As electric vehicles continue to gain market share, fear of depreciation hangs a certain cloud over the entire battery-powered car market. From dealers possibly dumping inventory to massive price cuts on Teslas, headlines suggest that it’s been a rough twelve months for EV resale value. However, data reporting requires context, so let’s crunch some data and figure out where things stand.
Let’s start in 2019, before anyone knew about chip shortages and shipping delays. Mainstream electric vehicles were undisputed depreciation champions before the pandemic-induced used car boom. According to the analysts at iSeeCars, back in 2019, the average five-year-old Tesla Model S depreciated 61.5 percent, the average five-year-old BMW i3 depreciated 70.9 percent, and the average five-year-old Nissan Leaf depreciated 71 percent. As for average EV depreciation, it stood at 67.1 percent, but it pulled from a small sample of five models.
Fast forward to 2023, and we’re seeing much slower depreciation on used EVs than we did before the pandemic. Keep in mind, this latest data from iSeeCars shows depreciation over five years, a longer term than the 2019 study. It also pulled from a small sample of five models, so take the headline of EVs averaging 49.1 percent depreciation with a grain of salt. The results that really matter? The fastest depreciating EV in the study, the Tesla Model S, depreciated 55.5 percent over five years. While that still sounds strong, it’s actually on par with several midsize luxury sedans like the BMW 5 Series (55.3 percent), Volvo S90 (55.8 percent), and Audi A6 (56.3 percent).
In the same study, the average Chevrolet Bolt EV depreciated by 51.1 percent over five years, but it’s worth keeping in mind that there are extenuating circumstances here. The 2018 model year was well before price cuts and a facelift came for the Bolt, and some of that financial loss may be mitigated by the potential lifespan extension of brand-new battery packs installed as part of a recall. On a slightly different note, the Nissan Leaf depreciated by 50.8 percent, but it’s a car hobbled by uncommon CHAdeMO charging protocol and the first-generation model’s reputation for rapid battery degradation. Model-specific price cuts and the quality of the vehicle both play into retained value, and those aren’t just EV-specific issues.
Mind you, model-specific price cuts do play an outsized role in market volatility. A recent Automotive News report claims greater fluctuation in used EV pricing versus pricing of used combustion cars, with Tesla’s 2023 price cuts reportedly being a factor.
Indeed, as prices come down on new EVs, prices for used EVs should follow suit. We’ve seen this with other forms of technology before, from VCRs to smartphones. However, it’s hard to predict exactly how far and how soon EV prices will fall, so this is a moving target of sorts. It’s also worth noting that the Manheim index of all used vehicle wholesale transactions at auction saw a 14.32 percent decline last year from the year’s peak, so a solid chunk of EV depreciation at the moment is just due to used car values settling out.
So, are used EVs a good deal or a bad deal? Well, it depends entirely on your needs, budget, and expectations. If you’re able to charge at home, the savings of overnight electricity rates can fight back against depreciation. However, if you can’t charge at home or at work, and want something with an extensive history of strong resale value, an EV might not be the best for you at this particular moment in time. At the end of the day, everyone’s situation is individual, so it pays to stay informed and make sensible decisions that best suit your needs.
Overall, it seems that the sky isn’t falling when it comes to EV depreciation. Battery-powered cars are in a better resale position as a whole than they were five years ago, and that trend may continue. When you’re looking at an emerging sector with a relatively small volume, day-to-day fluctuation is a given, but trends indicate that so long as new EVs gain sales volume and thus desirability, used EVs should also see improved desirability in the near term.
If there’s an even bigger price war, a sudden influx of cheaper Chinese EVs, or some sort of huge technology shift in third-generation cars this could change. However, the odds of any or all of those things suddenly happening are low enough that it’s not worth freaking out about yet.
(Photo credits: Chevrolet, Tesla, Ford)
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I daily drive a Bolt and I love it. Depreciation was a feature — a lot of great cars on the used market. Range is better than anything else at the same price point and you can feel the effort GM put into this car. Heated seats, heated steering wheel, blindspot detection, android auto. I have the same David Tracy feeling of having the nicest car I’ve ever owned.
The first and second gen EV’s (2012-2018) are likely to be orphaned as far as batteries go simply because not enough of them were made for a healthy secondary market. (Except for the leaf which is largely owned by the type of nerd willing to do a cell level battery replacement.)
I’d be willing to wager that by the time battery replacements will be a major lifetime issue (mid 2030s or so) battery replacement will be significantly cheaper. It’s already to the point where I can get I replacement battery for my e-golf for about 5k, and prices will continue to drop. Is that a new-in-box OEM replacement? No. But then, I’m not spending 25k on crate engines to drop in used cars either, I’m getting something functional enough from the junkyard or ebay.
Once the raw cost of cells have gotten cheap enough, you’ll see more hacks available for replacing or even upgrading batteries. We’re still at the point where OEMs have difficulty sourcing batteries for new production, let alone enough manufacturing capacity for a healthy secondary market. Give it time, this is one of those situations where it really is just waiting on the market to provide a solution.
Everyone discussing batteries here, comparing replacement ot an engine replacement……
My thoughts.
Our own DT just bought a 19 year old van with 230,000 miles for $500.
Yes, it needed some wear parts replaced, but the van was able to easily travel over 1,000 miles. To quote DT, “It ran great!”
Now, would a 19 year old EV be the same? I think not. At that age it will need an expensive battery replacement for sure. No one would want to put a several thousand dollar battery into a 19 year old $500 vehicle.
I think this will lead to many EVs being scrapped way earlier than comparable ICE vehicles. Not exactly great for the environment.
EVs will one day be great, I am sure. We just are not there yet.
What will get us there you ask?
A standard battery format/design would be a great start.
Make that battery modular and easy to replace.
Much like DT picked up a new 12 volt battery at Walmart and had the van cranking right up….Imagine standard EV batteries in a few different shapes and capacities that could easily be bought, and swapped into a car with standardized connections.
This is what will get EVs moved into the mainstream and ensure a robust used vehicle market.
Keep kidding yourselves while trying to drive 300 miles in traffic to somewhere and not spending a day to do it. Or living in urban area. Or the fact that all of the already terrible infrastructure now has a bunch of 5k lb vehicles chewing it up further. It’s the equivalent of everyone having at least a half ton pickup while in something the size of a Jetta. They’re niche vehicles without either the infrastructure or range technology to make them mainstream. Without government subsidies 60% of ev’s wouldn’t be in a driveway right now. Let’s not even talk of the carbon blueprint to make one and the coal fired generation to produce the electricity to charge one on an already taxed power grid. The market sorts bad ideas out. I think you can get a mood ring on eBay for a couple of bucks. Which is where the market on these is heading. Unfortunately it will take down a lot of major players who bet wrong.
I thought EV depreciation was always a concern. I remember when I leased my Leaf years ago that I didn’t even consider buying since values of non-Tesla EVs would drop like crazy.
I’m going today to pick up my 2019 Bolt I just bought – after the used EV tax credit it was $10,700. It has a brand new battery replaced under recall and is warranted until 2029. In my case I’m not sad about EV depreciation.
You found an exception, not the rule……and way to go on that score. Those are solid choices for a decent round the town EV.
Yep for longer trips we also have a Volt. So a Volt and a Bolt.
The only used EV’s people need to worry about are PHEV’s. The batteries are small and therefore run a lot more charge/discharge cycles for the same mileage. After 5 years a PHEV battery can easily be toast whereas a full EV battery still has life in it.
PHEVs have been around for over 10 years now. Is there evidence PHEV batteries crap out in 5?
It probably depends a lot on the PHEVs, but first-gen Volt batteries are definitely starting to drop after around 10-12 years. I think the i3 batteries are kinda similar – 10 years and 100,000 miles and they start dropping. Replacement costs are still on the high side, ~$5K for a Volt battery, but I assume that’ll come down a bit further with time and volume.
If GM were smart (and in so many cases we know they’re not) they’d free up the buffer zone on old Volt batteries. If your car is 12 years old and capacity’s dropping does it really still need the 20-80% operating range limitation anymore?
I’ll just keep waiting for my future gently used electric Camry so I can enjoy being surrounded on the highway by other folks in their electric RAV-4’s and avoid being run off the road by other drivers in what’s left of their electric Altimas.
I think the values are holding up remarkably well considering used EVs are:
Put all that together and I’m surprised the depreciation isn’t far more than it is.
I’ve got 2 more years of my company car lease left. It’s an Skoda Enyaq 80x, which is ID4 AWD with less capacitive stuff. I hope the value will tank meanwhile and I can get the car for next to nothing. If it proves to be half solid runner other vise.
I think maybe the comparison to computers would be useful.
Computers keep getting cheaper and higher performance. Nobody is complaining that what was a quarter of a million dollar computer 30 years ago is outperformed by a 40 dollar computer now.
Or how about early internal combustion automobiles?
According to Wikipedia re the model T:
”In 1909, the cost of the Runabout started at $825 (equivalent to $26,870 in 2022). By 1925 it had been lowered to $260 (equivalent to $4,340 in 2022).”
Were people complaining about falling prices then?
30 years ago there were home computers running Windows and they cost about $1000 at the time.
I was thinking of higher end computers
“In 1978, the Cray-1 supercomputer cost $7 million, weighed 10,500 pounds and had a 115 kilowatt power supply. It was, by far, the fastest computer in the world,” Longbottom writes of the device, designed as the flagship product of Seymour Cray’s high-performance computing company. “The Raspberry Pi costs around $70 (CPU board, case, power supply, SD Card), weighs a few ounces, uses a five watt power supply and is more than 4.5 times faster than the Cray 1
https://www.hackster.io/news/roy-longbottom-pits-1976-s-cray-1-supercomputer-against-the-raspberry-pi-single-board-computer-range-152bbe2d4111
30 Years ago was 1994.
I wish 1978 was only 30 years ago. My knees would feel a lot better.
Yeah I’m still remediating the y2k bug, how much was a SGI 4D Crimson in 94?
Had to loom that up and the wiki said early versions used a Motorola 68000. It made me miss my Amiga 500.
When I think about “old” computers outlasting their planned/designed usefulness, I think of my 2009 Dell Inspiron laptop that a friend has for Audacity and hobby/casual use.
Bought it for $1000 at the time with Windows Vista, when I was in 8th grade.
Upgraded it to Windows 7, then, 8, then 10, and it still runs now, 15 years later. Although we’ll have to move it to a Linux distro once Windows 10 is out of support at the end of next year.
Upgraded it to an SSD somewhere along the line and it’s surprisingly competent. 4GB of RAM is a bummer, and while it could be upgraded to 8GB, DDR2 RAM is $100 for 2x4GB.
Definitely the oldest running computer in my immediate circle.
I’ll have to check the age, but my wife is still using my prior laptop. I’m still using my 2016 thinkpad. I don’t game or do any 3d modeling, and it’s fine for office aps and web browsing. I’m going to be in the same boat when win10 support runs out. I didn’t get discreet graphics (spec’d this for battery life when I bought it) and the integrated graphics won’t do Win11.
The integrated “graphics” (generous term) for my ancient one only has 64MB of graphics memory. But really it’s the ancient processor and missing security hardware (TPM, etc.) that’s the limiter, I think.
Sounds like a candidate for Linux.
It seems like only a couple of weeks ago that everyone was complaining that there weren’t any inexpensive used EVs. Now that there are inexpensive used EVs everyone is complaining about that.
I fail to see a problem with this.
Why do people treat cars like investments? It’s an expense, and can be a big expense. If a buyer can’t stomach owning a depreciating asset then they should lease, or better yet they should live somewhere walkable with excellent public transportation and bike lanes.
EV prices add a wrinkle with the weird price adjustments and tax incentives, but at the end of the day you are still losing money just like any other car.
But given that different assets depreciate at different rates, it’s rational to want to minimize losses.
And if one type of vehicles typically have a steeper depreciation curve than another type, that seems worth remarking on, especially if buyers are being nudged/coerced in that direction. One need not look at their cars as an “investment” to see value in that.
In my opinion, one should treat cars like entertainers in topless bars. You know you are going to have to spend some money to have a good time. The exotic ones are both more expensive and more trouble. What strikes your fancy is often irrational as well. But don’t overthink it.
At the end of the day, those Benjamins will be gone, so make sure you enjoyed the ride.
If you don’t like depreciation, buy a fully depreciated vehicle and get a good deal.
Use it to get you to your job, ie facilitate the earning of money.
When you’re done, sell it for more than you paid. A net gain.
Rinse and repeat.
Minimizing losses is exactly the same as saving money. And there is a rock solid way to do it with cars.
Avoid new.Buy when the bulk of the depreciation has passed! Usually at 2 or 3 years
I’ve been looking at GV70s lately. 2-3 years old they seem to sell for around $40k, with original sticker of ~$60k. Then I looked into them a little more and these things were one of the top markup cars when they sold new. So someone paid ~$80k (and lost $40k) to drive a fancy Hyundai for 2 years.
Everything I buy always tanks in popularity and value five minutes after I buy it. I’ll let everyone here know if I get around to buying an EV so that you all can dump yours first.
Start a Youtube channel or podcast! I would subscribe to “The Canopysaurus Buyer’s Guide” to learn what to avoid.
This is an easy problem to solve: be explicit about replacement batteries and associated equipment (e.g., the battery controller), both availability and cost.
I would happily buy a used 500e or e-Golf today if I knew I could get a new battery/BECM in a worst-case scenario, but I know Fiat doesn’t have them and I can’t get a straight answer from VW. I also have a 2018 Volt that GM doesn’t sell floor mats or trim pieces for any more, so I have little confidence that they’ll have a battery when I need one (beyond the 8-year 1000,000mi warranty period).
“be explicit about replacement batteries and associated equipment (e.g., the battery controller), both availability and cost.”
So when you go out to purchase a new ICE – Do you first check to see how much replacement motors, exhaust systems, radiators, control systems, etc cost?
“So when you go out to purchase a new ICE – Do you first check to see how much replacement motors, exhaust systems, radiators, control systems, etc cost?”
Yes. When you purchase a new ICE car at the dealership, the salesman will present you with a list of replacement parts for your new vehicle, along with their outrageous prices. He will then carry on about how these parts are likely to fail, leaving your vehicle dead and bankrupting you.
Surprisingly, the purpose of this is not to convince you that you’ve actually bought a steaming pile of shit, but rather just a ploy to scare you into buying a bogus warranty.
Right? Y’all just got done telling me this was the best car ever, and now you’re telling me it’s a piece of shit that will leave me broke and car-less if I don’t get an extended service contract? Which is it?
Although, to be fair, it’s usually the F&I manager that tries to coax you into getting extra products like service contracts. The salesperson generally doesn’t care.
I’ve seen it both ways, but honestly for me it’s usually the salesman.
Of course it’s only a precursor to the F&I Office, where they’ll hit you up for the LoJack, paint sealing, rust proofing, etc.
NO BECAUSE THOSE LAST FOR DECADES
They used to at least. Now with direct injection, and other changes in the name of efficiency good luck getting much over 200k without at least a top-end rebuild.
I actually do check for availability and pricing on replacement engines and transmissions before buying. I have the tools and can swap out an engine at home, so I figure that’s the biggest mechanical repair expense I’d face.
The question was about “new” ICE cars, though, which should have at least a 5-year warranty, so whatever price you find now is not going to be relevant 6 or 10 years from now when you might actually need the engine. I think that was the point.
Really?
On a new car?
Why?
I tend to hold onto cars for a while. If you hold onto one long enough, the engine’s coming out eventually.
I didn’t run numbers, but my guess is that ICE parts will be more available and cheaper over the long and longer run. While it is true that EV parts might last a little longer, when they fail, you pay more. Could be close to a wash in the <10 year range, but >10 year experience might be more like owning an old BMW.
Being able to find an engine (rebuilt/salvage) for a 10 -15 year old RAV4 at a price that is much less than 1/3 of the price of the car new is almost a given. Batteries for 10-15 year old EVs that are technologically a generation or 2 in the history books are a whole different endeavor.
Heck, the odds of that well maintained 15 year old RAV4 engine performing well compared to when it was new is good. Whereas the 15 year old battery, if it is still functional, will be poor.
Why does everyone keep asking this question? They are misunderstanding how this value proposition works. No one will ever replace a good electric car’s bad battery. In very rare circumstances, you will MAYBE replace a good EV battery’s bad car.
When the battery goes bad, the car is a parts car.
Exactly.
If your new EV battery goes bad in less than 10 years – you’ve done something to destroy the battery whether thru major-high mileage, low usage, battery charging mismanagement, or physical damage.
That’s true, but 10 years is still much too short a minimum for a vehicle unless we’re getting these things down to $20k well equipped
I’m sure I read an article somewhere in the past year that with proper care and feeding, EV batteries generally degrade less than 15% in 10 years time.
Which means your 300 mile range when new is roughly 255 miles after 10 years.
That’s better battery capacity retention than this laptop I’m using to write this.
The data I get to see (but unfortunately can’t reprint) in the industry suggests that’s a little optimistic, but just a little. You should expect a relatively steep drop down to maybe ~95% capacity in the first year or two of ownership, followed by a 1-2% loss per year after that.
This does, however, assume that users and the manufacturer’s BMS system follow “the rules” – don’t fully charge, don’t fully discharge, don’t stay at high SOC, don’t stay at low SOC, don’t DC fast charge, don’t let it get too hot, don’t let it get too cold, etc. If you treat it like a cell phone battery, you should expect it to degrade like one.
Take 15% off the top for aging, another 30% for cold weather/highway speed penalty, then lock out the top and bottom 15% SOC for longevity protection, and your 300 mile range suddenly becomes a real world day-to-day usable 125 miles of range, and that’s still a bit of a problem. It’s why I keep telling the friends and family that ask for advice that they shouldn’t get themselves an EV unless they fully understand that they’re buying a new technology with new rules about how you use it. It’s not a drop-in replacement for your your combustion car and it probably never will be.
Thomas I have to thank you for the funniest read of today. Don’t worry about EV depreciation because:
1. As a result of poor production of batteries there was a recall and you can get new batteries on used EVs? Not everyone gets the I3 deal DT did.
2. As a result of EVs being so much more expensive than ICE vehicles even after the worse depreciation they are almost worth what the cheaper ICE cars are worth.
In my younger years the Big 3 offered 12 month 12,000 mile warranty. When the Japanese came in offering better warranty because better build the Big 3 offered equal warranty but without better build. So they finally built better. Now we can get a 10 year 100,000 mile POWERTRAIN warranty. An EV with its less moving parts less maintenance is a power train warranty. Sooner or later you are replacing the entire EV Power train and ending up with a new power train in a car with 8 year old everything else. So why is this better. I don’t thing poor build quality will serve as a good base for a new battery. Rusty fittings everywhere, probably not covered, like the used car warranties dint cover, needing new everything leads to insurance scrapping it it and the owner owing more than they can get for it.
Think about it. Put a new $15,000 battery packing it’s available, in a 10 year old car with 10 year old everything. Why is EV a thing? Oh yeah every year everything in the batteries gets more rare and more expensive. STOP THE MADNESS!!
Insert meme of flattop bleach blinde exercise chick from the 80s. Can’t we get memes?
“ Sooner or later you are replacing the entire EV Power train and ending up with a new power train in a car with 8 year old everything else”
EV batteries are not an “entire powertrain”
You’re not replacing motors or electrical wiring systems.
Just batteries – which are coming down in costs every year – and as EVs become more mainstream, should become more serviceable as well.
We’re already reading articles about how clever and industrious individuals are pulling battery packs and replacing individual cells – thereby eliminating much of the costs of replacing entire battery packs.
I disagree. Everything wears out. Paying 70% of new to replace the batteries on an 8 tear old car with 8 year old everything is not an investment I would consider. The wear and tear and brushes and carbon build up is cost new for a 10 year old vehicle. You ever work on electronics. EVs are like elevators on complexity and cost. If it wasn’t inside a building elevators are cheaper to replace than maintain
Never heard of an electric car(this century) with brushed motors…….
Okay but whatever they are built out of they either wear out as they are used or they never wear out. So nothing is permanent so yes they wear out. Whats your point Poindexter just proper terminology? Sorry for Poindexter that has been in my lexology and you don’t have a lot of uses for it.
I have read more than a few of your comments over the last few days and would kindly invite you to relax and have some fun. We’re all car loving Autopians, here— let’s keep it cordial.
Sorry if I was too circumspect. I never mean offense. However my observations of the site is they are not that observant of the business and economic aspects of the industry. EVs are a poor investment even as vehicles. The site doesn’t take this into consideration. Whileci enjoy the site I think readers deserve a decent business and economic coverage along with the wonderful educational experience they get.
Blanket statements tend to be poor advice…
Can we get an exception for quilts?
Only if handmade
Damn you
FWIW, the latest BMWs like the iX have an “electrically excited synchronous motor” which uses slip rings, aka brushes and a commutator. This allows them to not use any rare earth magnets, and keep customers coming in for expensive maintenance.
Used Tesla motors are cheaper than used Subaru engines – and easier to replace.
Plug and Play.