You’ve probably seen some foreboding headlines about the electric vehicle market getting super weird in the U.S., with inventories suddenly super-high after months of hype and excitement. What happened? It’s indeed more complicated than you think, but also… not.
That leads off this midweek, mid-July edition of The Autopian’s morning news roundup. I hope you’re staying cool out there. Also on our menu today: a look at new and used car prices evening out, rough news on the Ford quality front (again!) and how Porsche’s responding to the Apple CarPlay takeover. Let’s get started, we haven’t a moment to waste!
Are EVs Losing Steam Or Are They Still Just Too Damn Expensive?
This year was supposed to be the year that EVs went mainstream—the year more and more people broke up with gasoline amid sweet new tax breaks and unprecedented public investments into charging. Now, midway through the year, we’re seeing what Axios called a “growing mismatch between EV supply and demand” that’s leading to EVs spending twice as much time on dealer lots as gasoline cars. In other words, there are lots of electric cars on lots but not a lot of buyers.
I’ve read some takes this week that are balanced and thoughtful (like Axios‘ report) and some unhinged, doom-and-gloom takes often from hardcore EV naysayers that I won’t even link to. I’m pro-electrification, but I’m also a cold, hard pragmatist and it’s not my job to sell these things—merely to tell you what’s going on. So here’s my read on the situation:
- People are interested in EVs, and we’ll see more of the market move that way over time
- It’s pretty dependent on charging options, which still aren’t good enough and probably won’t be for a couple of years
- This situation is more than likely temporary, not permanent
- Losing the EV tax credits on everything but a few U.S.-made models is hurting, not helping, electric growth
- Rising interest rates really aren’t helping here either…
- …because these things are still too damn expensive for a lot of people.
That’s it! That’s my exclusive, hot-take analysis of this situation, the kind of expertise you’re only gonna find here, folks. (Make sure to subscribe if you don’t!)
Seriously, it ain’t hard. I dove into this at Heatmap earlier this week but the average EV price is still around $60,000 in America and that’s actually gone up this year. This, despite the huge glut of EVs coming to the market.
Here’s Reuters today diving into this a little deeper with some analysis I like. Among their data: General Motors had 50 days’ worth of Cadillac Lyriqs available by the end of June (the industry average is 52 days) but those are barely on the road yet; the Ford F-150 Lightning is at 86 days and the Mach-E is at 113 days; and the Volkswagen ID.4 is at 131 days. All of those cars qualify for EV tax credits, too.
Rising inventories and price-cutting could represent only a short-term pause in EV market growth. But they could be signals that boosting U.S. EV sales above the current 7% market share level will be more costly and difficult than expected, even with federal and state subsidies.
Automakers North America have billions of dollars in EV-related investments riding on how the next several quarters play out. If production of EVs continues to outpace demand, automakers will have to choose between slashing prices and profit margins, or slowing assembly lines.
And I’m not sure they’ll cut prices on these things much, because they’re already (often) so unprofitable to begin with. Automakers can make big claims about wanting to go “all-electric” in a decade or whatever, but that’s just talk until it meets the cold, hard reality of shareholder capitalism.
Take that sentence I emphasized in the paragraph above. Next several quarters? That’s a tough line for automakers to walk with their investors, considering the EV thing will be a long-term, possibly permanent investment. But in America, your company lives and dies by strings of quarterly results.
Now, why am I convinced this isn’t a permanent lack of interest in EVs? I’d point to Tesla for that one. I’m also by no means an Elon apologist but the company sold almost 500,000 EVs globally just in Q2, and according to estimates about 310,000 of those were just Model Ys and Model 3s sold in the U.S.
Why, you ask? Well, Tesla still has the best charging network (though it won’t be exclusive forever now) and… wait for it… they have the best deals on EVs. Range, too, but when you factor in all of those cars, these are still the best pound-for-pound electric deals you can get right now. They just are, and I say that as someone who’s getting tired of seeing the damn Model Y everywhere I go.
I think if Tesla demand was cratering amid all of its own price cuts, the alarm should really be sounded for the EV market. But you absolutely cannot blame people, right now, for not wanting a $60,000 electric crossover that lives and dies by ChargePoint and Electrify America.
More from Reuters on that:
“Price cuts do show that we’re in sort of an equilibrium of demand and supply and price so when sales aren’t there, they’re going to be dropping price,” said Mark Wakefield, co-head of consultancy AlixPartners’ automotive practice. “Tesla in particular has the room to do that.”
Wakefield said it is too soon to declare that U.S. EV demand has hit a plateau. “We see it as choppy growth, but continued growth,” he said.
But even if the automakers can’t throw discounts on EVs right now, you know dealers might. Here’s a (technically used because it’s a 2022 model but with only 2,500 miles) Hyundai Ioniq 5 I found that’s just $36,000. That’s… very tempting. Same case with this Mustang Mach-E. So if you want one of these things, you may be able to take advantage of some deals if you know where to look.
Update: After I published this story, I noticed our old pal Tom McParland spotted the same trend and wrote about it for Jalopnik (which doesn’t surprise me, nobody knows their stuff more than he does.) Check this out to learn more about some strong EV deals right now.
New Car Prices Are High But At Least Stabilizing
Yesterday, Matt wrote about the gradual decline in used car prices and why it’s kinda good news but also not anything mind-blowing. Basically, interest rates—which are always higher on used cars—make it so you may just get a better overall deal on something new right now.
Here’s more on this weird situation from the Detroit Free Press:
On the new car side, the average price Americans paid for a new vehicle in June was $48,808, up 1.6% from the year-ago period, Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive company, said Tuesday. That is the smallest year-over-year price gain since the start of the global pandemic, Kelley Blue Book noted.
And, compared with the start of the year, transaction prices are down 1.7%, or $865 from $49,388 in January. It is the largest January to June tumble in the past decade, according to Kelley Blue Book.
“The fact that average transaction prices are up a meager 1.6% year-over-year in June is notable,” said Michelle Krebs, executive analyst at Cox Automotive. “A year ago, the industry was looking at transaction prices that were consistently up 10% to 12% year-over-year. With no inventory in place, it was inflation gone wild.”
Stability is good. And more and more folks I talk to in the industry say the worst is probably over with regard to the chip shortage. Now we just have to wait for all the new car prices to go back down to their pre-pandemic levels! I’ll be on my front lawn if anyone needs me.
Porsche: If You Can’t Beat Apple, Join ‘Em
Yeah, not many people are confident that GM can do a better job with infotainment systems than freaking Apple. I get where the automakers are coming from in not wanting to cede their dashboards (and data) to tech companies and I hardly have the desire to defend a company like Apple, but consumers want what they want for a reason.
Porsche, on the other hand, is just leaning into it and making it so you don’t have to switch back to the “main” menu to operate certain controls—they now work through Apple CarPlay instead. Imagine that! From Car and Driver:
Apple CarPlay just got a little more useful for Porsche owners. Underscoring further just how much owners prefer third-party software like CarPlay over the native manufacturer systems, Porsche has updated its My Porsche app software, allowing for further support within Apple CarPlay. Users can now make changes to things that would otherwise only be controlled by the manufacturer software. That means things like cabin sound profiles, climate control, and ambient lighting in the cabin can now be changed directly from Apple CarPlay menus.
The new functions can also be added to new “wellness modes” like Relax, Warmup, and Refresh, all using CarPlay. Possibly the most exciting part of the update comes from the ability to use voice activation and Siri for things like changing climate control or radio settings.
Useful. And it’ll be fascinating to see how these different OEMs deal with the Apple CarPlay and Android Auto showdowns they’ll inevitably face.
Another Day, Another Ford Quality Issue
It wouldn’t be a day ending in y if we didn’t have another Ford quality issue to cover. This one deals with some recent Ford Escape crossovers with an apparent welding issue that could mean you inadvertently escape from your Escape. Via Automotive News:
NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation said it received 118 reports from U.S. vehicle owners alleging “a failure of the spot welds in the check arm bracket for the front doors” on 2020-21 Ford Escape vehicles, according to a federal document released Tuesday.
There have been 25 reports of minor injuries and one report of minor property damage related to the issue, the agency said.
Many of the owners reported hearing a “popping noise” when opening the front doors. NHTSA said continued use of the doors could result in a dislodged door check, potentially causing a failure to latch when closed, a failure to open or inadvertently opening while driving.
If you own one of these cars, you may want to get a dealer to check it out. Or learn to tuck and roll.
Your Turn
Look: the world just does not need another $60,000 electric crossover. It needs, like, more electric Toyota Corollas. But who will be the first to make that? Tesla? BYD? Toyota itself? And would people actually buy it?
Just saw my first Cadillac Lyric in the wild this morning (Mason, Ohio). It looked nice; a dark blue color. I was starting to wonder if these were just made up marketing hype!
I’m sure there’s also a sizable portion of people that don’t care for EV’s. And I don’t mean the hardcore “ICE till I die!” people like myself, I mean there are normies who have been putting gas in a car their whole life and don’t care to change that up. Especially older people who hate changes, they’ll just happily get a newer gas car and have fundamentally the same experience they’ve had for their whole life.
EV’s just don’t have any huge benefits that are tangible to the average person. A big part of the country doesn’t care about climate change, and gas is still quite inexpensive in the US, compared to the rest of the world. EV’s would have to be dirt cheap, have a huge range, and have a charging network that is equally as big as the gas station network. Basically it would have to be easier than owning an ICE car. Right now, owning an EV is still very much an early adopter move, and it comes with its inconveniences that a lot of people don’t want to deal with.
Thanks to The Autopian for pointing out Tom’s article on the other site. I still scroll through the other site, but they seem to like burying certain articles so no one can find them. See their latest video that I don’t watch 5 times while scrolling through “Latest”, but not Tom’s article or the day’s NPOND…two of the writers I look forward to there.
I view EVs at this point still as secondary “commuter” cars. So a EV “Corolla” would suit me just fine. The Bolt was doing that, now it is going away. The Leaf still does that, but not as well as the Bolt did.
Yes, people would absolutely buy an electric Corolla if it were priced about the same as a normal Corolla. Duh!
We’ve purchased 2 Bolt EVs this year. An EUV Premier with most of the options – final cost AFTER the $7500 credit will be ~ $27K. Liked the car so much we just picked up a lower-trim basic model (still with the safety nannies and heated wheel/seats) for much less. Final price (not including taxes and including another $7500 credit) ~ $23K.
These are brand new vehicles with all the safety kit and stuff like wireless carplay included.
GM also payed $1,400 to install a 220 v outlet in our garage on our first purchase (which also came with the level-2 charge cable). Our 2nd EV came with a $500 EV credit (useless to us, but we already have the 220 outlet).
My take:
That’s it. The EV is best suited for multi-car families with a home charging option who are willing to buy now even if better stuff is 2-years away. Granted that still a large market – but it’s a subset of the total US car market. I think EVs need to be judged that way too.
I think item 3 is mostly offset now by cost. I know Bolts fast charging circuits are limited compared to never EVs – since we never use fast level-3 charging AND the cars were dirt cheap, out-of-date-tech risk was much lower that bang-for-the-buck reward.
Oh, and FU GM for dumping CP/AA – can cross any EV without it off the list (that’s for next year’s “Why aren’t the Equinoxes selling?” article 🙂
Prices are still crazy, and like hell I’ll use a Tesla charging system.
Come on 80% of the market cant afford any new car let alone an EV. A govt subsidy of $7500 is nice but i need a 50% rebate and even then where do i charge? At home? Sure add another 10k for a charger and frankly i checked except for govt exclusive chargers the nearest are 3 hours away. I would tentively try hybrid but Nooooo Biden wants to payoff big 3 and union. How does that work? Either Big 3 cuts out the old school workers who dont do anything anyhow or big 3 have to keep useless high paid crap on payroll and cant compete against chinese slave labor. I dont understand this site they support the high cost union workers in the usa and the free slave labor in China and expect the Manufacturers to keep everyone employed at obscene rates and compete.
I want to see how this is done feasibly or a true economic breakdown. Every car site needs to employ a financial expert to tell crazy journalists life and economics dont work that way.
Hey folks, this is what happens when the kid who didn’t do the homework and yet insists speaking during the group project grows up and gets access to the internet.
EVs can charge on a dryer outlet. That doesn’t cost $10, calm down. I literally buried a line in my yard to run to a detached garage and put in a sub panel, all for $4k and that was way more than most people need.
The charging infrastructure will be there within a couple years
Last year, the local Ford dealership wanted $20K over sticker for a Lightning XLT. Now they have 5 used ones with a couple thousand miles at $5-10K below MSRP.
But there’s no tax credit so it’s still is a shit deal from a shitty dealer, so screw them.
Adding to your thought: They have five used ones already? Trouble in Paradise?
Yeah and the carfax on them is weird. They were purchased from a dealer then ended up in auction a couple months later.
The crop of new EVs from VW, Hyundai-Kia, Volvo-Polestar, Subaru-Toyota, and Nissan are all missing the pricing mark. You can see it in what is still sitting on dealer lots across the PNW (a very EV friendly region with plenty of high-enough income folks). The fact I can go on Tesla’s website and order exactly the trim I want, no BS, is a big deal. Lots of shoppers are rightly realizing that the higher trim ID.4 and Ioniq models just don’t pencil out.
At the end of the day lots of folks are extremely practical, if you were buying Camry Hybrids or RAV4 hybrids in the before times, because you cared about total $/mi. Well today you are probably ordering a base trim Model Y or 3. They get you the incentive and they are markedly cheaper to purchase and own (for all the Tesla QA issues they seem relatively free of the Ford/Subaru style major breakdowns Toyota buyers fear).
I also think most of this current excellent crop of cars missed the mark on efficiency and are now paying for it with more expensive battery packs. For a basic family car 55-60kwh should be more than enough capacity to get the 250-270mi of highway range. Instead the ID.4, the e-GMP cars, the CMA cars, and the MachE are all too fat, too inefficient, and too expensive.
No the hybrids are still better than repair shops in different states.
I can do all of those things right now with my right hand without looking. This does not sound like improvement. Maybe improvement in button/knob-less cars.
Yes, and I was struck by the bit you left out in your quote:
That Automotive News writer needs to get out more.
Alternatively, if that was the exciting part of the update, imagine how dry and painful the rest of it was.
We’re in the market for a new family car, and budget is around 50k max. There are zero 3-row EVs that fit that criteria, but plenty of ICE vans and SUVs. The only kinda-sorta option is the Pacifica PHEV, but the reliability ratings on that are just terrible. I can deal with that, but this is the SO’s car and she won’t tolerate it.
I’m actually very interested in an EV, but it’s just not in the cards this time around. Just goes to show that modern EVs are still in their infancy, unless you’re shopping for a small crossover your options are pretty limited.
I won’t buy an EV because I can’t afford one. My budget can handle payments on a $25,000 car, not a $60,000 car, plus charging setup. I have a house so I could install a charger but I also have a garage full of stuff. A plug in hybrid makes more sense to me since I often travel places with no EV chargers. But that’s still spending money I don’t have. I don’t commute so I often drive only 50 miles a week. Buying gas is cheaper than going electric or even hybrid.
Plug ins are a great option then. I also recommend a Chevy Bolt. They’re amazing
You can get a 2020 Chevy Bolt with an extended warranty 84/84 bumper to bumper for under $25,000 right now. 259 mile range, clean, with low miles. Buy one with 24,000 miles on it and you have 4 years and 60,000 miles of warranty and 8/100 from the date the battery was replaced. Plus a $4,000 used EV tax credit! Now it’s only $20,000 for a great little hot hatch that’s actually fun to drive.
One of the more significant points is that the tax credits are bunk. In many economically well off states, the cost of living is high and the incomes are adjusted to reflect that. But when you set an income limit on a federal level, you screw over all those people. There are so, so many people making $150k+ a year that can’t afford a $55k EV, but could possibly pull the trigger if the tax credits applied to them
Turns out there might be a finite amount of middle managers willing to pay 60k for a crossover with cool lights. Also a whole bunch of people who are in the target market for these discotheque crossovers are between 10k-20k poorer then they were last month. While paying 2k in rent for some shoebox 6 blocks off a bus line. With every cooperation invisible hands in the visible pockets of your average working stiff, unfortunately it’s easier to just not buy a new iconiq5 or whatever. If they want to sell more evs, maybe make them 1 bedroom/ 1 bath and edible in desperation.
Also GM will be the first when we show up outside the Ren Center with pitchforks and breaker bars demanding that Saint Chevy Bolt still lives.
Just wait for real fuel shortages to make themselves known. The Chinese will eat GM’s lunch.
We’ll probably be too busy doing civil war at the local Speedway to buy Chinese.
All the commuters in F150s will find a way to blame dumbocrats for $10/gallon gas, too!
The current crop of expensive EVs are very nice, but I think we won’t see mass adaption until someone comes in with a “better than a used ICE vehicle” for a “better than used ICE vehicle” price. Seems like the pool of new car buyers that can afford new car $$$ is shrinking every year. Affordability is even an issue for 2nd owner used vehicles now.
I’m banking on an Ultium platform Bolt for exactly that
Personally, I can’t get an EV since I can’t afford a house in this market. I would daily one but charging would be a nightmare.
Condo owner. Ditto. There is talk of putting a charger or two in each building’s parking lot, but things move glacially despite the Florida heat.
How far do you drive per day? A typical EV can charge on a regular wall outlet if you’re driving less than 50-75 miles per day
As of this moment on VW.com:
969 available vehicles for 2023 id.4 within a 200 miles radius
ID.4 Pro S (550)
ID.4 AWD Pro S (409)
ID.4 AWD Pro S Plus (10)
There are FOUR lower trims on the website that just do not exist in the wild. The Pro S stickers for $10k more than the Standard and $5k more than the Pro (same as Standard but larger battery)
This is the example I’m familiar with because I’ve thought a few times about trading my JSW in for the ID.4, I’d assume it’s not unique.
Regarding the Ford weld quality issues, they along with most manufacturers have weld process control issues. See https://weldreality.com/ for some interesting insight into why process control is important. The web site is not polished, but there are lots of examples of manufacturers who don’t know the basics about controlling the weld process.
Regarding EVs – for me it’s all about $$$.
I’m interested in 2 EVs. The Honda e and the VW Microbus. Too bad they don’t sell the Honda e here, and that the VW Microbus is made by VW.
I read about EVs here, and I remain curious about them. I think I am somewhat representative of the average person in that regard — not an EV evangelist who believes electric cars can do no wrong nor an EV hater. I would be open to an EV to replace my current car when the time comes (I am not currently car shopping, and there doesn’t seem to be much on the new market that appeals to me anyway.), but there are a lot of things that I just don’t understand about them and how they’d fit in my specific situation.
I have a standard 110V outlet in my garage, and I know that doesn’t do much to charge a car… but I also don’t drive very far (most days are <25 miles, and I’ve never driven more than 100 miles in a single day), so if I can squeeze out that much charge overnight, that might be all I need. If that’s the case, then I don’t care about public charging infrastructure, and I would enjoy never having to stop at a gas station to fuel up again. I don’t know much about home electricity, so I could probably hire an electrician to put in 220V there, but I don’t know what it takes to get DC or if that would even be practical in my situation (I live in a townhouse), and I’m not sure what that would cost.
I am easy on my cars, driving less than 4,000 miles per year and ensuring maintenance is done regularly. As such, my cars last a long time. I still fear battery degradation over a long period of time even though I’m told that EV batteries work differently than batteries in other electronics. What happens to EVs as they age? I’d be quite disappointed, for example, if I had David’s i3 with its toasted battery without California’s interesting replacement program — especially after having dropped a ton of money on the car to begin with.
And speaking of the price, that’s the elephant in the room. The $60k average is definitely eye-catching, but I also understand that it’s possible to skew numbers like that. A straight average (mean) could easily be affected by a few very expensive options. I wonder what the median EV price is — or even the median adjusted for units sold. I don’t want to spend $60k on a car — especially if that car comes with limitations, but I don’t mind spending a bit for quality.
I realize that my situation is unique, but that’s kind of the point. Everyone’s situation is unique, especially when we’re talking about an only car. Someone who uses an EV as a second car can accept some limitations or compromises because the other car can pick up the slack, but when it’s your only one, it’s got to be able to do it all all the time. The very early adopters jumped on EVs as second cars; then secondary early adopters picked up EVs as their only cars. EVs haven’t been on the market for too terribly long, so these early and sorta-early adopters don’t need to replace their cars yet. That leaves “everybody else”. People are comfortable with what they’re used to. Some might be interested in doing the research on how to fit an EV into their lives, but the path of least resistance is to just go with what you’re used to, and that’s ICE.
If you don’t drive a lot, a standard 110 outlet could definitely handle much of your charging (called level 1 charging). If you regularly drive more, you could have an electrician combine two 110 circuits into a 220 to do level 2 charging — which will definitely take care of any overnight charging needs. DC fast charging (level 3) isn’t really an option for setting up at home, though.
That’s interesting about the different chargers. I hear about people getting electric car chargers installed in their garages, and I always kind of assumed it was DC based on the high prices (though sometimes reimbursed or mitigated with rebates) of the installations. So are those people just getting DC lines installed in their garages?
Is there an issue with compatibility? Seeing manufacturers dump one standard in favor of another makes me worried about potential obsolescence. Or are car chargers like phone chargers where you can stick either a Lightning cable or a USB-C or even a Micro-USB into any outlet and be fine?
All batteries ultimately need DC current to charge. EVs (like phones and laptops) have internal circuitry that turns AC current (which is what home current delivers — whether 110 or 220) into DC current to charge the battery. That internal circuitry can’t handle higher power than 220 AC current, so to charge the battery faster, a DC power source is needed — and the car bypasses it’s conversion circuitry and sends that DC power straight to the battery. That is what’s called DC fast charging. Special equipment is used by commercial enterprises to create the much higher-powered DC current for that charging — which can’t be setup at home. The good news is, the slower charging is generally fast enough for people to fill up their EVs at night (especially the 220 level 2 option) — and it’s better for battery longevity not to use faster charging too frequently.
The two options for EV connectors are CCS and what is now called NACS (the Tesla connector). It looks like NACS will be winning out in this format war (which is probably good, since it’s better in most ways). Until the transition finishes, adapters are available to allow using both for cars with either port — kind of like with phones.
Sounds like us – we have been using the 110v since we got our car and so far it’s been fine. Winter might be a challenge once in a blue moon but that’s about it. In terms of the price, all of the cars were listed at $60k but that covered up huge differences in how much (and how fast) the dealers would come down from that.
FWIW the Chinese price war is probably having as large an effect on prices as anything else that’s going on.
You’d probably be fine on 110, especially if you don’t stack the 100 mile days back-to-back. Depending on the vehicle, you’re probably getting 30-50 miles in 8 hours on 110.
That would really be all I need… assuming those 30-50 miles in 8 hours don’t deteriorate over time.
It seems like car companies that make EVs focus on the big sexy numbers (Long range! Speedy DC charging!), and these simpler ones (like how much range you get overnight just by plugging into a standard outlet) get overlooked.
We have a pacifica hybrid and a bolt. The Pacifica came with a chargeset that plugs into a standard 110v outlet in our garage. It takes about 14 hours to charge from 0 and offers about 35 mile all-electric range
Now that GM paid to install a 220v outlet in our garage, we use the Bolt’s 220v capable chargeset for both. Pacifica is full after 2 hours on 220v
That’s enlightening. Thanks for sharing your experience. I’d probably like a plug-in hybrid like your Pacifica, usually using the electric-only mode primarily but then having the ICE backup for edge cases.
I have the Niro PHEV, and that’s exactly why. You don’t use gas much, but it’s there if you need it.
I have a Honda Clarity PHEV and cannot recommend it enough. They should have marketed it as an Acura. As a used car, it’s truly lux at a modest car price, and costs almost nothing to operate.
If Honda makes anything similar when it’s time to replace, it’s certainly what I’ll get next, too.
You also may get/more than likely qualify for tax incentives on an L2 garage charger, depending on your state! Not at the top of my home repair list but I hope to do that here in NY eventually.
Denver has a program that offers rebates on not just the chargers but the service panel swap that may be necessary to install one. A charger and the new service panel for it cost us $2k after the rebate.
There’s definitely no reason for a homeowner to do a DC charger. A standard wall outlet seems fine in your case (unless you get one of the trucks). A regular old 220 outlet will handle the load for just about any EV
Do you have a dryer in your garage? How about the breaker box, is that in the garage?
Why would your clothes dryer be in your garage?
Neither, unfortunately. Both the laundry room and breaker box are upstairs. I do have electric baseboard heaters in a room adjacent to the garage, though, and I’m told those run on 220V, so that might make it slightly easier.
At 4,000 miles per year, you won’t be saving the planet switching to an EV. You are right, people’s situations are all unique, and the advice to switch to EV should be more individualized or at least generalized by yearly mileage driven. The word needs to get out that people who don’t drive much should be the last to switch to EV, if ever. I’ve done the numbers based on government numbers (fueleconomy.gov) for emissions both of the car and upstream based on your zip code (how clean the electricity is in your area), and at low yearly miles, it would take many years before you even reach the break-even point to cover the manufacturing of that new EV in my zip code at least.
That break-even point is far enough in the future that the EV should go to someone else for maximum reduction in global emissions. Remember, it’s not how little you emit individually, it’s how much we do on the whole. It’s also the classic car/nice sports car that gets driven on nice weekends argument . . . they don’t get driven enough to impact emissions and it’s actually counterproductive to the goal (carbon emissions reduction) to make everyone switch to EV.
To get the maximum reduction in emissions across the population, EVs should be used by the highest mileage drivers, so incentives should maybe be tilted that way somehow. People who drive 2,000 or 4,000 miles a year like me or you should be encouraged to keep driving their old, well-maintained, gasoline cars, especially if the cars aren’t gas guzzlers.
Yeah, I am under no illusion that I’ll be making much of a difference environmentally by switching to an EV. For me it’s all about how an EV could be a convenient practical fit for my car needs.
Battery packs also have a shelf life.
Most lithium-ion chemistries have one of 10-15 years, if and only if the battery was well taken care of and not abused. At that point, they should have around 70-80% of rated capacity. If you’re using Tesla LiIon packs and most other OEM-built packs with working BMS, that shelf life is going to lead to a pack’s early demise if you don’t use it, and that’s assuming you always keep it sufficiently charged so that it never bricks itself. These batteries are typically 220-280 Wh/kg specific capacity.
LiFePO4 can be more long-lasting, certain ones like CALB and CATL large format varieties, possibly 20-30 years. A large number of these batteries have died thus far from charging them below 32F temperatures or cycling dead too many times, but that is where their most significant weaknesses end. There are a number of CALB CA packs from 2013 demonstrating 6-digit mileage lifespans in hobbyist conversions without even having a BMS, and still delivering 95-100% nameplate capacity. A123 LiFePO4 batteries also have shelf life measurable in decades, as evidenced by all of the hotrod e-bikes out there running on disassembled Chevy Volt packs. A single string of LiFePO4 that is bottom balanced and with acceptably even resistance in all of the battery connections can be run for decades without needing a BMS, and would be perfect for a “dumb” plug-in hybrid EV built to be fully repairable with basic tools, and a PHEV system as a kit could be developed that is possibly even compatible with antique cars that still have carburetors, or even an outright EV conversion kit. These types of batteries are typically 80-150 Wh/kg for the “dumb” type that can be plug and play with EV conversions and minimal electronics(Headway are at 80 Wh/kg, A123 about 90-100 Wh/kg, CALB CA series about 120 Wh/kg, CATL about 150 Wh/kg), but there are denser LiFePO4 packs used in cars approaching 200 Wh/kg, that are horrendously complicated things as most OEM packs are, but which are using a more robust chemistry.
An EV built for a person that only drives 4,000 miles a year would ideally use a battery with a long shelf life. If the shelf life of the battery passes with insufficient miles travelled for the emissions reduction to exceed the excess emissions generated in producing the battery, and the battery has to be replaced before the break-even point vs ICE, your electric car ends up being MORE polluting overall than the ICE it replaced. LiFePO4 may be a chemistry that could still prove greener. Most Lithium Ion, not so much.
Lithium Ion is what is commonly used on OEM packs, especially large crossovers, SUVs, and trucks, because these inefficient platforms need that high energy density to get adequate range in a pack that will fit. This is a complete and utter misuse of and waste of the technology. One 220 kWh Silverado battery pack granting it a 400 mile range, could build a 28 kWh pack for each of 8 sedans or hatchbacks, and with proper streamlining, those sedans or hatchbacks could have a 200+ mile range. These lithium ion batteries are a massive e-waste problem in the making with these bloated oversized vehicles they are being reserved for, while the relatively scarce minerals needed to make these battery packs become increasingly depleted.
You’re certainly correct that much of the important information about EVs is difficult to find. Things such as DC fast charging curves (especially at different temperatures) are basically not advertised, and only from 3rd parties that test, and I’ve certainly not seen anything from any manufacturer on the charging efficiency of L1 (110V) vs. L2 (220V) at different ambient temperatures. Personal experience has been that L1 can be up to 90% efficient at nice temps, but drops to ~50% at -20C temps. Most consumers would be clueless what this info means, but it should still be provided.
For battery longevity timewise, it sounds like LFP batteries are likely better, but maybe not at cold temperatures. Since you don’t need much range, your use case would do well with ~30 kWh of LFP batteries in a simple, less expensive car, but this doesn’t really exist in the US at this point. The focus on long range, expensive, high tech cars really is non-optimal for the most part as far as I’m concerned. As others have said, a standard outlet would be fine for charging (I’ve driven up to 1700 miles in a month charging exclusively off a standard outlet, although that is about absolute best case).
With the cost of new cars these days I just… can’t. I have an amazing three-car fleet that I bought for a combined cost of under $35,000 in 2017 and 2018 and now I’d be looking for that kind of money or more just to buy one decent “new-to-me” vehicle. I’m in good shape for myself for years to come but my wife’s car will need to be replaced in the next three years and I’m not looking forward to it. When I do replace my wife’s car I’m likely to look at a plug-in hybrid CUV.
My kid just bought a used Bolt for $14k (and that before the $4k used EV tax rebate). It’s the lower trim model, but still has Apple CarPlay and Android Auto — and has a newish 260-mile-range battery (thanks to the Bolt battery recall). If people want a car that saves on costs from fuel, oil changes, brake pads, smog checks, etc., there are definitely some affordable options to consider if buying used.
All this talk about EV supply, but maybe it’s my misunderstanding of how they calc it. They say there’s 92k EVs on lots, expectation is 1m EV sales in 2023, thats 83k a month, then how is there over a 3 month supply as they claim?
I’ve thought about what would hypothetically happen if my daily got totaled and I needed to replace it and I’ve come to the conclusion that if that ever happened, I’d almost certainly have to buy used. I bought my Fiesta brand new in 2019 and it was about 24k fully loaded. These days, there simply isn’t anything at that price point that I’d actually want to own and anything I would want to drive is unaffordable to me.
Electric vehicles are a whole different can of worms. Not only can I not really afford any of them, I can’t really charge one either. Like many others, I rent my house so upgrades aren’t my call to make. I have two un-grounded 110v outlets in my garage that I don’t really trust to handle the loads of charging a car. We don’t have 240v anywhere in this house, even the drier is gas. My landlord isn’t the type to spend money that he doesn’t have to so if I went to him and said that he needs to upgrade the electrical to charge a car, he’d tell me that I should have just stuck with a gas car instead.
Also, I don’t live in the most high class of areas so there are very few public chargers close to my house because no one around me can really afford EVs either. There’s a bank of Tesla superchargers a few miles up the road and a couple of old level 2 chargers at gas stations closer to me but that’s it and I’m certainly not willing to deal with the hassle of either sitting at a crappy gas station for several hours or leaving my car there and finding another way home every time I need a charge.
Even having my own place, I only have 100 amp service so a 220 v charger would probably require a service upgrade and those are very expensive.
Not necessarily…….you may only have 100amp service, but the charger doesn’t draw that much power, and you aren’t using all 100 available amps at any one time, are you? think about what you have in the house that draws power, then add up the amps required to run those things – that’s your average usage. I’m sure you have enough headroom to run the car charger, especially overnight when you’re asleep.
There are devices like splitvolt that let you share an existing 220v dryer or A/C circuit with the EV charger (basically if the dryer or A/C starts up the charger shuts down) so you don’t necessarily even need a panel upgrade. But like MiniDave said you can do a load calculation to be sure you even need one of those. I have a 150amp service and run a 48amp EV charger, A/C, dryer electric oven, and a 2,220sqft house and have additional capacity available.
Most people (myself included) view an EV as a second car. Yes, you can road trip an EV, especially a Tesla, but it adds hours to the trip so why would you?
$60k for a second / commuter car is a huge ask and a pretty bad way to save money. Today’s purchasers have large incomes and are buying them for the superior driving experience (IMO), the green image projection, and/or the home charging convenience. I’m afraid that market is now saturated.
I’ve made the point for a few years now that most 2-car house holds in the US could easily have one of those cars be electric, more-or-less without changing one thing about their driving habits. (While there is more to my argument, I’m leaving it short for some brevity.)
The one issue that I don’t have an answer for in my case is the price of BEVs. Thanks to Carvana’s buying spree last year, they said they’d give me completely stupid money for my car, and I let them. When looking for a new car, as much as I wanted to get a BEV, there was no way it would even have been close to in the budget, even if I stretched a bit.
I don’t quite agree with you that the market you claim is the only one out there, but I also can’t say you’re completely wrong.
Totally agree on the 2nd car thing. If you actually like using your car on a somewhat regular basis for road trips and weekend adventures it’s really hard to justify an EV as your only car but also hard to justify how much EVs cost to do nothing but work commute and run city errands.
My Volt is my primary, and I bought it exactly because it is a PHEV. I can do the longer trips and the around town. But a BEV is tough. My hiker friend has to calculate where he can go in his Ioniq5
About once or twice a month, I have to a 350 mile round trip in a single day. There is no EV that would be able to do this year-round without worrying about charging at least once per trip. Winter reduces the range too much.
The rest of the time, I’m commuting just over 18 miles, round trip.
My Honda Clarity PHEV is perfect for my situation, and there are far more like me than there are that can live with an EV as a primary vehicle.
Long live the PHEV!
Real talk, how often are people going on road trips to point of needing a whole separate car for the occasion? Maybe I’m a boring person, but I haven’t driven a car more then three hours in one sitting in years. There’s a whole host of things that take you places that you don’t have to operate. This “electric car no go far”, seems like such a small use case in the market. Like for the dozens of people driving between Odessa, Texas to Other place in Texas, sure. For everyone else though, are you really going to drive from Buffalo to Boca Raton? No, your going to think about how fun it would be, as you buy a plane ticket.
I go to see my family a couple times a year, and I drive something like 6 hours or so in one sitting…and I think an EV would be a healthier choice for me. I regret sitting in the car that long pretty much every time.
This is exactly the point, no one wants to do that, so their primary car has to be capable of making a road trip.
Your close-to-home-only usage is much more the outlier. Most people take at least a couple road trips a year, whether up north to the cabin, or to see family, or to go camping, or what have you. Just look at the highways on summer weekends or around holidays.
I mean I also do these things. But take trains, buses and planes and stuff. With the exception of a cabins, we have other options here. I live in a vacation town, it’s packed with people who unnecessarily drive here just clogging up are crappy roads. Also this car forum so maybe bias, I would be surprised if most people do a three hour trip more then twice a year.
-Length of the trip is not defined, but 90% of Americans reported taking a “road trip” in 2021, and 75% took more than four.
https://swnsdigital.com/us/2021/05/90-of-americans-have-taken-at-least-one-road-trip-in-the-past-year/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20research%20conducted,%25)%20taking%20more%20than%20four.
-Over 60% planned to take a trip over 250 miles from home (~3 hours) by car just over the summer of 2022.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/208-million-american-adults-81-to-travel-for-summer-2022-with-80-planning-to-road-trip-according-to-a-survey-by-the-vacationer-301521002.html
Of course people fly too (I’ve never met a person who took a vacation by train or bus). But the idea that range anxiety and road trips are some fringe phenomenon that people will “just get over” with enough time, or to expect people to buy a primary car for $50,000+ that isn’t capable of taking a road trip to me is foolishness.
East coast bias, but it surprises me you never met a person who has taken a train or a bus to a vacation. Of these 60% (which is wild to me it’s that high) need to be taken via a personal vehicle as their only option. Other options have always existed. We just chose this option of personal convenience (at a surprisingly increasing rate given the situation). Ignoring that our lives can function perfectly fine without having the choice to drive 1000 miles with minimal stops.
But if you must take a personal vehicle. Say 300 mile range car, person living in the Northeast corridor like most people do. if you drive 1000 miles you would be stopped for what maybe two hours or something depending on charger and location. Is that really that big of inconvenience? If a large swath of America is hesitant to change to an EV to save a few hours, four or so times a year. My whole problem with the EV can’t road argument, is it’s based on a argument based around personal inconveniences, that people should get over rather then reality.
That’s definitely “east coast bias” (“living in the Northeast corridor like most people do”)! Here, in flyover country, after you factor in the TSA and flying, gambling on Amtrak, or just driving, it’s gonna be 300 miles and 4-5 hours between Chicago and St Louis, with any of the options. Driving your personal vehicle is the cheapest way to go AND you’re not held hostage to someone else’s schedule or baggage limits AND you won’t need a rental car on the other end (because the public transit options generally suck, if they’re available, at all).
And, FWIW, there are 50M-60M people living in the NEC, out of a national population of 333M. 15%-18% is FAR from “most”!
NEC is the most populated section of US and in random use case using the most likely person in America. Also The Midwest isn’t exactly the Sahara. The train between St. Louis and Chicago is 40 to 70 bucks for tomorrow fares and leaves every two hours. Cheaper further out. And the bus is 33 dollars and leaves slightly sporadically. Both will take you right next to the El in Chicago. Yeah it’s slightly inconvenient but one of the two leaves every hour. And for a family it might be more expensive, but even for a family of four that parks in the loop for six hours, now the train is cheaper. These options exist all over America, but the narrative has been that they suck.
Parking in the loop is nowhere near as expensive as you think, as long as you use an app to find and reserve your space.
Going by bus or train to Chicago is downright awful for a family of four.
Your comments make a lot more sense to me knowing that you live in the NE corridor, but as Jimmy has pointed out, that is not the default experience for the other 85% of the country.
I’ll use a personal example, obviously not everyone has this exact situation, but among Midwesterners it’s hardly unique.
I drive from Indiana to my parents’ house in Minneapolis several times a year, including winter holidays. Just under 500 miles one way. For the trips at Christmas, I need to plan for it to be 0 degrees F; often it’s colder.
An EPA rated 300 mile range EV provides more like 200 highway miles in those conditions. If I’m lucky. Which means at least two lengthy recharge stops where my kids are outside in freezing weather. And for what benefit? So that I can save a few lb of CO2 while China builds new coal plants and container ships burn more bunker oil in an hour than I’ll burn gas in my life? Of course it’s personal inconvenience, but that’s what matters to my family and me. Those hours are more important to me than a vague “doing my share” drop in the bucket.
Despite my comments here, I promise I’m not opposed to owning an EV someday. But the simple fact is that it basically has to be without compromises vs an ICE. Those compromises (as they currently exist) are not something I’m going to “get over”, not for as long as the government gives me a choice in the matter.
Oddly enough my parents also live in Minneapolis. When I go back, I drive 12 miles to the train station, park for free (or ride my bike) take the train multiple small states to Logan and take the light rail from MSP to their town and they pick me up. 180 bucks all together, eight hours transit time. Half the country traveled with 18 miles total driven. And we do have to compromise, but long distance personal travel between two populated is easily replaced by most people with mild effort and willingness to share space.
Option#2, don’t make those trips at all.
I’ll be sure to tell my aging parents they can’t see their grandkids as often because people on the internet think I’m silly for wanting to avoid 2 extra hours each way to charge an EV.
I am in SW Virginia. We have a greyhound station 20 minutes -by car- away and that it is it for public/mass transportation. CLT is 2.5 hours away. If I go anywhere other than the grocery store I am looking at 2.5 hours.
The funny thing is that our EV is used as our primary car and the gas cars are only used when the EV is otherwise occupied. We take about 3-4 long trips a year so stopping for charging isn’t a big deal. Helps that it’s a Tesla so the options are plentiful, but there is never a time we NEED to use the gas car because the EV won’t get it done. The EV is always the preference for daily use just because it’s easier to use and cheaper to power.