You’ve probably seen some foreboding headlines about the electric vehicle market getting super weird in the U.S., with inventories suddenly super-high after months of hype and excitement. What happened? It’s indeed more complicated than you think, but also… not.
That leads off this midweek, mid-July edition of The Autopian’s morning news roundup. I hope you’re staying cool out there. Also on our menu today: a look at new and used car prices evening out, rough news on the Ford quality front (again!) and how Porsche’s responding to the Apple CarPlay takeover. Let’s get started, we haven’t a moment to waste!
Are EVs Losing Steam Or Are They Still Just Too Damn Expensive?
This year was supposed to be the year that EVs went mainstream—the year more and more people broke up with gasoline amid sweet new tax breaks and unprecedented public investments into charging. Now, midway through the year, we’re seeing what Axios called a “growing mismatch between EV supply and demand” that’s leading to EVs spending twice as much time on dealer lots as gasoline cars. In other words, there are lots of electric cars on lots but not a lot of buyers.
I’ve read some takes this week that are balanced and thoughtful (like Axios‘ report) and some unhinged, doom-and-gloom takes often from hardcore EV naysayers that I won’t even link to. I’m pro-electrification, but I’m also a cold, hard pragmatist and it’s not my job to sell these things—merely to tell you what’s going on. So here’s my read on the situation:
- People are interested in EVs, and we’ll see more of the market move that way over time
- It’s pretty dependent on charging options, which still aren’t good enough and probably won’t be for a couple of years
- This situation is more than likely temporary, not permanent
- Losing the EV tax credits on everything but a few U.S.-made models is hurting, not helping, electric growth
- Rising interest rates really aren’t helping here either…
- …because these things are still too damn expensive for a lot of people.
That’s it! That’s my exclusive, hot-take analysis of this situation, the kind of expertise you’re only gonna find here, folks. (Make sure to subscribe if you don’t!)
Seriously, it ain’t hard. I dove into this at Heatmap earlier this week but the average EV price is still around $60,000 in America and that’s actually gone up this year. This, despite the huge glut of EVs coming to the market.
Here’s Reuters today diving into this a little deeper with some analysis I like. Among their data: General Motors had 50 days’ worth of Cadillac Lyriqs available by the end of June (the industry average is 52 days) but those are barely on the road yet; the Ford F-150 Lightning is at 86 days and the Mach-E is at 113 days; and the Volkswagen ID.4 is at 131 days. All of those cars qualify for EV tax credits, too.
Rising inventories and price-cutting could represent only a short-term pause in EV market growth. But they could be signals that boosting U.S. EV sales above the current 7% market share level will be more costly and difficult than expected, even with federal and state subsidies.
Automakers North America have billions of dollars in EV-related investments riding on how the next several quarters play out. If production of EVs continues to outpace demand, automakers will have to choose between slashing prices and profit margins, or slowing assembly lines.
And I’m not sure they’ll cut prices on these things much, because they’re already (often) so unprofitable to begin with. Automakers can make big claims about wanting to go “all-electric” in a decade or whatever, but that’s just talk until it meets the cold, hard reality of shareholder capitalism.
Take that sentence I emphasized in the paragraph above. Next several quarters? That’s a tough line for automakers to walk with their investors, considering the EV thing will be a long-term, possibly permanent investment. But in America, your company lives and dies by strings of quarterly results.
Now, why am I convinced this isn’t a permanent lack of interest in EVs? I’d point to Tesla for that one. I’m also by no means an Elon apologist but the company sold almost 500,000 EVs globally just in Q2, and according to estimates about 310,000 of those were just Model Ys and Model 3s sold in the U.S.
Why, you ask? Well, Tesla still has the best charging network (though it won’t be exclusive forever now) and… wait for it… they have the best deals on EVs. Range, too, but when you factor in all of those cars, these are still the best pound-for-pound electric deals you can get right now. They just are, and I say that as someone who’s getting tired of seeing the damn Model Y everywhere I go.
I think if Tesla demand was cratering amid all of its own price cuts, the alarm should really be sounded for the EV market. But you absolutely cannot blame people, right now, for not wanting a $60,000 electric crossover that lives and dies by ChargePoint and Electrify America.
More from Reuters on that:
“Price cuts do show that we’re in sort of an equilibrium of demand and supply and price so when sales aren’t there, they’re going to be dropping price,” said Mark Wakefield, co-head of consultancy AlixPartners’ automotive practice. “Tesla in particular has the room to do that.”
Wakefield said it is too soon to declare that U.S. EV demand has hit a plateau. “We see it as choppy growth, but continued growth,” he said.
But even if the automakers can’t throw discounts on EVs right now, you know dealers might. Here’s a (technically used because it’s a 2022 model but with only 2,500 miles) Hyundai Ioniq 5 I found that’s just $36,000. That’s… very tempting. Same case with this Mustang Mach-E. So if you want one of these things, you may be able to take advantage of some deals if you know where to look.
Update: After I published this story, I noticed our old pal Tom McParland spotted the same trend and wrote about it for Jalopnik (which doesn’t surprise me, nobody knows their stuff more than he does.) Check this out to learn more about some strong EV deals right now.
New Car Prices Are High But At Least Stabilizing
Yesterday, Matt wrote about the gradual decline in used car prices and why it’s kinda good news but also not anything mind-blowing. Basically, interest rates—which are always higher on used cars—make it so you may just get a better overall deal on something new right now.
Here’s more on this weird situation from the Detroit Free Press:
On the new car side, the average price Americans paid for a new vehicle in June was $48,808, up 1.6% from the year-ago period, Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive company, said Tuesday. That is the smallest year-over-year price gain since the start of the global pandemic, Kelley Blue Book noted.
And, compared with the start of the year, transaction prices are down 1.7%, or $865 from $49,388 in January. It is the largest January to June tumble in the past decade, according to Kelley Blue Book.
“The fact that average transaction prices are up a meager 1.6% year-over-year in June is notable,” said Michelle Krebs, executive analyst at Cox Automotive. “A year ago, the industry was looking at transaction prices that were consistently up 10% to 12% year-over-year. With no inventory in place, it was inflation gone wild.”
Stability is good. And more and more folks I talk to in the industry say the worst is probably over with regard to the chip shortage. Now we just have to wait for all the new car prices to go back down to their pre-pandemic levels! I’ll be on my front lawn if anyone needs me.
Porsche: If You Can’t Beat Apple, Join ‘Em
Yeah, not many people are confident that GM can do a better job with infotainment systems than freaking Apple. I get where the automakers are coming from in not wanting to cede their dashboards (and data) to tech companies and I hardly have the desire to defend a company like Apple, but consumers want what they want for a reason.
Porsche, on the other hand, is just leaning into it and making it so you don’t have to switch back to the “main” menu to operate certain controls—they now work through Apple CarPlay instead. Imagine that! From Car and Driver:
Apple CarPlay just got a little more useful for Porsche owners. Underscoring further just how much owners prefer third-party software like CarPlay over the native manufacturer systems, Porsche has updated its My Porsche app software, allowing for further support within Apple CarPlay. Users can now make changes to things that would otherwise only be controlled by the manufacturer software. That means things like cabin sound profiles, climate control, and ambient lighting in the cabin can now be changed directly from Apple CarPlay menus.
The new functions can also be added to new “wellness modes” like Relax, Warmup, and Refresh, all using CarPlay. Possibly the most exciting part of the update comes from the ability to use voice activation and Siri for things like changing climate control or radio settings.
Useful. And it’ll be fascinating to see how these different OEMs deal with the Apple CarPlay and Android Auto showdowns they’ll inevitably face.
Another Day, Another Ford Quality Issue
It wouldn’t be a day ending in y if we didn’t have another Ford quality issue to cover. This one deals with some recent Ford Escape crossovers with an apparent welding issue that could mean you inadvertently escape from your Escape. Via Automotive News:
NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation said it received 118 reports from U.S. vehicle owners alleging “a failure of the spot welds in the check arm bracket for the front doors” on 2020-21 Ford Escape vehicles, according to a federal document released Tuesday.
There have been 25 reports of minor injuries and one report of minor property damage related to the issue, the agency said.
Many of the owners reported hearing a “popping noise” when opening the front doors. NHTSA said continued use of the doors could result in a dislodged door check, potentially causing a failure to latch when closed, a failure to open or inadvertently opening while driving.
If you own one of these cars, you may want to get a dealer to check it out. Or learn to tuck and roll.
Your Turn
Look: the world just does not need another $60,000 electric crossover. It needs, like, more electric Toyota Corollas. But who will be the first to make that? Tesla? BYD? Toyota itself? And would people actually buy it?
Which is true of all cars. Without the artificially low (and extremely destructive) 0% interest rates of the Great Recession, the whole house of cards would’ve collapsed. Instead of turning into equality beyond that of the gilded age.
And they’re only going to get worse. Guess what happens in laissez-faire supply and demand economies? That’s right: demand goes up, so the price goes up. And up. And up. Especially when there is a very finite supply and the demand goes from 0-60 in three seconds.
Lithium, cobalt, steels, take your pick. And of course, the producers of these see automakers profiteering and they go “well why shouldn’t we?” It’s a feedback loop. Driven by the Almighty, Sacred Shareholders, who Must See Profit At Any Cost.
Except this is, of course, pure bullshit. Pure, unmitigated, bullshit.
Because transaction prices are still up 12%. They are not “up 1.6%.” You are still paying an extra 12%+ for your car, period. There was no decline. Prices have only gone up. Prices will only continue to go up. By what amount is academic.
It’s also a deliberate statistical lie. The Ford Maverick’s pricetag increased over 20% in 3 years with absolutely no changes. Does that sound like a ‘12%’ increase? No. Because it’s not. But by using the magic of statistics, you can lump cars with 20% and 30% price increases, use some Magic Math to winnow the data, and tell people it’s raining while you’re pissing on their head.
Sure. It’s useful when you need to compare year over year. It’s also useful when you want to lie about reality. “It was inflation gone wild”? No. It was profiteering. Profiteering that remains fully in place. And will continue.
This is surprising to a limited extent. The fact of things is that Porsche refused to support Android Auto at all, even in cars that supported CarPlay, for legal reasons. Google requires letting them hoover up and claim ownership of a shitload of private information. Without disclosing it to users. And transferring it to countries without any legal protections.
Which obviously, is super illegal in civilized countries.
It’s also why I’m a little surprised by this. Because there’s no way Apple is letting Porsche own or control data on their servers. And sending that kind of sensitive information to a third-party in a country without rule of law, that’s a very big no-no. And that’s interfacing fairly directly cross-directionally, which traditionally, is not something Apple likes to bless.
So I’m very curious as to how exactly it was implemented.
Past Me: “Oh, well, that’s not too big a deal… it’s just the check bracket. Definitely not good in an accident or if you open the door too wide. I’ve seen it. It’s not that bad.”
Current Me:
Why the FUCK is the NHTSA approving fucking ANYTHING Ford is making?! I’m serious. If we had an actual regulator, Ford’s ass wouldn’t be allowed to sell a single goddamn car right now. Doors opening too wide is a minor safety issue. Doors NOT CLOSING from a CHECK STRAP failure? That’s not a check strap failure; that’s HINGE failure. (Strikers are partially self-aligning, for fuck’s sake! The door will pull up into line!)
And this is their what, THIRD injury involved safety recall in the past 3 months Somebody check me on that, seriously. July 10, full recall of MY20-22 Escape, Maverick, and Corsair due to severe underhood fire risk. 50,000 Mach-E’s recalled for battery defects resulting in fires (which they allegedly fixed with a software update. NOT how it works, people.) Over 175,000 Broncos recalled in May because people couldn’t reach the goddamn seat belts. Nevermind how that got through QC.
That’s just the safety recalls I’m recalling off the top of my head.
One, until you’ve driven a Toyota Corolla, do not wish for more of them. They are utterly miserable, garbage cars. The doors may not fall off, but they’ll sure sound like they’re trying to. Even over the intolerable road noise. Nevermind the absolutely inexcusable CVT.
Which is why people wouldn’t buy it and don’t buy Corollas. People do not want miserable, poorly assembled penalty boxes. They will only accept poorly assembled junk when it is more convenient for them, a means to flaunt wealth, or they have a serious mental illness.
Know what sells Corollas? They’re cheap. That’s it. They are the car that customers don’t want, but Joe Consumer with a discharged bankruptcy can get financed or even get a lease for one. Bob Commuter can’t afford the insurance premiums for a Prius (which are truly insane,) but the Corolla gets ‘good enough’ gas mileage and fits his budget on a lease deal. He can suffer it for 3 years. Tim Teen needs a first car. $23k puts him in a car with all those nice modern safety features, and it makes it cheaper than the 2015 Wrangler with 70,000 miles he was drooling over. (I wish I was joking.)
Nobody goes into the Toyota dealer and says “I GOTTA HAVE A COROLLA, THAT’S THE BESTEST CAR!” They trudge in, dragging their feet with a look of resignation and defeat.
“What can I do for you today?” asks the salesperson in their most cheerful tone, hoping to at least bring some joy to this person’s life.
“I need a car,” they reply with a long sigh.
Wonderful! That’s the salesperson’s job! “I can absolutely help with that, what were you looking for? Perhaps a Rav4? We’re having a special on Camry leases this week too. Or maybe this beautiful CPO Prius? Just off lease last week!”
And here, our purchaser realizes their fate. They look longingly at the soft fabric seats of the base model Camry and sigh wistfully. “No, no,” they admit. “What can I lease for under $350 a month?” Knowing no matter what it is, their insurance will be over $1250 a year.
“Oh.” The salesperson realizes their shared fate, a pit forming in their stomach. “Can I offer you a water? Did… did you have a color in mind?” They know now there is nothing they can truly do to help. There is nothing they can do to give this customer a pleasant experience.
All they can do is try to make the process of acquiring a Corolla as brief as possible.
Almighty Sacred Shareholders, or A. S.S. for short ????
Your Corolla shopping experience reminds me of when I bought my Saturn SL2 in 2001. When the salesperson made the mistake of asking “are you excited to get a new car?” that poor person got a rather withering look. Hey, the Saturn gave me 16 good years of reliable service and I’ll never be sorry about making a solid, adult life decision at the time – but it was a transportation appliance. Thank heaven I can now drive fun things.
This was good writing and on the mark. +1
That reminds me of the CVT Nissan Versa I rented some years back. By most modern standards it was a depressing car. By the standards of the Pintos, Tercels, and other economy cars of my youth it was a minor upgrade.
Uhhhhhhh look at median income in this country. And look at student loan debt. Now look at cost of housing.
Imho you have to be either stupid or come from a rich family (aka real safety net) to buy a new car.
Succinct and to the point.
I’ve made more money than most as an engineer. Most of the coworkers in my age bracket, millennials, live paycheck to paycheck. Student loan debt, a modest $150k 1,000 sq ft house in a “good” neighborhood, a cheap $25k new car, and starting a family did the trick. These are people in the upper 20% of individual income. They’re basically living the modest “Leave it to Beaver” lower-middle-class lifestyle, which most Americans are completely and totally priced out of unless they take on loads of debt and juggle it around for the remainder of their lives.
A $60k SUV? A complete and utter non-starter for anyone of moderately well-off means who wants to be responsible with their money. I don’t get why these vehicles are selling so well. I expect hordes of repos in the coming years.
I live in the ghetto and drive a custom electric vehicle that costs next to nothing to run. No debt. No kids to support. This is about the only realistic path I have of building wealth, barring the black market. Lots of 2-income families around here living paycheck to paycheck and/or getting government assistance with nothing to show for it, nevermind the hordes of working homeless people…
Where do you live where a modest house in a “good” neighborhood can be found for 150k??? I’m in RI and I don’t think one can even get an empty lot for that these days. I’m a young genX, when I was younger I thought I didn’t want to own a home. By the time I changed my mind and got all my ducks in a row, 2020 happened and I’m completely priced out of my area, my “area” being pretty much the whole New England region.
St. Louis, MO.
You can find homes in that price range in areas that aren’t risky to live in. They are scarce, but they are there. You’d be looking at a $1,200/mo mortgage payment.
The hood I live in, where gunshots are heard multiple times a week and where I’ve seen police chases in progress, and had to deal with packs of wild dogs roaming around, as well as random junkies wandering around strung out on drugs, you can find a “fixer-upper” for around $50k. This is not a place you’d want to raise kids in though. And all the repairs/permits you’d need before the city will let you move in would make it go to $150k(or more) real quick. So most of these properties are left to rot.
My standards aren’t very high. If I didn’t have my current place for cheap, and didn’t need to keep my prized electric Triumph GT6 conversion stored in a safe place, I’d camp out in bandos, making 6 figures. No fucks given. I am not intent on working until I drop dead.
Thanks for the info! That GT6 conversion sounds really cool, btw.
Yeah I don’t want anything fancy, just a 2 or 3 bed ranch with a 1 stall garage would be perfect. 1K sq ft is PLENTY of space for me, it’d just be me, my SO, and the dog. Whole neighborhoods of those exact homes were built in my area in the 60’s and 70’s and were solidly blue collar, now they’re all 400K plus.
When I get the free time, I want to upgrade the GT6 with a Tesla Model 3 motor and inverter, with a transmission delete.
It currently runs a 208V pack of CALB CA100FI batteries, a Prestolite MTC4001 series-wound DC motor, and a Soliton 1 controller, retaining the transmission. It makes about 120 horsepower and roughly the same torque, and can peel out in any gear at a stop. It weighs less as an EV than it did with the inline-6 ICE.
A Tesla swap, transmission delete, and a higher-voltage battery pack would turn it into something that could accelerate like a supercar, and it would lose even more weight.
Hopefully you don’t push it too far. I enjoy your contributions to the conversation here. I’d hate to start wondering “what happened to Toecutter?”. You seem sensible, but I worry you will accidentally make a flying car without intending to.
Pre-pandemic that’s what houses went for in my neighborhood in a suburb in Western NY. Good elementary school anchoring the neighborhood, it’s safe to walk at night and shopping is 6-10 minutes away (by car unfortunately). Now those houses are selling for $80-100k more. Some have literally doubled in value since March 2020. Real estate was heating up when I bought here but the pandemic turned a hot market into an inferno that’s cooled only slightly.
I’ve been waiting for a small electric car to commute with. Till then I will continue to drive my $9999.00 2019 Nissan Micra even if gas costs $10 a gallon. I just don’t care about an SUV commuter and if I’m buying anything over 60k its not going to be electric…I want that car to last.
1g Honda Insight. 5spd. Hybrid. 60-70mpg easily. Think “indestructable all aluminum honda CRX that will outlive you” and you’d be on the right track. Can get decent ones for under 5k. Leaves you 15k for stereo upgrades, gasoline, and maintenance. Car will lose no value, will likely appreciate a LOT in the next gas crunch.
When the engine and/or battery finally goes, they also make great EV conversions. Or you could K-swap it and have a 40+ mpg hoonabout.
“Are EVs Losing Steam Or Are They Still Just Too Damn Expensive?”
Yes.
I’m in the market for a family car to replace my wife’s Mk7 Golf. Something a little bigger for a second kid on the way. I’ve been contemplating dipping my toe into the EV market just because our use-case makes perfect sense for one. We have a second car, I own my house, have a garage, and the commute is pretty short. The problem is, despite some absolutely tempting deals on the 2019 Audi E-Tron (sub $37k), I don’t have 220v to my garage. So not only do I have to factor in the cost of the EV, I have some unknown cost to run 220v from my panel to my detached garage, plus equipment. I’m figuring at least $1500 to $2k on top of the EV purchase price. The other issue is time to install. I kind of need to install before getting the EV, but that means I need to commit to the idea of investing my cash up-front before buying the car. $1500 will more than cover the cost of gas for one car for a year. And let’s not forget getting a permit for the work, and getting an electrician to do the job. In Denver this could take weeks.
Building codes in certain cities are catching up to this issue, but it will be probably a decade or two before a lot of people have easy access to in-home charging infrastructure by default. In a lot of jurisdictions in CO, it’s required to rough in 220v in the garage or at least provide a conduit to the panel for easy install. The problem is this just applies to new houses.
Sigh… probably will just end up with a GD crossover…
A plus of having the 220V in the garage would be you can run a nice welder, if you had any interest in taking that up.
Otherwise, I’d just buy a hybrid. My GF gets 40mpg in her 2021 non-hybrid Elantra, the hybrid is rated at 55mpg. Or if you need a SUV, the hybrid RAV4 is about 40mpg.
If it’s a short commute and you don’t drive much, the fuel expense will be minimal. I’m of the opinion that right now, hybrid is the way to go. The next gen of EV’s may be more viable, especially with the 2035 ban on new ICE vehicles getting closer.
You might check with your power provider to see if they have incentives for installing level 2 ev chargers, mine doesn’t but some do.
They do, but you get locked into a monthly service contract which is not something I’m willing to entertain with a utility (Xcel) since they want to be able to control charging on the backend. They already have us on time of use metering which they argue is to be able to manage demand, but the reality is that they just want to make more money.
I live in Denver and just went through a very similar situation so hopefully I can help. Just had a kid and replaced my aging Mazda 3 with a safer Model Y (I thought I would hate loosing the 6spd plus small car fun for a crossover but honestly the Y has super sharp steering and the extra power is a ton of fun). Had my charger/wiring installed a couple weeks ago. The City of Denver has rebates of $1000 for the EV charger installation plus a $2000 rebate for electrical service upgrade which you can use towards the sub-panel you will need in the detached garage. You need to use an electrician on their approved list but those rebates are applied by the electrician up front on the cost so you don’t even need to wait for them. Xcel will also kick in an after-the-fact $500 rebate towards wiring plus a $50/year bill credit if you sign up for the Optimize Your Charge program (where you agree to schedule your charging for overnight/morning, if you read the fine print you really just need to do <25% of charging in the time window; it’s not demand-response based or the same as their monthly service contract program). I had a sorta complicated situation and had to have a new 220v wire fished from the panel, across my basement ceiling and run overhead to my detached garage (overhead wire is way cheaper than doing an underground conduit install) and ended up paying $1450 before the $500 Xcel rebate. I used Dutch Creek Electric for my install (highly recommend them) and was able to schedule the install for the following week. They pulled the city permit for the job with no delay. All the electrician estimates I got were free so you could definitely get one and know what the wiring work would cost before going in.
We had affordable EVs before – Leaf, Bolt, FIAT 500e, the work just wasn’t ready. We we need is a multiple prong approach starting with infrastructure that doesn’t rely solely on setting my my house as a charger and a low cost commuter like the ones above, Corolla , Kia, Hyundai.
This along with a pickup/well known style EV will be the ticket to an EV future.
The demographic to whom EVs appeal are the same demographic that are priced out of $60k crossovers and SUVs. In fact, this demographic is also priced out of a $20k Toyota Corolla. EVs have appeal to those looking to save on operating costs, but most of those people are living paycheck to paycheck, don’t even have $500 in savings, and can’t afford a new car of any kind.
If an EV is going to have mass appeal on its actual merits rather than marketing hype, it needs to be priced such that the monthly payment will be more than offset in gasoline/maintenance savings, so that a $5,000 used ICE car looks less attractive. It will also need 200 miles range to avoid range anxiety. This leaves very few possibilities. Perhaps one of these possibilities is a well-built streamliner sedan for under $20k with a drag coefficient of around 0.15 and mass of under 3,000 lbs, that uses its efficiency to get good range on a small, inexpensive battery of under 30 kWh, making use of a more robust LiFePO4 chemistry that is less prone to failure or fires. But the demographic to which this will have appeal is going to be narrowed to the subset that drives enough miles every month for there to be an actual savings while having to make that monthly payment versus using their $5k used ICE. To broaden its appeal, it would be stupidly cheap to give it Dodge Hellcat acceleration in a RWD package, which would give the buyer lots of value for their money. The auto industry isn’t interested in that, because the margins will be narrow thin, and they’ll be giving up planned obsolescence in the process, plus the sales of this vehicle would cannibalize the sales of more expensive vehicles. But if some company ever gets serious about wanting EVs to take off, this is one way to do it.
You’d be surprised what people will do to “save money at the pump” once they take notice of it. I sold cars during a period of “high gas prices” years ago.
Plenty of people who were scraping together $500 for a down payment and didn’t have perfect credit were coming in to buy a new car because they had a gas guzzling Tahoe or something.
So to avoid paying $100 at the gas pump, they’d take a bath on their trade in (no one wants those gas guzzlers right?) and then sign up for 60 months of payments with interest to get a car rated 20/25 instead of 14/20.
Last year when fuel prices hit 5/gal in my area, I contemplated on trading my paid off ’13 4Runner that was worth about 20k for a Rav4 hybrid.
I ran the math on it, and even with my fuel cost cut in half, the difference in price between the two would take nearly TEN years to recover in fuel savings.
Besides that, I actually LIKE my 4Runner, nothing about the idea of owning a RAV4 excited me.
Needless to say, I’m still driving the 4R.
And funny enough, I’m thinking of selling my 4R that’s STILL worth 20k-ish, and buying a 5k-ish GMT800 Tahoe. Not at all to save gas, but to be able to throw the 15k into the bank and in my home downpayment fund and still have a spacious and practical 4WD SUV.
Well, duh, with just about anything where are you have a big sale that gets people sitting on the fence to buy something, and then the big sale ends. All of the fence sitters have purchased an EV. Demand is back to normal minus the people who rushed to buy at a $7,500 discount.
People can’t afford new cars anymore, EV or otherwise.
We need more cars that are less expensive. The Chinese can come in and sweep the sub-20k market and can probably sell a car under 10k here too
Not that meets crash tests. People point to cheap cars in China and India and throw a fit that cars here are so much more, but those countries do not have crash test standards and are largely tin cans with wheels. By the time you add all the heavy crash structure I don’t see anything under $18k or so ever coming to the US market again. Regardless of country of origin.
recent Chinese cars are much better, and now, their standards are very close to international UNECE standards, and China even accepts those standards too.
So passing crash tests is not a problem anymore 🙂
And also, China can undercut everybody, too 😛
Yeah, slave labor plus government subsidies make it a breeze to offer low prices to your customer base.
A Chinese car would make any british car look like a monument of reliability.
I’d just buy an old rusty Fiat, it’d be a better drive, same reliability, same level of factory support and 10x cheaper.
The Chinese shit is a knockoff of something else, so if they copy the good shit, they’ll be ok 😛
Fun fact: Harbor Freight’s (Lifan-made) Predator 212, a copy of Honda’s GXV200, is so accurate that genuine Honda parts fit on the Chinese copy.
And anyway, nobody is expecting a brand new Toyota for 10k
And yet, we are on pace for over 16 million sales this year, basically back to the 2010s average.
It’s kind of a chicken and egg situation when it comes to cheap EVs for the masses. Do we open the market to low-cost Chinese EVs and will the public flock to them? One problem I see with this idea is that the people most likely to want cheap EVs are also the least likely to have the option for a home charging solution, which is a huge selling point for early adopters given the scattered and often substandard nature of public charging sites, commercial or otherwise. Would strong cheap EV sales spur rapid investment and growth of the charging network or do we need to put the charging availability issue ahead of mass EV sales to reassure new EV buyers? Do chargers need to be as ubiquitous as gas stations? I think, for most people, the answer is yes, especially if you want sell to people off the beaten track. I don’t see large-scale EV adoption happening without both much lower entry prices AND a reliable and easily available charging network.
Manufacturers are making $60k electric crossovers because people buy $60k crossovers. People that buy $60k cars have different lifestyles than people that buy Toyota Corollas.
Some apartments are building or installing electric chargers, but a couple stations doesn’t cut it, and these tend to be the pseudo-“luxury living” so again, people that can afford to buy new cars, and/or are more isolated from 15+ percent rent increases every year. Or if that’s what most of the housing is, because every “renovated” apartment does the same shtick, they’re still used or entry Corolla money.
I was at my local Hyundai dealership for my usual every 6 month oil change and tire rotation last weekend and I was shocked by how many EVs were on the lot. There were Ioniq 5s and 6s as far as the eye could see. The only other stuff they had were a few larger ICE SUVs (Santa Fes, Palisades) that I assume are marked up. When I saw the headlines about sales on EVs slowing down significantly I browsed local listings in my area (I live in DC so what’s within 100 miles of me is usually a pretty good snapshot of overall market trends) and sure enough there are dozens or more of pretty much every EV you can think of on lots right now.
Whatever trim, color, battery configuration, et cetera that you can think of was out there. I agree with the relatively simple “they’re too damn expensive” takes for the most part. Dealers are still not discounting them heavily for some reason. Most of the Hyundai and Kia stuff has a couple grand chopped off right now, but Teslas, Mach Es, etc. are still pricey. I think that more people would consider EVs if they could afford them, but when the average price is right around the median household income in the US it’s just way more than people can afford to spend.
I also think that the lack of infrastructure is still scaring people off…and while the average consumer is pretty financially illiterate it’s hard to see first gen EVs as being a good value. You should not, under any circumstances, buy one. They’re massive smartphones that will be outdated in 2-3 years, and the values reflect that. The things are depreciating at a massive rate. So not only is buying one a bad investment, but when interest rates for most people are at 5-10% it’s an even worse idea. Unless you have a big down payment (we’re talking like 20% or more) you will be underwater in a matter of days.
If you want one, lease it. Unfortunately governments and the manufacturers put the cart before the horse with EVs. They’re not ready for prime time yet…and that’s fine. The technology is young and it’ll get much better. I’d love to consider an EV in the future. But they aren’t the magic bullet solution for now that they’re made out to be, and the hype is already dying down.
PHEVs are the best solution at the moment, and acting like them and traditional hybrids are a half measure is naive. They work right now, they reduce emissions and fossil fuel consumption, and they don’t cost $60,000+.
I regularly road trip my hybrid – my job requires a lot of travel and for reasons I have minimized flying. I can average 36-38 mpg on the interstate at 75-80 mph and then get 40+ locally in my hybrid Camry with some care. This isn’t even a full PHEV but the older tech.
Teslas’ charging infrastructure is the only one worth a damn in most of the country. I see Superchargers regularly, even in the semirural south. Any tourist destination/major interstate has an array of them somewhere.
I’d argue the DC Metro area is more favorable to EVs than most places in the country outside of probably Southern California. So if they are stacking up here, the industry has a problem.
High incomes, EVs still get HOV exemptions for the Dulles Toll Road and I think in Maryland (HOV exemption helped drive hybrid sales a decade ago…people love avoiding traffic), tech workers that are probably more likely to buy an EV overall because it is cutting edge.
Teslas are the new asshole BMW driver around here. They are every where. Both of my neighbors have Teslas. The remaining BMW drivers are in M3s though, so lookout (like on the Fairfax County Parkway).
“Look: the world just does not need another $60,000 electric crossover. It needs, like, more electric Toyota Corollas. And would people actually buy it?”
This. It’s rote to the point of absurd comedy. Regardless, I’d be happy to buy an entry level EV if someone had the joules to make one.
An electric Corolla? Remember Coda?
Pepperidge Farms remembers.
I don’t think you need to be a “hard core EV-naysayer” to recognize real limitations that go well beyond high prices.
Ranges are too short, especially in hot or cold weather, and recharge times are too long, if you can even find a working charger.
At some point, the subset of buyers who can be satisfied with 200 something miles of real world range will be exhausted and EV growth will plateau until they figure out a better way.
There are plenty of people out there buying $60,000 trucks and SUVs. They’re just powered by gas, because that still works better for the vast majority.
An EV Corolla isn’t the answer, because the ICE Corolla isn’t what people are buying either. The answer is selling an EV without compromise; the first one that can do that will have my attention.
“An EV Corolla isn’t the answer, because the ICE Corolla isn’t what people are buying either.”
Seriously? I usually agree with your takes on things, but this is kind of absurd. The ICE Corolla and the similar ICE Camry are absolutely what people are buying!
The Toyota Corolla was the 4th best selling car in the US last quarter (55k sold in Q2). It was outsold by the Honda Accord (57k), Tesla Model 3 (59k), but all were dwarfed by the Toyota Camry (84k sold).
The Camry is the 8th best selling vehicle of ANY type last quarter (behind 3 pickup trucks and 4 SUVs).
Looking at the Camry and Corolla combined (because let’s be honest, what’s the difference anyway?) there were 139k sold last quarter; they would be in a very close 3rd place for ALL vehicles, just behind the 2nd place Silverado (141k sold).
So, an EV Camry (MSRP $24k+) or EV Corolla (MSRP $21k+), at similar price points (!!), would absolutely be something that people are buying!!!
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2023-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2023-us-passenger-car-sales-figures-by-model/
That could have been phrased better, but the point is that people aren’t buying cars like the Corolla anymore, not anything to do with the specific nameplate.
Trucks and CUVs are basically all the sales growth now; compact cars are something like 8% of the market. The Corolla itself sells 2/3 of the units it did 20 years ago.
Cheap EVs have been offered and have generally sold poorly, therefore they are no longer offered. I don’t think it’s crazy to say that an EV Corolla is not what the market demands in 2023.
What the market needs and what it demands are different things.
Could not possibly disagree more.
What possible evidence is there that people would flock to a cheap EV (that was not sold at a loss like the Bolt was)???
Compact cars aren’t selling well.
Low-range EVs aren’t selling well.
What you and others seem to be arguing for is either a low range compliance car that only a few weirdos would buy, or for a manufacturer to take a massive loss by selling a desirable EV for Corolla money. There’s no magic bullet.
The Model 3 is probably our electric Corolla at this point (RIP, Bolt). EVs probably won’t come down in price, but they might stagnate a little and let buying power catch up. What’s going to be the likely case is that used EVs will begin to occupy a lot of what would have been the lower end of the new market and a lot of very long loan terms.
Exactly right. I’d love to get into an EV to replace an aging SUV, but:
Last time I checked, my typical 11 hour drive to the inlaws would take around 14 hours when you factor in charging times, and that’s if the chargers are working/available. I’m not playing that game.
Are you a 2 vehicle family, where one ICE can work for the long trips, and an EV can work for most/all around town and work duties? This is the situation I’m in, and found a way to make it work, but for most people it absolutely doesn’t make sense when a secondary EV car costs $50k+
I’ve got 2 Miatas, an old Triumph, and an SUV for two people. The Miatas are daily drivers, the Triumph is the project/”racecar” (so it doesn’t count), and the SUV handles long trips, Home Depot runs, dog hauling duties, and winter days when the salt situation is ugly. Needless to say, the SUV doesn’t get driven much, so it’s hard to justify replacing it at all, let alone spending upwards of $50k to replace it. I really ought to just fix what needs fixing and keep it, but I kind of hate it. But whatever replaces it needs handle what I throw at it.
Last year I ordered a Mach-e Select, which finally arrived at the dealer in April. I had gotten the opportunity to test drive a different cancelled order Mach-e in December, and decided then to cancel my order as I did not like the Mach-e at all, then my order arrived in April. In June my wife totaled her V-50, and I was in the market for a car. The Mach-e I ordered was still on the lot, but I went and bought a 2019 e-Golf, which is absolutely FANTASTIC, and to this day the Mach-e I ordered is still on the dealer lot, with about 6 other Mach-e’s people don’t seem to want.
What I noticed is when Tesla changed prices everything on the market got weird, and used EV’s finally came down to the rebate level below $25k, so after the insurance payout, and $4k tax credit I only put out about $10k for the used e-Golf.
How Mach-e-avellian!
I work about a half mile from the dealer, so every now and then I drive by and check if it’s still there, and not only is my order there, but they seem to be multiplying like rabbits. the Mach-e is so bad i’ve taken to calling it a Mach-er-e, as it has no business wearing a Mustang badge
They sold much better in mid 2022, then seem to have fallen off this year. I imagine that price reductions in other brands have been part of that, but what specifically didn’t you like?
I haven’t been in one, and I’m curious what makes them so bad in your opinion?
First off the brakes are terrible, the seats leave you feeling like you will slide off in every turn, and the center of gravity feels too high partially due to the seat construction and placement. Also the Mach-er-e is built the mexico factory they used to make the Fiesta in. I had a 2016 Fiesta ST which was less than half the price of the Mach-er-e, and the interior and build quality was exactly the same as a $55k Mach-er-e.
Toyota is right. We should have started with incentivizing hybrids first. Then plug-ins, then full EVs. It would have allowed battery tech/supply chains and charging infrastructure to ramp up in a sensible way. Would have made a stronger contribution to the environment too. 20% of people in hybrids is way better for the environment than 1% of people in EVs.
Yup, this is starting to look like the right take. If I had a Prius Prime, I could do my commute on juice and my road trips on dinosaurs. Right now, that’s a better fit because of charging infrastructure and the state of EV range. As both of these improve over the next few decades, full-EV will become more attractive. Lower cost is also a big issue, but that will come down as well. We’re just…not…there…yet.
Wholeheartedly agree: current daily is an older hybrid and I wish it were a full PHEV as that would accommodate most of my regular errands and such with NO gas use. I would consider a full EV for a future purchase for my wife’s car. Cost and charging away from home is the problem.
So much this. I would buy a new prius prime if I could find one for MSRP, but I have very little interest in lugging around a super heavy battery that I don’t need 90% of the time, and the ability for the gas to take me further is essential for road trips. I tried talking my wife into a new Sienna as well just because of the mpg, but I can’t find one of those for under $60k and that’s never going to happen. I will stick with my old POS Sienna with the front bumper falling off that has been paid off for several years thank you very much.
Ask yourself why the EV zealots don’t want hybrids.
Absolutely this. EVs with their huge batteries as their sole method of power is just wasteful.
I went PHEV about a month ago and I’m now convinced its the best option for the time being. I can do my daily commute on battery and I still have a gas motor for when I need real range. Plus some stupid good acceleration when I let both work together in Sport mode. Over 1,000 miles I’m at 29MPG in a Grand Cherokee, and when you consider the first 600 miles of that were all gas for the car being delivered to me, the average only going to get better.
Owning a PHEV is a lot like owning both an ICE car for road trips and an EV for around town, except you get both in one car. It really is the best of both worlds.
It’s funny that there is a contingent of naysayers who think hybrids are double-bad instead of an elegant compromise. I guess they are waiting for the mythical water powered engine.
“I guess they are waiting for the mythical water powered engine”.
That’s not mythical, that’s any EV, with electricity from the local dam.
ha ha
My next car will probably be a PHEV because they make perfect sense for me. However, many people do not have the infrastructure or inclination to charge them at home so they end up being expensive heavy hybrids.
You know how GM’s gonna keep cranking out Escalades/Tahoes/Yukons/Silverados like, forever? I sure wish all of those were hybrids…
Right now the EV tax credits are still at tax time. January 1 2024 they switch to point of sale. For anyone doing math, that’s $3750 to $7500 less to finance. At 5% over 60 months that means $70 or $140 a month less and saves $490-990 in interest over the life of the loan.
And you need to owe at least as much in taxes as the credit on the vehicle to get the full advantage of said credit, since there is no refund of the difference or the ability to carry over any unused credit.
Take the tax credits away and then you’ll see the true EV market.
If the freakin’ government has to incentivize a consumer product, it’s obviously not a viable product for regular people.
The tax credits only serve to make the MSRP that much more expensive. The market is distorted such that the manufacturer can raise the price in line with the tax credit. The entire idea of “incentivizing” them with tax credits is nothing less than folly.
Affordable EVs are very much possible, 20 years ago. But today, the auto industry generally isn’t interested in affordable cars of any kind, because the margins are thinner. They want everyone in debt, because the car companies make more money off of financing the cars than they do selling cars.
Sure the manufacturers can raise the MSRP, but every buyer has a price range they are targeting, and either the manufacturer’s stated price is within the buyer’s range or not. Obviously many buyers view the tax credit as a major incentive to move forward with a purchase as the credit ultimately reduces the cost of the vehicle. EV buyers usually state in their purchasing stories what the tax credit was that they received, so it’s clearly an incentive for the buyer. And when government changes or proposes a policy to reduce the tax credit, the news stories always state that it is a disincentive for EV purchasing.
The government incentivizes all sorts of things.
TLDR: Obviously not everyone shares the same vision, and we can debate the degree of incentives, exactly what tech is being incentivized, the particular solutions, etc. But there is nothing wrong with incentives in and of themselves.
Our government gives WAY too many benefits to oil and gas. Also take away ALL oil and gas company benefits, tax discounts, use of public land, etc. [$10-50 Billion PER YEAR in explicit benefits. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-budget-targets-us-fossil-fuel-subsidies-2023-03-09/%5D
Gasoline is obviously not a viable product for regular people.
The US government has also incentivized home ownership, having children, domestic farming, and thousands of other things.
Incentives can be good; since a pure free market is only concerned with profits for the next quarter.
Generally, humans are concerned with a slightly longer time scale. Although the US, as countries go, is pretty short-sighted, our government is expected to have a longer term vision, and to implement policies, usually through financial incentives (rebates, grants, direct funding) and costs (taxes, fees, penalties) to achieve that vision. It is essentially a thumb on the scale of the purely free free-market.
Oil and Gas pollute grossly and cleaner technologies are available, but a lot of investment is needed in order to drive the change and to develop the cleaner technologies to where they are profitable on a level with oil/gas. Government incentives can drive things that direction faster… hopefully before we all die in floods and heatwaves.
Obviously not everyone shares the same vision, and we can debate the degree of incentives, exactly what tech is being incentivized, the particular solutions, etc. But most people have some government incentives that they agree with. There is nothing wrong with incentives in and of themselves.
Well said, thanks.
The people in government never have enough information at hand to incentivize the right things, only the market does. This is why the government should not be handing out any incentives of any kind. Top down central planning doesn’t work, as proven by countless governments over the last hundred years or so.
“The market” isn’t a conscious entity and doesn’t know anything. It’s made up of small individual selfish decisions that are made ONLY for profit. As you say, that can make things very efficient, and is good.
You are correct that total top-down planning (a command economy) doesn’t work.
You know what else doesn’t work? Unregulated might-makes-right free-for-all pure capitalism. See: Somalia [Just be sure to pay your local warlord his cut, and you should be fine… until you’re not.]
Unfortunately this is one of those things in the real world where simple black and white statements (“no government incentives”) are too simplistic, because the world is complicated, and despite what news talking-heads would like to say, the world is actually grey. There is a significant difference between a “thumb on the scale” and a centralized command economy.
ALL functional economies exist on a spectrum somewhere between (1) No government intervention – complete selfish capitalism, and (2) Total command economy. The US is no different and has NEVER been complete hands-off capitalism.
Neither extreme works. Once we recognize that, then we’re just debating the what, when, and how much government management there should be.
From my personal perspective, I don’t trust pure selfish profit-seekers to lead society to a place that anyone except the ultra-rich can live in. Why would they? Without government incentives/penalties, they have no motive to make the world livable for you or me. (i.e. Musk does NOT care about you.)
Replying to myself here…
Another way to think about this is in terms of Power.
A Command Economy cedes all economic power to the government, and usually to a single central figure.
Pure Capitalism cedes all economic power to those with the most money.
So, unless you happen to be the DICTATOR, or are the RICHEST, neither extreme is good for you. You wouldn’t have power over the decisions that effect your life, and you would have no recourse.
I personally believe that power needs to be managed, and that I only give it up reluctantly. I would like some say (voting and accountability) over those that make decisions that effect my life.
Government incentives and penalties are the ways in which “we the people”, through our elected representatives, assert power over the rich. And we assert power over the government through voting.
Saying “No government incentives” (or the flipside: no penalties) cedes all economic power to those with more money than you.
I don’t like that, but you do you.
Just one slight clarification: you don’t need to owe it at tax time. This has been a constant source of confusion. You need to have enough overall tax liability, but if you’ve been paying in all year, you can still get the overpayment refunded. You just can’t reduce your tax liability below zero with it.
Example: Your tax liability is $7500, and you pay in $7500 over the course of the year. The tax credit would mean you get $7500 back (overpayment rebate) instead of just breaking even.
You may already know this, but enough people have been confused, I think it’s worth repeating.
Excellent point. People turn down promotions because it bumps them into the next marginal tax bracket (which would be some percent of whatever portion of income is in that bracket so they’d still be money ahead). Ask a person on the street if income tax brackets are marginal and get blank stares. Point being that financial literacy is not too common.
Yeah, I had coworkers who were absolutely certain that their take-home would be lower because of tax brackets, and it is difficult to convince them to listen long enough to teach them. I also hear people talking about capital gains tax as though it is some oppressive amount that makes investment not worth it, when it is set up to be less than your income tax, regardless of tax bracket.
We make these systems overly complex and give people almost no education on them, and the people who benefit (such as tax preparation services that target people with the simplest returns or the people who take advantage of the tax system’s complexities) laugh all the way to the bank.
My opinion is that tax brackets would be much less confusing to people if they were described as:
Fixed $X + Y% of income from $A to $B
But of course you’re right about who benefits from keeping things complex.
dude that’s algebra, you lost 90% of Americans right out of the gate
Your average 100 IQ person would be comparable to the fictional character Hank Hill. 50% of the population will be less intelligent than that. Algebra definitely would scare most of the lower 90% away!
A Kia dealer near me is offering $5k off an EV6, plus $7500 off on a lease. I like the car, but I don’t know about getting an EV right now as it looks like we’re going to NACS soon.
The sooner everyone is on some unified standard, the better.
A relatively cheap adpadter will allow a CCS car to charge with a NACS plug. Ford for example has already stated that they will be supplying said adapter until they make the switch and are supposed to be sending them out to existing owners too. So even if all the CCS plugs go away overnight as long as you have your adapter you are good to go, plus Tesla is now installing chargers with the “magic dock” to accommodate CCS vehicles w/o having to bring your own adapter.
Sure, but if I can wait a year or so and get something with a NACS plug, I don’t need an adapter (well, I might still need one for the CCS chargers still hanging around, but they’ll end up phased out over time). I have to assume that I’m not alone in a willingness to wait.
As to the “magic dock,” I suspect that the move to NACS as the standard is likely to slow/stop that rollout. Also, I thought non-“magic dock” superchargers wouldn’t charge via an adapter–is that no longer the case?
I cannot comprehend how these companies expect the average American that makes ~40k after taxes to commit all of their income on a prototype car that could burn their house to the ground. Who has the money to buy this stuff?
It’s not the taxes, it’s the rent-seeking utilities. My parents paid just a few monthly utility bills- gas, electric, and phone. Now we have to add in home internet, mobile phones (for every family member), cable/satellite/streaming subscriptions, and a monthly fee just to get verified by a little blue bird.
I was with you till you mentioned twitter verification.
I was more referring to the avg American take home income. May the top 1% rule us all.
So don’t have those things and party like it’s 1969.
Didn’t Nissan already make an electric Corolla?
No, that would be good car. They made an electric Versa.
Based on my frequent rental car usage, the Versa is just a Corolla with better interior, better gas mileage, for less money.
As far as hateful cars go, there’s no reason to overpay for them.
The Chevy Bolt EV was the “Toyota Corolla” of EV but GM killed it and is replacing it with a crossover.
Yep. I was actually finally ready to go for an EV for me, and keep my wife in the gas car, then I tried ro buy a bolt. And they were on the stop sale from the fires a couple years back and I haven’t been able to find one since.
I bought my 2019 Bolt in October 2021 from Carvana immediately after the stop sell was lifted . 15K miles and GM replaced the traction battery within a month. It does everything I need including a 700 mile vacation trip a couple of weeks ago.
Nice. Yeah I was preparing for a move by the time it was lifted, and didn’t want to try to figure out the logistics of moving 1800 miles with it. And I needed a car before it was lifted, so I went weird and imported a French hatchback instead.
If GM had any sense (spoiler, they don’t), they’d put the Volt powertrain into a crossover body and keep selling the Bolt alongside it.
But then they’d have to actually properly market the thing, and rely on their dealerships to educate consumers on what a PHEV is.
The Volt hit the market in 2011, with specs equal to or better than any of the Primes Toyota has put out since, but of course GM killed it in 2019. And yet you can’t buy a Prime for sticker price.
I agree that (non Tesla) electric car demand is going down due to cost but there are other reasons as well.
A big one I see only getting bigger as time goes on is all the non NACS equipped US electric cars are going to lose charging support in the near future much like Leafs with their CHAdeMO ports. Why buy an electric car now that’ll lose charging support in the near future when in a few years you’ll be able to buy that same car for the same price without that issue and access to a better charging network?
Valid point, though I doubt the average consumer is aware of this issue.
I think that most consumers who are nervous about switching to an EV is likely at least aware that Ford and GM are going to NACS, which would probably get them thinking about it.
Some of us don’t care. I charge at home 99% of the time, and the 1% was first-year range anxiety for a few frigid days in the winter. If I really need to charge away from home, I assume by that time, there will be an adapter.
My EV is a commuter or local trip car for me; we also have an ICE vehicle if we need to take a long trip.