It turns out people do have their limits when every new car is, for some reason, a midsize crossover that costs $50,000 and $60,000. Enter two lone heroes, here to lead us out of the darkness and into the light: the Nissan Sentra and Hyundai Elantra, which were among Q2’s biggest sales growth winners as the car industry finally begins shaking off some of the supply chain nightmares it’s endured for years.
Congrats on making it to another Friday, Autopia. Also on today’s menu: Elon Musk’s warm welcome in France sparks jealousy in the heart of another car executive, even while he contends with “core socialist values” in his most important market; and Ford’s got some EV production woes while gas trucks pay the bills. Let’s hit it.
Stellantis’ Tavares Has Musk Envy But Begrudgingly Rolls Out More EVs
Of all the major automotive CEOs, Stellantis’ Carlos Tavares—who oversees a sweeping 14 brands across multiple major markets—is one of the bigger EV skeptics. I never got the sense there were complex energy and carbon-related reasons behind this, as has been the case with, say, Toyota, but more because he just didn’t want to bother with implementing this paradigm shift.
But that’s costing him on his own turf. When Elon Musk went to France in May, he got the red carpet treatment from President Emmanuel Macron, who begged him to set up production in that country. (Which, side note: I would love to see how Musk’s “I sleep on the factory floor and also everyone else should sleep on the floor” work ethos tracks with France’s “Yeah, we’re not coming to work at all in August” vibes.) Here’s Tavares’ reaction, according to Bloomberg, which reports he’s adamant about the roadblocks to EVs, small cars and everything else:
This seems to have irked Carlos Tavares, the CEO of Stellantis NV, France’s top carmaker. The Portuguese national has had a chillier relationship with Le Maire, clashing with him over plans to expand production in lower-cost countries. Tavares’s warnings about the influx of cheap Chinese cars, and concerns about Tesla rival BYD Co. also being warmly welcomed as it mulls European factories, apparently have fallen on deaf ears.
On Wednesday, Le Maire called for Tavares to show some “economic patriotism” and follow archrival Renault SA in producing a small electric car in France. The CEO hit back before day’s end, reiterating his view that carmakers without legacy combustion-engine assets are getting favorable treatment relative to companies that have made greater contributions to the wealth of western Europe.
“There is no reason why we should take an additional risk by making compact cars in a high-cost country,” Tavares told reporters during a conference call. “If the country is trying to attract newcomers with the investments of new plants, please ask them to take that risk.”
Now, Tavares has some legit gripes. This current move to electrification is rocky, expensive, difficult to figure out, will take longer than everybody’s saying and will generally be a giant pain in the ass if you’re the kind of dude who has to answer to shareholders and runs a huge global operation with different needs in different markets. But critics say: tough baguettes, bro.
The CEO is overseeing a sprawling empire of 14 brands and dozens of factories around the world, many of which will need to be retooled. He’s embarked on the overhaul by taking stringent cost-cutting measures at a time when governments are trying to protect jobs. Unions have griped that Stellantis isn’t investing enough in maintaining factories, citing clogged toilets and un-mowed grass.
Looming large behind the squabbles is the realization that the EV shift will require significantly fewer workers, and the concern that those “newcomers” will make matters all the more challenging.
[…] It’s a similar picture in France. Stellantis has pledged to make a dozen EVs in the country, but they’re mostly larger, higher-end models like the e-308 sedan and e-408 crossover. Le Maire wants Stellantis to expand production of the electric version of the compact Peugeot 208, one of Europe’s best-selling cars, in France to retain jobs and help counter inflation.
Sergio Marchionne (RIP)’s thesis was that car companies could survive this moment if they merged operations, consolidated and achieved scale together. Stellantis is more or less a reflection of that philosophy. But now it’s having trouble doing that and being all things to all people.
But Musk Has To Commit To Fair Play In China
Here’s the thing about Musk, though. He can happily tell California, the SEC, American regulators or even his landlords to eat shit and generally, he’ll skate. But the Chinese government? You don’t get to say no to those people. If you do, they’re happy to find you a nice gulag somewhere until you learn your lesson, or for the rest of your life, whichever comes first. Funny how that works.
In China right now, you basically have a ton of new EV brands springing up and competing viciously with each other. Margins are razor-thin. It’s part of why Chinese automakers want in on Europe and other places. But now, the government’s cracking down on a price war that companies like Tesla, BYD and maybe a couple of others could easily win, and in doing so would tank a bunch of smaller players.
And when the Chinese government asks you to do something, they don’t want you to half-ass it. From the Financial Times:
Elon Musk’s Tesla has joined Chinese automakers in pledging to enhance “core socialist values” and compete fairly in the country’s car market after Beijing directed the industry to rein in a months-long price war.
Folks, I’m wheezing. The idea of Mr. Destroy The Woke Mind Virus signing a “socialist values pledge” is giving me so much energy, I don’t need any more coffee this morning. I don’t even need lunch later. My body will draw life force directly from this moment and this moment alone, like Superman getting power from the Earth’s yellow sun. I’m not even sure I can die anymore.
More on that:
The joint letter, which came at the behest of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, appeared to signal a truce among the top EV makers in the world’s biggest car market.
Miao Changxing, a senior inspector at the ministry, said China’s car industry needed to avoid “reckless” price-cutting.
The letter — which uses language popular with Chinese president Xi Jinping and the ruling Communist party — also highlights how Tesla is navigating an increasingly fraught US-China business landscape and rising competitiveness in the world’s biggest EV market. Tesla was the only foreign carmaker to sign.
[…] The episode is the latest reminder of the tightrope many multinationals must walk amid increasing assertiveness from the Chinese government and hawkishness in their home markets. In recent years, accusations of obeisance to Beijing have hit countless companies from HSBC and Nike to the hotel group Marriott and car company Daimler.
You wanna play in the world’s biggest car market? You play by Xi Jinping’s rules. And don’t forget it.
Small Cars Win Big As Industry Roars To Comeback
The U.S. auto industry’s sales results for Q2 2023 (from what we’ve seen of the companies that report them) have been some of the most positive ones I’ve literally seen in a few years. Since the spring of 2020, for obvious reasons, sales results have been a fairly unreliable predictor of normal trends like production capacity, popularity, discounts—all the usual data we use to know how things are going.
This quarter, as the business really starts to rebound from the chip shortages and similar disruptions, was full of wins across the board. Some losses, too, which we’ll get to. But one notable thing I found from Automotive News was that two smaller cars are having a moment. Sentra sales were up 103% in just Q2 and the also-small Versa and Kicks are doing so well they’re calling in backup:
The Nissan division sold 227,824 vehicles in the second quarter, 32 percent more than a year earlier. Infiniti’s volume climbed 57 percent to 16,529 vehicles.
“There’s still some pent-up demand out there of consumers that waited,” [U.S. Nissan sales chief Judy Wheeler] told Automotive News on Monday. “Although, they are being more particular than they were two years ago.”
Nissan’s robust lineup of small, fuel-efficient models is lifting sales.
“The demand is large enough that it is outstripping our supply,” Wheeler said. “It also means that we need to continue to increase our Versa, Sentra, Kicks production now and into the near future.”
On the Hyundai side, the Elantra was up 60% in June and 58% overall in Q2. I haven’t driven the new Sentra yet but I’m a big fan of the current Elantra, especially in hybrid form, where the car’s such a champion I wrote a blog post in praise of it after I rented one for a road trip. It wasn’t even a press loaner. You’re welcome, Hyundai.
Cars like the Corolla and Civic tend to be perennially strong sellers, but it’s interesting to see this trend spread to other small cars too. Can you blame people? Everyone’s sick of the sky-high car prices.
Ford Wins The Usual Way While EV Sales Are Up And Down
“Ford Motor Co.’s U.S. sales increased 9.9 percent in the second quarter, as F-Series pickup volume jumped to the highest level in nearly three years,” Automotive News‘ Nick Bunkley writes. Folks, that’s how you know things are getting back to normal. In detail, that means Ford moved 212,516 F-Series trucks in Q2, up 34% from the same time last year and the best for any quarter since 2020.
But EV production and sales have had their ups and downs, literally. Ford’s got ambitious EV plans and the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning represent the tip of the spear for that, but both have had production and supply issues—as well as Ford trying to iron out the kinks. According to Electrek, the Lightning was up:
F-150 Lightning sales reached 4,466 in the second quarter, up 118.7% compared to just over 2K last year. Keep in mind, however, Ford began delivering the electric pickup last May, so doubling sales over the previous year is to be expected.
The automaker says it continues attracting new customers, with 50% of buyers coming from different brands.
That last stat is a very big deal. But the Mach-E was down much of Q2, only to spring to a last-minute comeback:
On the other hand, Ford’s first electric car, the Mustang Mach-E, saw sales fall 21.1% YOY. The decline comes after Mach-E sales were down 20% in the first three months of the year. Year-to-date (YTD) sales of the electric SUV are down 20.6%.
Andrew Frick, VP of sales distribution, said, “Improved Mustang Mach E inventory flow began to hit at the end of Q2 following the retooling of our plant earlier this year.”
Ford announced last year it would be retooling its Mexico plant, where the Mustang Mach-E is built, which would result in downtime at the facility. Frick said the move “helped Mustang Mach-E sales climb 110% in June.” Overall, Ford’s EV sales were up 35.5% in June, despite a slow start to the quarter.
Electrek’s takeaway is the same as mine here: the “legacy” automakers have spent a lot of time getting their supply chains in place for EVs and still are running into production challenges, while the ones like Tesla, Polestar and Rivian that have always been doing this could be in a more reliable position in the immediate term. If the supply chain’s indeed righting itself, the rest of this year is going to be very interesting on the Ford and General Motors EV front—and it may rest on their ability to produce these cars without issue more than anything else.
Your Turn
If you bought a new car right now, what would you be shopping for? A Mustang Mach-E has been discussed at our house, especially if the tax credits play in our favor somehow. But I think that’s a ways off for now.
If you bought a new car right now, what would you be shopping for?
I’m looking for the car that doesn’t exist. The Jeep Grand Cherokee L PHEV. I’m not sure why this powertrain is not available in the L configuration yet, but I have a feeling that a shit ton of sales are lost over this decision.
I can answer that; chassis engineering issue. The WL 2-row and 3-row actually have very significant differences.
But I can assure you, they aren’t losing any sales because of that. Not a one. They’re losing sales hand over fist and getting sub-5k mile trade-ins with 30%+ deprecation by the dozen because of what it is, though. Customers aren’t being told or don’t realize they HAVE to plug it in, and it’s not like a Prius. They’re realizing the fuel mileage isn’t any better than a 3.6. (No, seriously. It isn’t. Not even a little bit.)
And the fact is, launching the L 4xe doesn’t make any sense when they’re having to knock 15-20% off sticker to move a GC L that’s $10,000+ cheaper.
Sounds similar to the BMW X5 PHEV. Once you run out the battery, you get fuel economy akin to a regular BMW X5. I guess it is nice if you rarely drive more than 30 miles a day, but I’d like to get above average fuel economy everywhere I go. Like the Prius and RAV4 Prime deliver.
But… aren’t X5 owners going to be driving at most that 30-40 miles a day, in 90% of the cases ? Bring the kids to school and do shopping and what not. In those cases the car would be driving 100% electric. The seamless transition to normal gas guzzling mode is nice so you can drive anywhere you want without having to worry about range anxiety.
I do agree it would have been nicer to have say 50-60 miles of range ; that probably covers 99% of driving by normal private owners. Quiet, basically emission free, cheap.
New car? Never. I’m only up to 2010 in my car search parameters.
Realistically I don’t think I’d ever buy another new car even if money was no option BUT if I have to choose one to own it’s going to be a tough call between a Mach 1 and some sort of supercharged Challenger while they’re still existing.
So Elon is truly a paper tiger
“Mr. Destroy the Woke Mind Virus”?
Like two years ago, Elon Musk was known for being Electric Jesus, Hero of Progressives and Saviour of the Climate, Your Life, and the World.
Now he’s Mr. Destroy the Woke Mind Virus?
More than 2 years ago. I’ll admit I’m a “Progressive” and thought Musky was pretty cool, what with the EVs and the spaceships. He kept a good façade going for a while, but then the whole cave rescue debacle in 2018 exposed him. Then it all kept going downhill from there.
Times change. Two years ago Elon Musk wasn’t tweeting shit like “my pronouns are ‘prosecute/fauci’” (seriously, the richest man on the planet tweeted that, presumably with his own thumbs, at an opportunity cost of several hundred million of his time), so, yes, his public persona has changed.
I think he has been attacked so many times that he now went into a mode of ‘I don’t give a crap about y’all’ anymore so he tweets what he thinks, now, just like ex-presidents seem to do.
Yeah, almost like he was never being genuine in the first place.
But all kinds of folks ate it up anyways I guess. Feels pretty good right now to never have been one of the worshippers of Electric Jesus.
HA. Can’t lie, I’ve been giving some of those people shit myself.
As for a new car I would buy: practical options that I could actually afford: base model Maverick, Prius Prime, or Integra/Civic Si (with a manual); less practical options: Miata, Supra, Z, Mustang GT all with manuals. Of course I am seeing higher trim Mavericks marked up over $40 f*ing k, so I’ll continue to sit it out.
About the only thing that would get me to buy a car right now would be if one of mine got totaled.
If my wife’s forester got totaled-never really gelled with the Subaru. It embodies everything I dislike about modern SUVs-take a car, make it physically bigger without any improvements in interior space, fill the interior with easily damaged ‘soft touch’ materials, make few to no concessions towards actually improving versatility, and give it shit towing ability. So honestly I’d go smaller. She won’t want anything fun so I think a $25k Corolla hatchback would fulfill all duties with minimal loses and 25% better mpg.
My truck: I’d buy an older used truck. I’m working from home now so I’m not putting enough miles on it to justify spending $50k+ for new, the maverick is largely unavailable, and there’s no telling what gas prices will do in the next 10 years so it’s crazy to tie up much money anyways. Spend $10k on a decent gmt800 and pocket the rest for either a fun car or the commuter I’d need when I return to office (maybe civic si, maybe something electric).
I’ve been saying for years now, there’s no reason to pay crazy money for a new “work truck” while the GMT800 still exists.
$10k on a GMT800? So 150k miles, a torn seat and rust bubbling on the fenders and on the back of the cab?
Except this isn’t on FCAtlantis. They can be all things to all people at scale. If only it weren’t for this thing called late-stage capitalism and the race to the bottom.
People want their big SUVs and they want them bottom dollar and they want them made in civilized countries where people can actually make a living on the assembly line so they don’t feel marginally guilty about slave labor and they want them with 18 cupholders and they want to be able to afford them.
Well guess what? Late-stage capitalism guarantees that all of these things are fundamentally incompatible to the point of making it utterly impossible. You want your shit built in a country with a broken for-profit health care system? Then either the people on the line are condemned to permanent hand-to-mouth subsistence or the car costs too much for you to afford.
Excuse me, I need to hurt myself laughing.
Anybody who believes either side in this, is just too goddamn stupid to be allowed a driver’s license. Ever.
Melon’s going to keep to it for maybe 3 days. Tops. Depends if one of the state-blessed conglomerates starts trending on Twitter. The Chinese dictatorship’s going to stick to it until they’ve extracted every bit of IP they can, and throw Melon out on his ass. (They need his racist ass as much as they need pictures of Tiananmen Square as it appeared in 1989.)
For the umpteenth time: they aren’t accusations of obeisance. They’re statements of fact. You either toe the line with Winnie the Pooh, or you find your ass on the curb and the market flooded with counterfeits. They don’t get a choice. And even if you do toe the line, they’re still going to flood the market with counterfeits.
It’s a game where the only way to win, is not to play.
But because shareholders and late-stage capitalism, refusing to get screwed by the ‘largest market’ and ‘largest economy’ in the world is not an option.
This is also a very, very bright flashing neon warning sign about economic conditions.
The biggest jumps are exclusively in the cheapest cars on the market. The Elantra starts at just $22k including freight. The Nissan Sentra tops out at about $25k. The Versa is $16k. The Kicks maxes at $28k.
People do not buy Nissans and Hyundais – no matter how good – when they want a Ford F150 or a Chevy Suburban. Period. They buy those cars when there’s nothing else they can afford. And yes, there absolutely needs to be cars like that. But seeing a huge spike in that demand coupled to huge spikes in delinquencies and repos?
Let me put to you a non-hypothetical transaction; Joe Consumer is 90 days delinquent on his Ford Bronco. It is about to get repo’d, but he NEEDS a car. He has some amount of equity in this Bronco. All he can afford is maybe $25k. He can take said delinquent Bronco to the Nissan dealer. Who will gladly give him a wash deal on the Bronco, eliminating his delinquency and putting him in a Sentra that fits his real budget.
Is this what’s going on in bulk? No. But it’s an entirely real example of the kind of transactions that are going on right now. People are suddenly finding out their choice is food or Ford. So long as the used market is getting more than original sticker, deals like that give them an out. Even 90 days past, with a 96 month term, they have enough equity right now to get into something they can actually afford.
The problem is, this only works as long as people can pay over sticker and over FMV for used cars. Well guess what? Those happy times are quickly coming to an end. A+ credit (800+) is paying anywhere from 6 to 17% interest on used car loans now.
And thank you, Ford, for absolutely and unquestionably proving my argument a few weeks ago that the Mach-E was never a real car. It was just an egocentric status symbol. The Mach-E is no longer new and cool, it costs too much, and the people who actually liked it have found out they can never own it.
At this point? Fuel economy be damned. I want something utterly bulletproof to ride out the shitshow that’s coming (anyone else fucking exhausted of living in the same goddamn ‘unprecedented and unforeseeable’ things over and over and over?) and of tolerable size. Which means a Grand Cherokee 5.7 Hemi. They are consistently and continually proven to laugh off 200k+ miles with nary a fault.
But guess what? They quit fucking offering the 5.7 except as a special order. And FCAtlantis can fuck right off if they think that’s anything approaching an $82,000 car.
+1 re: the cheap cars, it’s not like people have been patiently waiting for the perfect time to buy a now ~3 year old design compact sedan. Don’t even need to extend it up to F150s like in your example, they may very well walk in hoping for a crossover and drive out in a sedan because the bank could get them the payment they wanted on that. Or they went looking at used car and get moved to a new car for similar reasons.
I’m probably an outlier in your scenario. I bought a cheap car (Soul) because it was the cheapest thing I could stomach. I didn’t want to buy and had been planning on waiting until hybrid Mavericks were more available, which as of yesterday is a whole other issue. My plan is to keep the car for a few years and then sell it as the used market has been strong. At that point hopefully there will be something available that I actually want to buy. Will my plan work out? Only the Shadow knows.
+1 for the Shadow reference.
I think you are mostly correct regarding why cheap cars are suddenly booming. Many of us have been awaiting this, especially with so many manufacturers abandoning the segment.
Personally I prefer cheap and small cars, but that’s probably why I am also very unlikely to ever buy a new car again.
I’m pretty heavy into VAG now, and I’m already hunting for used RS7’s.If you’re talking new new, then never. I leased a car once and hated it. I will most likely never purchase another brand new vehicle unless I hit lotto.
Used RS7s? You’re a brave individual
So, I’m my family and friend group’s cut-rate amateur mechanic. My brother bought a used RS7 a few years ago. I made sure to inform him, in no uncertain terms, that I wouldn’t touch the car beyond routine oil changes. That engine bay is terrifying, much less all the hilariously overcomplicated electronics sitting behind the dash.
To be clear, RS7s are sweet and you should buy one. Just be ready to pay about 10x what you expect for any maintenance item. Hello $1k alignment jobs! No, I’m not kidding, that’s a real thing for RS7s.
I’ve done all the MX on my Q7 and S5, and I actually really enjoy it. As complicated as they are, they come apart and go back together in a way that makes sense. So I will not be getting any bills aside from the usual stuff like alignments or factory programming of a module with ODIS or whatever. Believe me, I would not be looking at (or currently owning two) used Audi’s if I couldn’t do the diag/work myself. I was scared shitless of touching the S5 when I got it. German engineering, all kinds of complicated stuff all over, special computers etc. The more I worked on it, the more I realized it’s not that scary and most of it is actually pretty easy. $30 on erWin and I now own every factory manual for both cars in PDF form. It’s now stage 2 and I’m getting ready to do a full trans and diff service, and the Q7 is stage 1.
You must have a lot of time on your hands? Between my family and two jobs, I don’t have real time to work on cars. It’s the chief reason I sold my ’68 Charger.
Uh, yeah, about that?
Maybe buy a new car with a warranty now. And only consider the RS7 if you hit the lotto.
I charge actual @ $225/hr regardless of make or model for electrical and HP DI side diag. Your first bill is guaranteed to be well into ‘cashier’s check only’ territory.
There is only one new car for sale in the US that I would even consider purchasing and that’s the new Prius hybrid. But, I don’t want a Prius. What I want is a truly compact truck or ute, neither of which are available here new. (No, the Maverick and Santa Cruz are not compact trucks.) I’m reduced to buying a very old used model or moving to Mexico, Central or South America, or possibly Europe to find what I want. I’d just rather not buy anything at all given those choices.
Sounds like you are in California? I’d recommend a Transit Connect or equal; closest thing you can get here to a compact truck and with certain advantages over a pick-up.
Next car. Really depends what breaks down next. I have the fun car so can take off the table.
I would go for a practical EV/Hybrid or some sort. Commute, Dump runs, shopping. If the EVs/Infrastructure are ready, a long haul option.
I’d be looking for a Ute like a Maverick or Santa Cruz, but at least a PHEV if not a full EV. Would like to consolidate my ev hatchback and truck into 1 thing, I don’t need to tow, just bring stuff to the dump, get dirt and stuff from Lowes or what not.
If I had to buy a new car right now what would I be shopping for?
A Fiat 500e. ICE engines nowadays are too complicated both mechanically and electronically, if I get rid of the engine and replace it with a motor at least I can get rid of the mechanically complicated bit.
That being said I’d rather use human power to get around than buy a new car.
LOL.
Son, you ain’t seen shit when it comes to complicated electrical systems. BEVs are ten times worse, and a hundred times more dependent on software. Software which is mostly written by people who aren’t even qualified to write a PHP-based website. On top of spaghetti written by people who think MOV and JMP are interchangeable.
Trust me, I’ve seen plenty, so much so I’m going to pure mechanical diesels. I don’t understand the spicy magic that is electricity, but mechanical things I seem to have a knack for.
I’ve dealt with way too many electrical gremlins in my relatively short life.
As said above
Cars run on microcontrollers and FPGAs, which take a very different mindset and a rarer experience base. If anyone’s messing things up, it’s the PHP-based web devs who haven’t so much as touched assembly or Verilog in the last decade because they thought those were “too unsophisticated.”
Economy: *begins struggling with rampant inflation*
American OEMs: *eliminate most compact models, take comfortable seat on own dick*
Economy: *faces steep interest rate hikes, quickly spiking borrowing costs*
American OEMs: *double down on the most massive, opulent models in their range. Adjust to ensure the shaft is nice and compressed*
Economy: *sees immediate contraction in consumer spending as student debt payment pause expires*
American OEMs: *start offering factory lifts on $60k luxury trucks. Shift around to ensure dick is still fully sat-upon*
Economy: *sees massive, pent-up, and above all deeply predictable demand for smaller, energy-efficient transportation*
American OEMs in about two years, with a lineup whose only competitive products are giant body-on-frame trucks and overpriced EV crossovers: “OH GOD WHY DOES MY DICK HURT HELP”
Wishful thinking at its finest. Nothing short of a severe and prolonged oil price spike has ever in the last 100 years caused this in the US. There is no pent-up demand for small cars, and never has been. Most people buy them out of necessity only, other than a few weirdos. Electrification makes the running costs of larger vehicles even less of a concern, so there will be even fewer people demanding small vehicles. The future of transportation in this country looks a lot more like the Hummer EV than a mass return to compact cars.
Hey now I always buy small cars….oh wait. I’m intensely weird. Carry on!
Yeah, I’ve got you on an 8 out of 10 on the Torchinsky weird scale. There might be one or two sevens but most of us are four or less.
This is more of a product of Torch’s weirdness than a lack of weirdness in general.
I mean, smaller pickups very obviously had pent-up demand, demonstrated by the sales success that the Ranger was right out of the gate, and that the Maverick really really has been.
I admit the Maverick is the biggest challenge to my theory, but my counter is that there really was nothing like it for many years (whereas you can still buy small cars now, even though no one does) and that fullsized pickups, unlike larger cars and CUVs, still don’t offer the fuel economy to match.
A 40 MPG Maverick vs an 18-20 MPG F150 is a real choice, a 40 MPG Mirage vs a 40 MPG Camry hybrid is less of one.
Yeah, the choice between a 40mpg Mirage and a 170k mile Camry with unknown maintenance.
Honestly it’s more like a 50/50 split.
50% pent-up demand for a small reasonable pickup a la the old Ranger; a basic transportation machine that also hauls stuff. 50% can’t get/can’t afford an F150 or a Ranger but can’t stand to not be seen in a ‘truck.’
I don’t know, wouldn’t a person like that just find a used full size that fit their budget to satisfy that need?
I have an ’04 Odyssey that handles all of my truck needs, hauling stuff to the dump, getting building supplies (just overloaded it a couple of weeks ago for a driveway concrete job) and moving stuff around. No towing needs so I guess I don’t quite get where that fits into the equation.
Always appreciate the level-headed commentary, V10omous. I agree that people buy frugal cars because of need, not want. My argument is that the market has actively worked to not fill that need, so those customers are instead buying used. That’s not sustainable.
The average American doesn’t have enough savings to cover their health insurance deductable; a new car’s warranty is a very real value proposition.
I partially agree that electrification blunts the ownership cost of large vehicles. For EVs, that cost is more a mix of time and money, rather than just money. A larger EV will still be more expensive to buy and (marginally) more expensive to run, but the real pain point will be at fast chargers. Sure, a Hummer has enough batteries crammed in for decent range, but enjoy your hour-long “fast charging” sessions if you stray too far from home.
I mean, there are still multiple options available at the low end. Maybe not everyone wants a Mirage, but most mainstream automakers still offer at least one compact & affordable option. Yes, more of them are CUV shaped than before, but they exist. There might be more options on the high end than ever before, and automakers might have prioritized their luxury offerings during supply shortages, but I don’t understand the argument that small cheap cars are being actively suppressed.
I also think with cars lasting longer than ever that used cars filling the low end of the market isn’t quite the risk it would have been a couple decades ago.
Totally agree with you on the EV costs.
Judging by the prices of used Toyota Yarises I am not the only weirdo out there.
Ditto Honda Fits.
There is, and always will be, a demand for smaller cars. Look at the consistently solid sales of the Corolla and Civic, and sales increases for the Elantra and Sentra. In the CUV space, the compact ones are a major growth area. There isn’t demand for the category under that, but the compact class is a reliable performer whether in car or crossover form (unless you, say, kill all goodwill with a terrible transmission like what Ford did, for example).
And going increasingly massive isn’t going to be the market trend. I once saw a theory that Americans all generally buy cars that are about the size of a ’49 Ford, though right now most of the top 10 is slightly smaller. Trucks have replaced the “full size” sedans of yore but like the “Intermediates” of the ’60s the market really likes ’49 Ford sized vehicles and that’s always going to be the primary non-truck seller, and the market usually corrects to make that size mainstream.
I don’t dispute the idea that there will always be some demand for compact cars, I dispute the ideas that there is (or will be) a massive pent-up demand for them not currently being met, that there is some conspiracy to limit their availability, and that automakers will somehow financially regret offering more luxury models alongside their existing compacts.
Time will tell I guess whether EVs will make even larger vehicles desirable, once they reach enough of a saturation point that gas crises are no longer really a thing. I would not bet against Americans defaulting toward the largest vehicles they can afford though.
Small cars had big gains, but some larger more expensive vehicles (that aren’t newer designs or the hot new thing) enjoyed hearty increases as well – YTD Odyssey sales up 90%, Carnival sales up 74%, Expedition up 72%, Traverse up 55%, Yukon up 88%, to cherry pick a few that aren’t the newest designs or hot ticket items.
Hah, Elon would recite the Shahada if it meant he could sell a bunch of cars in KSA and Dubai. Also kinda funny to think that China can get more credit for following the rule of law than the US or EU, but that’s just billionaire bias in action.
New car? No dice. We would be shopping for a hybrid or EV equivalent for one of our elderly gassers, and that simply does not exist in the US.
I would be looking for a plug in hybrid van or midsize truck. I think the only thing close is the Pacifica, which is A: a Stelantis product (never again), and B: not utilitarian enough.
Yeah, I have a real hard time dropping $55k on a Chrysler with the added complexity of a PHEV system.
Of course Musk is down with Chinese “socialism”…China isn’t socialist. Or communist. China is just ultra streamlined, totalitarian crony capitalism with a red bow on top to distract people. Far right blowhards like Musk and Trumpian Republicans actually want what China has. The entire country concentrates wealth at the very top, dissent of any kind is crushed with an iron fist, you’re free to absolutely abuse workers, no one cares about climate change, and the government is in control of absolutely everything. They don’t want to admit it, because OOOOOOO SPOOKY COMMUNISM! IT’S THE WORST! But deep down all these fascist pricks look at China lustfully, let’s be real here.
Anyway the Elantra is an attractive car in its normal trims. It stands out compared to the sea of Accords, Camrys, greyscale crossover blobs, etc…it’s also cheap and everyone can whine about how bad Hyundai and Kia are all they want but the statistics suggest their cars are currently just as reliable as pretty much anyone other than Toyota or Honda at this stage…not to mention the warranty and maintenance coverage make ownership way less stressful. And…guess what? People want cheap cars! And they’ll happily buy sedans! It’s almost like the SUV craze is driven by greedy manufacturers trying to sell people more car than they need. No friggin way!
I will continue to give Hyundai and Kia credit for churning out interesting regular cars. Don’t get me wrong-they definitely miss the mark sometimes, but at least they’re trying new things…and it’s clearly paying off for them. I love my Kona N and loved how the Elantra N drove even more, I just couldn’t get past the horrid styling or the wife’s “if you’re buying a new car you don’t need it needs to be a hatchback” ultimatum.
Which brings me to the question-if I were to go shopping today for me I would go directly to Acura. I would not pass go or collect $200. After being extremely skeptical of it (my comments on this site are still out there obviously) the initial wave of reviews has me sold on the Integra Type S. It’s the perfect car for a lot of people.
It’s the ultimate mature, luxury hot hatch. You won’t feel embarrassed parking it at work. It’ll fit right in in the school pickup line. You can road trip comfortably in it. It won’t draw a bunch of negative attention from idiots trying to street race. It’ll fit 4 adults and their stuff no problem and will fit kids and their’s even better. It’ll handle a track day or the occasional backroad blast that’s realistically the most fun 99% of us have with our cars. It gets decent gas mileage and will run forever with nothing but routine maintenance.
And it’s right at the average price of a new car. I do wish there was a decent auto option since my wife can’t drive stick and I sit in traffic constantly, but for a car that special I’ll suck it up. While luxury/mature hot hatches are a thing overseas (how I lust for an RS3 hatch) other than the Golf R they don’t really exist here…and that car is subtle to a fault, coupled with a tech hellworld interior, and is currently selling for way over MSRP.
I’m in love…but I bought my N a little over a year ago and have absolutely no reason to switch, not to mention I’m sure getting one right now is a nightmare anyway. But in a few years? Oh yeah. It’ll happen.
If someone walks in to a showroom and buys a RAV4 instead of a Camry for the same price are they really buying much more car than they need? Or a Kona instead of an Elantra, a Kicks instead of a Versa, etc etc. They provide A-to-B transportation all about the same.
People here say that sort of thing and yeah, the manufacturers are greedy, but to the end consumer I think most don’t care about the type of vehicle. Things like credit or trade/negative equity and the like are more likely to be factors.
It’s not like the other model lines didn’t enjoy big increases too. YTD Odyssey sales are up 90% and Kia Carnival sales are up 74% but they ain’t cheap and it’s not likely a sign of minivan resurgence either.
“no one cares about climate change”
Never minding China is the world’s leader in hydroelectricity, wind and solar power:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-widens-renewable-energy-supply-lead-with-wind-power-push-2023-03-01/
And adding more nuclear plants:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2021/04/23/china-will-lead-the-world-in-nuclear-energy-along-with-all-other-energy-sources-sooner-than-you-think/?sh=60439205778c
They’re also one of the only countries actively adding new coal plants, and are primarily powered by coal
China needs energy. China needs energy. (Said it 2x because its just that true). Whether they get it with environmental concerns in mind is not even #1 or even #2 on the list.
If there is a river involved, they are smart enough to know that they can leverage hydro rather than build a coal fired plant next to the river. If it is easier to build a nuclear plant in an area where it isn’t a coal/oil source or expensive to transport those fuels, they will go nuke.
Keep in mind that China is huge. So for them to say they have more X energy plants, there aren’t too many world players that can compete at that geographical scale. Russia maybe, but they are too busy trying to expand their country rather than improving what they have. The US is too wrapped in red tape to build important stuff. Brazil is too poor/corrupt to build at that scale.
You nailed the magats perfectly. They are so desperate for a dictatorship/king they can’t stand it. The ability to ship off and/or kill anyone that disagrees with them is all they want. They hate democracy and want it to die as soon as possible.
I’m looking only on the surface right now, and I know I’m basically looking for a unicorn.
I’m looking for an electric motorcycle:
If I were to buy a vehicle right now, it would be that.
Anyone who expects Musk to be a straight shooter is fooling themselves. He’ll say whatever is necessary to advance his personal goals- with no limit whatsoever.
And his goals are ? To become the richest man in the world ?
Hmmmm
If I was going to buy a new car right now, it would be a 2023 Prius Prime. Unfortunately, Toyota’s inability to actually produce Prime vehicles (RAV-4 or Prius) means good luck trying to find one, much less in a trim or color to meet your needs/budget.
Yeah, I’d love to get either of the Primes, but I’m not dealing with the hassle, markups, and inability to get the one I want.
Top of my list, too. I would never have bought an earlier Prius, but my wife loved hers. Now that it’s apparently fun to drive, I’ll take a second look.
And just wait till you get to the dealer experience.
No joke: all three Toyota dealerships around me make the “no test drives without a credit check” Kia dealership look downright appealing. One of them was calling non-stop to harass me about lease turn-in. They wanted to buy it for $15k sight unseen, on a $16k buyout, for the same car they have on their lot at $25k – but mine has 1/3rd the miles.
I did not moderate my language. Especially since they were the first to insist that extremely loud rattle and squeak from the brake pedal assembly and door hinge is ‘normal.’
>If you bought a new car right now, what would you be shopping for?
I’m shopping right now and I know I want a hatchback/wagon but I’m stuck between the Crosstrek Wilderness Edition and the 2024 Civic.
The Wilderness doesn’t have a launch date and I made the horrific mistake of emailing the Subie dealership we bought my wife’s from, so now I get daily emails from their AI asking why the phone number I put in the email is disconnected. The Civic I can go pick up today and is C&D’s top choice for its class and has better safety ratings, but it doesn’t have the “ruggedness” of the Crosstrek.
Idk, probably won’t buy until the end of the year anyway. Lots of time to talk myself in and out of each choice.
Which is exactly why you want a disconnected number for these things. Every time I’ve been to a dealer, they ask for a phone number and assure me that this dealership won’t be constantly contacting me.
I’ve contacted three Toyota and two Subaru dealerships in my area (Maryland) looking at Corolla Cross and Crosstrek for my wife and after asking them all to stop trying to contact me in a polite fashion they did. I’m still in contact with whichever random Toyota sales rep first responded to the specific Cross I mostly want (not 100% sure but close) they still may have the ability to make me walk away.
A last hurrah of pure combustion before the sun sets forever.
The very best ones are impossible to find, marked up when they are out there, and ultimately out of reach, but I hold out a bit of hope.
What are you considering? I know you’ve mentioned the new Z06 and CT5 V BW. Those would certainly be glorious last ICE hurrahs.
Money no object, it would be a 992 GT3. That was a lot more palatable when it was announced at $160K, since I’d order a low optioned car anyways. Now the MSRP is $183K, the markups are at least $100K beyond that, and every allocation is still sold immediately. No chance.
Money some object, it would be a C8 Z06. Again, when the rumored MSRP was $85-90K, this seemed very doable. Even at the $115K or whatever it is now, it’s relatively reasonable. They are impossible to find now for less than $150-175K, and every wait list I’m on is multiple years long.
It feels weird to say I’m settling for a CT5 BW, but that really is what I think will happen. I was offered an MSRP allocation a couple weeks ago but I actually turned it down because I want the ridiculous yellow color and that is late availability. Either way it seems like these are relatively attainable and I’ll end up ordering one this year at some point. It’s not that it’s a bad car or that I’ll regret owning one, I just wonder if already owning an SS sedan will make it seem less special.
I’ve considered a Bronco Raptor or F150 Raptor R as well, but those are impossible to find near sticker too. What complicates all this is I have no idea how much longer any of these will be produced. If I knew with certainty they would all be running another 5 years, I would attempt to wait out this insane market. But I just worry that emissions standards and/or product lifecycles won’t allow for that and I’m starting to get a little FOMO.
I am too, in a big way. My initial thought was that my Kona N would make for a good last gas hurrah, and while it certainly has, it’s still a 4 cylinder. A characterful one for sure, but that week with a drop top Camaro SS a year ago has me hyper fixated on V8s to a degree. There really is nothing quite like a V8 at wide open throttle.
The 992 GT3 is a sweet car but unfortunately you really need to be the richest of the rich to afford special Porsches…and the allocation/markup situation seems to have really ruined the GT3 and Cayman GT4 RS. The Z06 seems spectacular…and I wouldn’t be surprised if values eventually float back to MSRP. As special as it is, there are other special C8s in the pipeline.
The E Ray certainly seems interesting (it wouldn’t be my pick over a Z06, but it is unique) and eventually there will probably be a ZR1 variant that adds a supercharger to the Z06. The good thing about Corvettes is they make a lot of them. While you probably won’t be able to get a new Z06 anytime soon, you’ll definitely have chances to circle back.
The Blackwings are spectacular and are definitely on my radar as well. The CT5 is comfortably out of my price range but I could definitely afford a lower spec CT4 V BW if I really wanted to. They get out of hand quickly with all the carbon fiber options and such but a barebones manual one can be had in the mid 60s if you’re patient.
As I said above, the Integra Type S is likely my next target because it’s a pretty perfect blend of features at a price tag I could comfortably afford…but the IS500 lives in my head rent free. I just don’t know if I’ll ever be able to comfortably afford one. Most of the ones that are out there are pretty loaded and once that car is in M3 range it’s a much harder sell. Plus the values are never going to drop. It’s a JDM car with a V8, and people are under the impression it’s the last V8 Toyota period.
Sadly I think it’s going to remain unobtainable….but who knows. I’m also tempted by a used LC500 but the practicality sacrifices it would require will be a tough pill for my wife to swallow.
This is my great hope. Every other Z06 has eventually been available below MSRP, in some cases well below. If I knew they were going to be making it for several more years, I’d have high confidence the C8 would be like that as well.
Great looking car, and I’d much rather have one than an M3 or CT4 BW
I just worry that it’s a lot of money for the performance you’re getting. It’s a pure cruiser. For my needs that’s mostly fine (I have some secret country roads where I drive at 10/10 every couple of months but that’s about the extent of my performance driving), but $70,000 is a lot of money for a car that hits 60 in the mid/low 4s, has an absolute dinosaur of an automatic transmission, and needs a little aftermarket love to wake up.
I like my cars to have a little edge. It makes them a more emotional experience and as counterintuitive as it sounds I think it keeps me honest about my own skill. I’m at much more of a risk to get myself into trouble with cars that make it effortless to drive in an antisocial manner than cars I need to learn how to drive well/demand respect.
I’m not sure if I’ll get that sort of thing with the IS and it’s one of the reasons I find the BWs so appealing. Powerful American cars demand respect from their drivers. Either way I’m sure I’ll look at everything I mentioned sooner or later.
That’s a great post, but let’s not forget your earlier statement:
It’s true! The fact that there isn’t an LT1 in the CT4V BW remains egregious
I’m tempted to do this. Screw the utility, screw the fuel economy, screw the reliability…you’re never going to be able to get a V8 ICE powered sports car ever again, so get one.
But ultimately I don’t think my brain is wired to allow me to do that.
If it helps your brain, I haven’t heard poor reliability to be a feature of current V8 sports/muscle cars.
NA V8s just work, man. There’s a reason why they’ve been the defacto truck powertrain for decades. But I’m certainly not telling you anything you didn’t already know.
‘The very best ones are impossible to find’
I don’t know where you’re shopping but I can still find PT Cruisers under 4k all day.
I’ve been mostly looking at the Maverick or an electric. The upcoming Tacoma looks pretty interesting, but I don’t think I need to go that large (I’d like to downsize my fleet and my pickup in one fell swoop, and today’s midsize pickups aren’t a lot smaller than my full-size).
The ID.Buzz looks cool, but I don’t think I’ll be willing to pay the money.
And I’m still waiting to hear back from the Jeep dealer regarding the too-good-to-be-true lease deal on the Wrangler 4xe. I don’t think they get a lot of people asking about the residual value before the test drive and I’m not going in for their pitch without sorting that out first.
Our next car will be a van of some sort for my wife’s plant shop. I’d love to get a lightly used Transit Connect, but finding one that isn’t beaten to hell is hard around here. After that, I think I’m just going to fix up my 2014 Mazda3 (lots of cosmetic damage from city living) and keep it until I can make an EV work for me.
My companies Transit Connect is kind of a pile of garbage. It recently shat out it’s catalytic converter and it takes something like an hour tech time to replace the battery.
hated the TCs at the last job. just deeply value engineered shitheaps.
We need more cars that are affordable. That is where the Chinese will have the biggest impact here. If BYD or Geely can sell a brand new car here for under 10k, they will conquer