Mopar-or-no-car parked out in his garage. Those vehicles get driven a combined total of maybe 6,000 pampered miles a year. If gas goes up by a nickel I’ll hear about it. Usually it’s accompanied by “that goddamn government”.

      Meanwhile, when I pointed out just how stupid-cheap the daily operating costs are on my 2012 Volt. I get a variation of “Well, I wouldn’t want something like that, I can afford the fuel.” Great, no problem, in fact it sounds like it’s time to graduate to a Hellcat. But, JFC don’t constantly flip out about gas prices if it’s not really a concern.

      1. My FIL is the same way. When they come back from their winter home in FL (which is bigger than most people’s primary home) one of the first things I hear is how the price of gas compares to what it was in FL. “oh wow, gas is 60 cents cheaper up here”. Then we go to his second garage where he keeps his 5-8 cars (depending on how bored he has been).

        It’s just odd how fixated on gas prices some people are. But they could care less that they are heating and cooling 3 properties and paying insurance and maintenance on 8 cars.

    3. It really is obsessive. I’ll watch people around me get all bothered by gas prices (visibly stressed) and then go to Starbucks once a day to pay 5$ for a cup of coffee.

        1. that’s a fair point. My comment was more directed at the level of agitation they exhibit when it comes to gas prices. Nobody really likes paying for gas, so I’m not saying they should like it or even be OK with it. It’s just the drama (and visible distress it seems to cause them) like they’re gunna go broke and have to stop feeding the kids.

    4. My coworkers as an example, all own large trucks. They lose their MINDS over rising gas prices. I would say that they’re overreacting, but I know how much money they make, and I also know how much money those trucks cost. I couldn’t possibly afford a payment like that? So maybe they really can’t afford the extra 40$ a month, despite their willingness to spend 40k+ on a vehicle.

      1. Well if they drive a large truck, their increase will be more than $40.

        But again, if they can afford a new truck, they could instead afford a used one with a smaller payment or a vehicle that gets better mileage.

        I drive a truck that gets 11 mpg and a sedan that gets 18 mpg on premium, but I can’t imagine loudly and seriously complaining about gas prices. Driving those vehicles is a choice I made, paying for gas is a byproduct of it, and accepting that fact is part of being a mature person.

        1. I respect the ability to see reality, and accept it, haha. You made a decision to buy vehicles that aren’t good on gas, and accepted the cost of ownership based on sound assumptions. Unfortunately that sort of wisdom has been in short supply around here.

          So many people I know get riled up about gas prices as if someone tricked them into commuting to work in something that’s obviously not efficient.

    5. I think it’s because gas is one of the few things people consume on a daily basis that has a fluctuating price advertised by the side of the road. Even if you only fill your tank once or twice a month, you pass by a gas station several times a day. For most other necessities, we only really see the price when it comes time to buy it, making it harder to consciously track costs and keeping it from being front of mind.

  20. My car takes premium so I try not to look at the gas prices. Really though I don’t drive nearly enough miles for gas prices or mileage to be a serious deciding factor in which vehicle I purchase. Electric rates have gone up significantly in TX since The Freezepocalypse but they’re still much lower than other states. So an EV wouldn’t save me enough money to make me trade in my car today but never having to stop at another gas station would be a benefit.

  21. I’m fortunate to have a company van. I occasionally glance at the total for a fill up & wince. Both my cars take premium, so I’ve learned not to look—unless I’m deep in WV on a drive. Then I really feel sorry for those who have to use the good stuff there.

  22. I don’t really think about energy prices when buying a car.

    I work from home and my wife is a stay-at-home mother. Gas could cost $10 a gallon and we’d hardly notice with how little we drive.

    While buying an EV or PHEV would be great, it would only make sense to replace the van with one. I’m not going near the Pacifica PHEV. Even if Toyota or Honda had a PHEV van, it still wouldn’t make financial sense to trade in our existing van for one.

  23. Yes to both. As an old on a fixed budget, it is a concern. Our local gas has gone up a good bit the last 2 weeks. Close to 20%. Of course the media has conditioned our reactions by saying “this happens every spring due to refinery change over issues, and spring gas demand.” It also happens each Fall. Same excuses used for the cost bump. The story feels like bull shit at this point.

    Any refinery workers out there that can elaborate on this “issue?”

    I don’t worry so much about the electric bill though. As long as I have a neighbor 30 feet away, and a nice long extension cord. (sort of serious)

    So a hybrid will for certain be my next new car/truck choice. YMMV, but I really don’t DGAF. /s

      1. Sorry but it does. Will be doing exactly this. For a “last” ride. Before the dirt nap.
        A fixed budget does not imply lack of cash, or resources. It only means that your income may be limited. As such the term “budget” is appropriate.

        “What exactly does not compute?”

        Someone who understands that may not understand your comment though. Can you elaborate please? Thanks.

        1. Technically, everyone lives on a fixed budget. I am still in the workforce for 40-45 hours a week. Just because I continue to work doesn’t mean I can flex my budget up or down. I still bring in a set amount of income and choose to live within that amount.

          1. Disagree somewhat. The number of those with declining credit scores would tend to indicate otherwise. As well as rate of consumers filing for debt relief in the courts. Some folks just have trouble with being able to keep any budget realistic. And to those who have access to borrow even more, it can and does become an issue often, eventually.

            Because of these points above, I don’t believe that everyone “technically lives on a fixed budget” by any means. I think my comment was maybe misunderstood here?

            We are very close to the same levels of personal debt as we were in 2008. History shows that it repeats to a degree. Not to be a Chicken Little here, but when there are wolves in the woods I like to pay attention. Appreciate your POV. Thanks.

    1. A lot of refineries schedule big predictive maintenance events for spring and fall. That leads to temporary shut downs, which leads to less output, which leads to higher prices. Power plants also do their big shut downs in spring and fall, but the prices they charge consumers are regulated by the state utility commissions.

      Although, one reason they do the turnarounds in the spring and fall is that there tends to be lower demand at those times, so the starting prices should be lower in the first place. I’ve never bothered to check if this was the case since I drive like 6K miles per year.

  24. I always considered energy prices when doing any substantial transportation purchases. I bought my Cruze Eco to hedge against fluctuating gas prices. I bought more efficient tires for my camper (saving 5 gallons of fuel every 1000 miles) when it needed new tires. Same with tires for my cars. A warehouse club membership more than pays for itself in fuel savings. The extra cash back on gas from their credit card is a bonus. I like paying as little for energy as possible. Transportation needs a lot of energy. Ergo, I try to minimize that expense.

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