Elon Musk Predicts Level 4 Or 5 Full Self-Driving ‘Later This Year’ For the Tenth Year In A Row

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There are lots of things I don’t understand. Dutch. Crocs worn by people over 14 or if you’re not wading in water. String theory. People who get really into wine. But, perhaps most significantly, I absolutely do not understand why Elon Musk, noted billionaire, entrepreneur, Twitter messer-upper, and general Big Deal would claim that Tesla is going to achieve Level 4 or 5 fully automated self driving this year. I don’t understand it because not only do I think Tesla isn’t anywhere close to achieving this goal, but he’s made this same promise for an entire decade. Yes, my friends, 2023 marks the tenth time Elon has predicted full, no-human-required autonomy “this year” or sometimes “next year.” Why does he keep doing it?

This latest prediction came at the opening ceremonies at the 2023 World AI Conference in Shanghai, China. Elon video-phoned in his remarks and was displayed on a big screen at the conference, where he said this:

Yes, that’s right, this year. According to Musk,

“I think we are very close to achieving full self-driving without human supervision… I think we will achieve full self driving, depending on what level you call it, four or five, I think later this year.”

Now, he does add

“Now I’ve been wrong about this prediction in the past,”

Yeah, no shit. Which is why I’m writing this, because if I made wrong public predictions about things nine years in a row, I might consider holding back for that tenth one. But hey, I’m not the richest man in the world, am I? I’m just some dipshit whose last major purchase was five quarts of motor oil.

[Editor’s Note: Jason and I had a disagreement about whether this is worth reporting on1 in the first place. My argument is that we’ve heard “Musk promises something that he’s not delivered on in the past” many times before, so why keep reporting it? Jason says people are talking about this new promise, so it’s newsworthy. He’s not wrong, but I’m kind of over it. -DT]. 

Here’s a video (admittedly compiled by a known Tesla FSD critic, but all of the clips are of Elon himself, saying these words) of Musk promising full, no-human-needed driving automation for 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022.

Then we have another prediction for 2021 instead of 2022 in this earnings call:

So, that’s nine times, total, and with his newest prediction of later 2023, that brings us up to a nice, round ten times.

Ten times! Why? Why does he do this? I don’t understand it? Who is this helping? The FSD Beta software, while impressive in many ways, has not shown itself to be anywhere near close to being able to drive without human intervention at the levels that would be needed to qualify as a Level 4 or 5 system. Remember, those levels aren’t based on a given feature set, but rather describe the demands of the human and the operational driving domain.

Current Tesla FSD Beta is a Level 2 system, because the driver is always needed to be alert and ready to take over at a moment’s notice, something we saw very publicly demonstrated a couple weeks ago when, during a livestreamed debate between a pro-FSD Beta advocate and a critic, the Tesla operating under FSD Beta ran a stop sign and almost smacked into another car, but the crisis was averted because the human took control:

I’m sure Elon is telling the truth when he said in that video at the AI conference that he “almost never needs to touch the controls,” but that’s not nearly enough to qualify a system that, if it were to be Level 4 or 5, would not require any human attention whatsoever. And FSD in its current state has by no means proved itself to be ready to operate with no human attention, not by a long shot.

What I don’t understand is the motivation for these claims here. Is he simply unaware of the current state of the software? Is he just wildly optimistic? Is this a deliberate tactic to achieve some manner of financial gain I’m too dumb to fully understand, or is it just a boast? Maybe he doesn’t care? I mean, I think most people would feel pretty self-conscious after being so publicly wrong for so many years in a row – he can’t just let one year slide by without making the same dumb claim? It’s already July, mothertruster!

What’s this do to the poor staff that works on FSD at Tesla? The big boss has just handed them a near-impossible unofficial deadline; even if it’s just said in passing, it’s still said very publicly, and that has to be putting pressure on that team.

I don’t know. Maybe this is what happens if you’re so rich that nobody can tell you to shut your big yap anymore; you end up saying shit like this to the whole world, with seemingly zero ability to self-reflect. Maybe this is all a side effect of a medical condition caused by an overabundance of Vitamin D in Musk’s colon, caused by people like these blowing so much sunshine up his ass:

Tweets

Fucking hell.

Since Elon has decided to make this, again, tenth bold prediction that Tesla will have L4 or 5 fully automated, no human needed driving before the year is out, maybe I’ll indulge myself and come up with a prediction of my own:

No, they won’t.

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118 thoughts on “Elon Musk Predicts Level 4 Or 5 Full Self-Driving ‘Later This Year’ For the Tenth Year In A Row”

  2. Elon and Crocs have something in common. Every time some damn fool tells me how wonderful they are I hang my head and weep for humanity.

  3. Secondly, about DT’s note : it’s sadly newsworthy, as musk as lied 10 times about that, in the past to unlock investments. You’re not talking about musk or tesla, you’re warning about a major SCAM. And i think that’s pretty much one of the important mission of a media outlet. Thanks for that JT.

    2. Yes because this is all a great big secret and noone knows Musk has said this 10 years in a row. A true journalistic expose of the most yellow hue.

  4. Oh god, i know we’re not supposed to attack someone on the physique, but i can’t get over his face. You disqualified yourself elon !

    1. As someone who uses openSuse and Centos desktops as my two work workstations, I find this hilarious. Basically means what I’ve been thinking for a while… by the time it happens, IF it happens, nobody will care anymore and have already moved on to the next thing.

    2. You jest but it finally got good enough for me to switch about 18 months ago.

      Not easy or polished enough for the average Bob, but it does just work now to the extent any OS just works.

      I go back to commercial OSes only for software that doesn’t exist for Linux, and with so many electron or web apps, that number is dwindling.

  6. Not a fan of Crocs in general but there is one application for which they are absolutely perfect: backpacking. They weigh practically nothing, and are effective as water shoes. As camp shoes they are pretty warm if worn with wool socks but with no socks still comfortable and cool in warmer weather.

    1. I hear you can wear Crocs while climbing mountains in the winter. Just slap a pair of YakTrax on them!

      My problem with Crocs for backpacking is that they can’t be compressed. They’re big and hang off your pack. Nice to have for water crossings, though.

  7. Ol’ Full-Self-Dicking Elon might want to watch himself. He starts promising this shit over in China without tangible results and Xi may just strap his ass to the frunk of a Model 3 and route that thing from Shenzhen to Karamay.

  9. “Is this a deliberate tactic to achieve some manner of financial gain I’m too dumb to fully understand”

    This. He says it because it drives stock price.

  10.  I think we will achieve full self driving, depending on what level you call it, four or five, I think later this year.”

    People who know what they’re talking about don’t talk like this.

  11. Crocs are better than Birkenstocks, there I said it. I can get them wet, they have sport mode, better grip and don’t require 500 miles to ‘break them in’.
    I’ll take comfort & utility over what looks cool any day of the week.
    -former birkenstock fan

    3. Crocs made a loafer style where the only “croslin” foam (what makes a Croc a Croc) was the sole. The rest was canvas, and came in normal loafer colors. Good shoe to trivially slip on to go outside to get the mail, out to the garage, put the trash out, etc.

      Popular enough that other brands basically did the exact same thing, because it looks normal, but is tremendously comfortable for those quick tasks.

      Real test that they passed muster? I had a actual gals at the time (so 25-35 crowd) approve!

      —

      Like the doofy all foam ones with the holey domes? Yeah no. The loafery ones? Fine. They also make another one I guess that’s entirely antibacterial and popular with medical workers.

  13. “What I don’t understand is the motivation for these claims here.”

    It’s because he’s a complete narcissist. He knows by saying this he’ll get a shit load of praise and adoration from his detached from reality stans. It will help drive stock prices up and then he can do it all again next year. He will face zero consequences for anything he ever does so why not?

    1. Most professionals cannot diagnose without ever meeting the patient many times. You must be their god to diagnose without ever even seeing him in person. Or a person who ignores facts because otherwise you are pretty effing wrong most of the time.

      1. Thanks for the input bad take dave. I’ll file that under completely worthless feedback. Go back to your newsmax world big boy.

  14. He’s trying to keep Tesla stock price up, as it’s been slipping because he’s been having to sell chunks of shares so that he can pay Twitter’s hosting bills (because he screwed up Twitter’s revenue stream).

    1. A stone pumping cold blood through a human and keeping them alive? I’d call that a miracle.
      (I’m kidding, I don’t know the guy)

  16. Crocs are really nice for taking the dog out to poop, picking up the mail, taking the trash out, or any other reason where you simply can’t be bothered to bend over and tie a couple shoelaces. I have a few pairs strategically positioned at all of the egress points in my house.

    1. I too take offense to this unprovoked slander against Crocs! The material is really comfortable and like you say great for around the house.

      I even have a ratted pair of canvas ones for mowing in the yard, dog poop rinses right off of them with ease.

      These attack articles need to stop!

    2. My wife and I have a pair by the front door and one by the basement door. I wear them for yard work, walking the dog, etc. And you know what? I wear them in the ocean too. They’re great for it. I don’t have to experience the unspeakable terror of stepping on something pointy I can’t see.

      They look dumb, but who gives a fuck? I stopped caring about what randos think of me a long time ago. Crocs are a tool for a job. It’s that simple. I still have a bunch of fashion forward shoes for when I want to make a statement…but when I’m just pulling weeds or trying to get the dog to poop who cares?

  17. “Level 4 and 5 Full Self Driving were, the weapon employed by capitalist to quell the revolt of the specialized driver” – Elon “literally Karl Marx” Musk

    1. I was going to say something about the People’s Republic successfully achieving full Communism before Tesla has Level 5 self driving perfected

      1. Dunno about that ‘full communism’ thing.. China is 2nd after the US in the number of billionaires with about 3 times as many as #3 (India)

      2. Actually Biden will get the USA TO full Communism before then because his party has lemmings that the Chinese Party doesnt because they have seen partial communism

  18. Here’s my prediction:

    Zero Cybertrucks will be delivered to customers in 2023. Unlike the prediction in the article I’ve been right about this one every year for the last five.

      1. Yeah I don’t see how the Cybertruck is ever going to be delivered in any sort of form similar to it’s let’s get real, very fake reveal. Or at least I certainly hope it won’t be.

  19. Not that I want to defend him, but did he say “This is only speculation” to preface his comments?
    BTW, I’m with DT on this one too

    1. This is the same person (at least I think he’s a person, but his fans think he’s more) that sued short sellers because of their speculation.

      1. You do realize short selling allows improper control of the stock market? Elon could pick one stock at a time short sell it cause it to collapse ans buy it back making all kinds of profit and control of the company. He has never done that. Could have done that to twitter and bought it at 25%. But noone here knows economics, or investment, despite making stupid statements that prove it.

  20. All the adulation is from people who bought the check. It’s just good that they identified themselves, so I know who not to listen too. Don’t spend to join twitter, spend money on the arts and join The Autopian!

      1. Yea dont spend $8 that will teach him. Does anyone here actually realize the twitter had more members than there are people on this planet. Babies to invalids but yeah correcting those lies bad.

        2. Doesn’t seem like he’s “fixing” anything when most of my DM inbox is spam from bots now—far, far, FAR more than before—and I’m hearing more from spambots than friends because a lot of my friends have largely given up on it. The vibes are toxic, and the takes are dumb.

          Laying off most of the people who can fix Twitter’s bot problems (in addition to the instability of the platform and all the other woes) is a stroke of idiocy, not genius, and it’s coming to bite him in the bunghole now. That company is toxic waste to everyone in the industry now because of how former employees were treated on Elon’s way in. It’s the tech world’s G/O Media, and I’d argue that it’s somehow even less stable than HerbLand now. That’s a FEAT. No one who isn’t absolutely desperate for an H1-B is going to touch any openings that might come up, limiting the talent pool significantly when it comes to keeping the service up and running, much less addressing wider issues regarding inadequate moderation and the proliferation of spam.

          My time is better spent off of that increasingly irrelevant platform anyway. The bots can have it.

  21. Is this a deliberate tactic to achieve some manner of financial gain

    I think so, yes, in a roundabout way.

    Tesla’s technology is old. The industry knows it and he must know it, too (even if he won’t admit it). Competitors are steadily eating Tesla’s lunch re: specs and value.

    By saying “we’ve got new technology coming” he is hoping a) to keep people from buying cars that are available now and b) to encourage them to wait to buy whatever new thing he will be selling at some undetermined point in the future.

    The rabid stans will wait while more rational people will find something elsewhere that meets their needs.

    And to the other point: ten is a good round number, so we can ignore this… person… unless and until he does something genuinely worthy of coverage.

    1. I’m pretty sure Teslas technology isn’t old, and I’m pretty sure they’re not being beat on value by actually anybody, judging by how they currently make the cheapest electric cars you can buy and certainly not the worst quality.

    2. Well adding lies to this mix is wrong. Any idiot knows if you have 100% of the market no matter how successful if you get any competition you lose market share. Think before radio print had 100% of the market. So anything radio did took share away. But print and radio had 100% but then TV was invented. So shares were lost. Same now with internet anything they get eats into the competition market. I used to think this was common sense but even people in the industry dont realize this. And certainly not lemmings with no teaching.

  22. I’m with Torch and DT. I’m tired of this, but as an automotive news site it’s one of those things you begrudgingly have to report on.

    And damn, those tweets. They’re like the MAGA crowd but for a different kind of asshole. I guess some people just really need a hero to look up to.

    1. We’ve got to imagine Musk has some poor, susceptible to cult following intern to generate these sorts of tweets right? Somehow I hope so.

    3. Fragile, inadequate, bitter men who don’t want to improve themselves always need some BIG RICH MACHO GUY WHO NEVER HAS TO DEAL WITH CONSEQUENCES to look up to. It’s all projection. They think they can see themselves in the Musks and Trumps of the world and lust after a life where they can be bigoted jackasses to everyone around them 24/7/365 without consequences.

      Except they’ll never be that guy. But they prefer to embrace the delusion that one day they can be rather than look in the mirror and go “maybe I’m somewhat responsible for my life sucking ass” and doing something about it.

    4. I agree, though maybe these articles should be tweet sized and no more. “Musk predicts L4-5 by end of year for the 10th year in a row, will probably be wrong again.”

    5. I disagree. As a newspaper employee of 30 years back before the internet where everyone is a journalist you need to discover the story or introduce new facts or disprove the story. Simply reproducing the story is just plagiarism. Report something new, relevant, or incorrect or leave the story to the person who wrote it.

  23. I’m with DT on this one. Stop giving this guy the time of day with these stupid predictions.
    This was gold, though: “ a medical condition caused by an overabundance of Vitamin D in Musk’s colon, caused by people like these blowing so much sunshine up his ass”

      2. He’s gone from looking old for his age with a dramatically receding hairline in the early 2000s, to somehow looking younger and sharper as his wealth increased in the 2010s (gee I wonder how) to the uncanny valley nightmare/some creature wearing a human suit like the alien from Men In Black that we see today. It’s certainly been a ride!

          1. That would require having multiple, multiple procedures from the cheapest unlicensed backdoor plastic surgeons money can buy, which is either exactly Elon’s style, or not at all Elon’s style, I’m actually not sure how to read that one.

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