When the average car still on American roads today left the dealership, you couldn’t go very far without hearing “Rolling in the Deep” playing on someone’s stereo. I’m not saying that song’s not a banger—it is, certifiably—but it’s been a while since it was a fresh jam. But the cars from that time still keep putting in the work today; a new study shows Americans have hit a record average high with vehicle ownership. Can you blame us?
We have that trend for today’s morning roundup, plus more news about VinFast and where Alfa Romeo is hinging its comeback plans. Happy Monday; let’s get started.
The Cars Are Getting Old
If you drive a Ford F-150, Toyota Camry, Chevy Silverado or Nissan Altima from 2010 or 2011, congratulations: you’re basically driving the average car on American roads today. S&P Global Mobility released another study that shows how old today’s cars are, and according to them, it’s 12.5 years — up from 12.2 years in 2022.
Here’s a handy chart from those folks that shows just how much cars on the road have aged in the past two decades:
You can see where things started to level off in the years after the Great Recession and the auto industry’s (in some cases, state-funded) recovery, wherein car buyers found relief from pent-up demand. But now people are keeping their cars on the road longer than ever; especially passenger cars, which are spending a whopping 13.6 years in service, on average.
Is anyone surprised by this? Modern cars are safer, faster, more reliable, better built and more efficient than at any other point in history. Sure, some brands and vehicle types hold their long-term quality better than others and there are still a few maintenance disasters out there. But on the whole, if you buy a car today (or in 2010, apparently) and take care of it, you can keep it running for a very long time.
Couple those technology improvements with the fact that new cars are staggeringly expensive, a trend we’ve been covering extensively here at The Autopian. Rising interest rates, longest-ever loan terms, an uncertain economy ahead, a market-wide shift to trucks and SUVs and still-pricey electric vehicles all mean more and more people are saying “Yeah, this is fine for now” when they think about their aging cars. When the average new car price is trending toward $50,000, that old Altima seems quite appealing.
As Axios notes today, even if we’re on the eve of what appears to be an eventually all-electric new car market—something I too believe, with emphasis on “eventually”—this data proves gasoline cars aren’t going anywhere for a while. And I don’t even mean new cars. I mean the ones on the road now. Those vehicles will all be creating emissions for decades to come, which is worrisome from a climate perspective.
Then again, what the hell are people supposed to do, right? Automakers are kind of banking on super-high transaction prices to help bankroll the EV transition, but not every American driver wants to—or even can—help them pay that tab. New cars have gotten so outrageously expensive that many of us have no choice but to keep our older vehicles running until they simply cannot anymore.
VinFast Tries For A VinSPAC
In the decade I’ve been covering the auto industry, I honestly can’t remember a new car launch as universally despised by reviewers as the VinFast VF8. Our take was “Just don’t;” others said “Simply Unacceptable,” “Return To Sender,” or simply “Yikes.” It’s like that one review of a Spinal Tap album that was just “shit sandwich.” This was the kind of revilement that happened to cars like the Yugo, way back in the day.
To be fair, a VinFast VF8 is a better car than a Yugo is. (I think.) But as we see with the above data, today’s cars have gotten much better than they were in decades past. Even if VinFast put in a noble effort as a brand new car from a new company and a country relatively new to automating, it’s simply not enough to cut it right now. And I’m not sure if American buyers will give it the patience they once gave newcomers like Volkswagen, Toyota and Hyundai, especially since those brands used to represent a super-cheap value proposition; the $50,000 VF8 certainly does not.
(Side note: What if this car had been like, $24,000? I think that would’ve changed a lot of people’s tunes.)
But capitalism gonna capitalism. And so VinFast is now a publicly traded company in the U.S., doing so via a SPAC, or special purpose acquisition company. (This piece I ran at The Drive two years ago explains how they work.) SPACs had a big moment in 2020 and 2021, but the vast majority of them fizzled out hard and they’ve since become something of a joke on Wall Street.
Bloomberg’s here to explain why this SPAC is also a dicey one, which is fitting for VinFast:
The purported $27 billion valuation (which includes debt) would make it the third-largest such transaction in history.
However, the merger of VinFast Auto Pte. Ltd. with Hong Kong-based Black Spade Acquisition Co. announced Friday feels more like an act of desperation than a revival of a maligned asset class. The transaction won’t raise much money and the purported valuation looks as rocky as VinFast’s US vehicles.
[…] VinFast filed for a regular US initial public offering in December, but last week announced it would go public via the SPAC route, without explaining its change of heart. Of course it’s hard for anyone to do an IPO at the moment, but the company’s recent news hasn’t been encouraging: Its initial US vehicle deliveries were delayed, it cut part of its US workforce and it tapped Vuong and related entities for $2.5 billion.
It’s normal to be skeptical of the long-term prospects of EV startups. Tesla’s the standard bearer but it took the vast majority of its 20 years in existence to get to a stable, profitable stage. But even troubled companies like Lucid and Rivian have promising, cutting-edge products; based on everything so far we cannot say the same about VinFast.
What it does have is Vietnamese billionaire founder Pham Nhat Vuong, but even he’s not going to waste his fortune on cars forever if they don’t pan out.
The Tonale To Be A Shot In The Arm For Alfa Romeo
Alfa Romeo’s another one of those “What the hell happened?” brands. A decade ago, it announced aggressive product plans with an Italian BMW-esque full lineup and hinged its hopes on a big relaunch in America. None of that stuff panned out. The Giulia sedan got a lot of early hype, especially in Quadrifoglio form, but it came out just in time for everyone to pivot to buying SUVs. The Stelvio’s launch took too long to happen, and the 4C was never meant to be a volume seller. After years of hype in the 2010s, it all just fizzled out. Fiat Chrysler’s transformation into Stellantis probably didn’t help much either.
So now, all hopes ride on the Tonale: a compact crossover with an un-Alfa-like plug-in hybrid 1.3-liter turbo four and a starting price around $45,000. I haven’t driven one yet but apparently, it’s fine.
What you can expect is a big marketing blitz in America, according to Automotive News:
[…] The next focuses on enticing new customers. Alfa Romeo formulated a profile of potential buyers that it dubs “Sydney.” Sydney is a 35-year-old man or woman, making around $135,000 per year, unmarried but in a committed relationship, and living in a thriving metro area. This person has a passion for the arts, culture and the health of the planet, Goldstein said.
Alfa’s mostly hoping for younger, professional women buyers on this one, but even it admits it’s playing in an unfamiliar space with a compact hybrid crossover. My advice to Alfa is to make sure they have the reliability dialed in this time. That didn’t help the Guilia and Stelvio’s prospects at all a few years ago.
Can Tesla Hit Reset On Car Manufacturing?
The next big thing to watch out of Tesla may not be new car models (though I maintain it desperately needs those too) but how cars are made entirely. All eyes are on the “unboxed” manufacturing process Elon Musk announced at the Phase 3 event earlier this year, reports Reuters. It basically means breaking the car up into subassemblies and then putting them together down the line, which is said to be key to Tesla’s sub-Model 3 pricing goals. (I found a good explainer here and I hope we’ll dive more into this later.)
Here’s Reuters on why this could be a big deal, potentially:
Officials said the unboxed process could cut production costs in half and reduce the factory footprint by 40%. The aim, said the company, is to “build more vehicles at lower cost.”
The assemblage of new techniques will not be fully tested until the system is installed in late 2024 at Tesla’s new $5 billion plant in Monterrey, Mexico, where the company plans to build a new generation of sub-$30,000 EVs.
[…] Martin French, managing director at consulting firm Berylls which focuses on the industry’s rapid shift to electric and smart mobility, wondered if Tesla’s move might supplant decades-old lean manufacturing methods pioneered by industry kingpin Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T).
“I got the feeling when I watched the Tesla (presentation) that the Toyota Production System handbook has just been thrown up in the air and machine-gunned down,” French said.
German researcher Jan-Philipp Büchler of the Free University of Dortmund, believes Tesla’s new process is “revolutionary,” adding: “This is much more than modular production … It’s eliminating steps that were standard, creating new patterns of working, increasing speed, reducing complexity.”
It could change how cars are made globally. But other experts say it depends on exact synchronization, which Toyota mastered with its Just In Time system, and it may be ill-suited to making different sizes and types of cars instead of just one.
Your Turn
What’s the longest you’ve ever kept a car you’ve owned? My first car was a Toyota Corolla (not exciting, but it got the job done, no questions asked) and I had it for eight years before trading it for a Subaru WRX because I was young and got a real job and wanted to go fast.
My current daily driver is a 2018 Mazda 3 hatchback. I just put 50,000 miles on it and it’s in stellar shape. It’s also completely paid off. I am not getting rid of that anytime soon, even if my next “new” car is an EV or a PHEV. Count my Mazda in that S&P Global study in about 10 years.
People can’t afford new cars anymore, stuck buying used. And thanks to gouging, the cheaper new cars don’t exist anymore 🙁
Well, I owned a 1966 Plymouth Sport Fury for over 20 years, but it was only on the road for about 2.5 of those. Ended up in project car hell where I had time but no money to progress, or money but no time. Sold it before I moved two states away. Glad to say the new owners got it back on the road an are enjoying it. I also owned a 2003 Mini Cooper for 15 years. Primary car for 12 of those.
I’ve owned a total of five cars in the last ten years. My problem is that I want to keep every car I buy long term, but life keeps getting in the way of that for one reason or another.
The longest I kept a car was my 2003 Miata, had that one for three years and some change. I drove it from 140k to 170k. It eventually needed a bottom-end rebuild which I couldn’t afford. I had to sell it non-running for dirt cheap. Honestly, it had become a project car that I didn’t have the time or money for by that point in my life, but I still miss it sometimes.
Longest I had a car was 21 years, an ’87 Corvette, and in spite of taking pretty good care of it, it was basically garbage by 110,000 miles.
Doing my part for the average though as my fleet average is 16.75 years.
It’s no surprise people are holding onto their much better built, much more reliable, and relatively cheap to run cars. It also helps that people are kinda broke at the moment and a brand new car comes so loaded with nonsense most drivers don’t need that the price balloons silly figures.
The only thing I absolutely “need” out of a new car is power everything, adaptive cruse control (because it’s kinda nice, though my current car doesn’t even have it, nor power windows or locks), and a good comfortable ride. Hell, I wish I could trade my stupid sunroof for power everything in my comparatively caveman car!
I think the rising average age of cars on American roads has more to do with the growing collector car market than just consumers not being able to afford new cars. Obviously once upon a time, old cars weren’t desirable and when they weren’t worth fixing any more they were discarded. Now this is not the case. The number of really old cars returning to the road is also increasing every year as hobbyists and mechanics restore old cars and put them back on the road after decades of sitting unregistered. The “patina” movement also increased this by lowering the barrier of entry so anyone can fix up and drive an old car, no need to even bother with paint and bodywork!
Cars from the dawn of the automobile all the way to the 2000s era are increasingly no longer being seen as disposable. People don’t throw away desirable enthusiast cars anymore, they get passed around as projects or eventually restored, and often meticulously maintained.
It’s safe to say that most Model Ts, Mustangs, Camaros, and even 90s tuner cars among so many other things, aren’t going anywhere now. They get older every year just like everything else, and as long as their fanbases keep maintaining and enjoying them, they’ll drag the average age of all cars in the country down with them every year.
I have 2 2010 Mazda 3’s, one 2011 Accord, one 2015 Lexus, a 2021 Mazda cx30 with all the modern safety stuff on it so my daughter no longer presents a danger to herself or others (she totaled a 98 C280 AND a 2014 Mazda 3), a 2001 Taco and a 2002 Qx4. I’m too lazy to average those ages but I’ve guessing I’m close to 12…
Wow, our fleet is almost dead average! One 2020 RAV4 (wife’s car; 3 years), a 2011 Scion XB (my DD; 12 years), and my 98 Tacoma (mountain biking and truck stuff; 25 years). Average age is 13.3 years, don’t plan on that lineup changing any time soon so it will only get older…
I think I’m quite the anomaly on this site. I’m in my mid 40’s and have owned 4 cars in my life. My first one I had for roughly 7 years, my second I had for 8, my third for 10 and my current is a 2018 that I hope to have at least 10 years+.
My fleet’s average age is 16 more or less with one 6 year old vehicle and two 20+ year olds. The longest I’ve kept a vehicle is 33 years for my 1978 BMW R100S motorcycle and the longest serving car was our 97 Saturn SL2 which we had for 15 years. At the time it grenaded its transaxle it was 20 years old and we were fully prepared to keep it for a few more years.
deleted, found the post i thought failed
I’ve owned a 2008 Grand Caravan SXT since December of 2008 – bought it brand new. So that’s about 14.5 years. The plan is to keep it forever since it has the lifetime powertrain warranty. A close second is my other car, a 2000 Porsche Boxster S 6-speed that I bought (used) in early 2009.
I had an 08 Grand Caravan SXT that I loved. Wish I still had it. I ironically traded it for an ’04 Sequoia.
Carlos Ghosn’s sentence was going to be 25 years to life in an Altima. He chose to flee to a failed state instead.
My 2012 Wrangler has 150K mostly problem free and is still under the bumper to bumper warranty. Costs have gone up so much that it would be 40% more to buy the same thing today.
I owned my 2003 Ram 1500 13 years and sold it to buy a 4×4 truck. I still see that truck on the streets around town as a now 20-year-old truck and wouldn’t mind having it back. That said, I will endeavor to keep my 2016 Ram Rebel on the road to the 20-year mark. My wife’s car is 9 years old and showing no signs of decline. Maintenance and repairs are a lot less costly than buying new or even used. So, I’d rather spend my money keeping what I have in like-new condition.
I don’t tend to keep cars too long, I tend to get bored and trade or barter things. I think the longest we have in our family is my ‘08 Mustang that my mum actually bought new so it’s been in the family for 15 years, that car won’t go anywhere because it’s now a family thing and I’m hoping to teach my son to drive in it in another 15 years!
Got pretty much exactly 15 years out of my ’04 VW Passat wagon. 123k miles. We were already planning to replace it when the front axle up and broke. Coming up on 4 years and 27k for its replacement, a ’19 Alltrack. We’ll see what VW is selling in 2034.
I bought an ’87 Chevy Nova in ’94 while a freshman in college and still have it.
My current daily is a ’12 Mazda5 6MT that I bought new in June ’11 so not quite the average yet, but my back-up for that is an ’08 V8 Pathfinder we bought new in ’08 and is still driven a couple times a week. My wife’s ’20 Model Y is the “new” car though and we’ve had it almost three years.
I bought my ’68 Olds in 1995 and I still have it, so I feel like this average age thing is my fault.
Longest I had a car was my 2000 Accord 5MT that I had from 2002 until 2016. I tend to keep my daily drivers a long time.
My secondary/offroad/camping vehicles, not so much. Right now that’s a 2008 Toyota Sienna AWD that I got in 2019 and I use to camp in and as my winter vehicle. Has a solar install and a bed. Pretty basic, but good enough for a week or so of camping out. It’s not going to do any rock crawling, but with AWD and A/T tires, it can do most forest trails/etc without issue. I plan to keep it for a while, since it fits my use case perfectly.
So, I *purchased it* when it was almost at that 12.5 year average, and barring any huge mechanical failure that isn’t worth fixing, I imagine I’ll be keeping it for at least 3 or 4 more years.
I generally buy new and keep my vehicles for ~10 years. I have owned 3 new vehicles, in addition to a few of classic/toy vehicles and a used Leaf I bought to try an EV.
My first was a 2002 Civic I drove for 10 years. I sold it to a relative who drove it 6 more years before it was totaled by an idiot texting while driving. That car had 170,000 completely trouble-free miles. It never required anything beyond scheduled maintenance.
Second was a JKU I bought new in 2012. I drove that for 9 years and 160,000 before trading it in. Over that time it needed three batteries (it was a manual so I bought the cheapest battery available since I could push start it). It had one unscheduled repair in that time aside from the batteries (a sensor that failed at 25,000 miles; it was replaced under warranty).
Third new vehicle is a 2021 F250. It has 45,000 miles and so far has been perfect. I anticipate this will be the last new ICE vehicle I will ever buy.
There is so much kvetching about how new vehicles are expensive, but I think that misses the point. Vehicles are intended to be transportation, and transportation is as affordable in 2023 as it was in the past. A 20-year-old $3000 Camry won’t impress your friends, but it will go the same places as a new $75,000 Lexus.
I’m about the same. Ten years seems to be the magic number on new. I had a 2007 HHR that I bought new, then traded up to a 2017 Traverse that I still have, also added a 2022 Trax to the fleet last year. The Traverse doesn’t get driven much except for family trips, so maybe we’ll keep it around longer…I certainly can’t replace it with something comparable with today’s prices. I’m hoping my next new vehicle will be electric.
My current employer won’t pay mileage reimbursement on anything over 4 years old, and I drive about 40,000 business miles a year, so no way in hell am I doing that without compensation. Which means, I’ve got a little less than 3 years before I’m in the market again, against my will, if I had it my way, I’d buy a low mileage 1 or 2 year old car I really like and run it to over 200,000 miles, rinse and repeat, but that’s not possible currently.
However, my second car recently turned 59, and, after a pretty long laundry list of recent work, is completely sorted out and actually needs nothing at the moment, running and driving like it’s essentially brand new. Only drive it a few hundred miles a week on average, though
What is the rationale for not reimbursing mileage for an older vehicle? That makes no sense at all.
Do they want their employees to have something reliable to get the work done and not have work delaying breakdowns OR do they want new appearing vehicles to look professional in front of clients? Very good question.
I have no clue, they also prohibit anything with less than 4 doors, unless it’s a pickup truck
I have generally moved on from cars after 4-5 years. Lately, I have been putting 20k miles per year on a car so by the time I am at 80-100k miles and out of warranty, time for me to move on to the next reliable vehicle. I have traded off from gasoline power to diesel to PHEV and back to gasoline now. Likely go all in on electric next. Just trying to balance out what the next move will be since both my wife and I now are each driving about 20k per year. I put a premium on new or almost new cars because I don’t have time to deal with a dead or troublesome car. Now have to start thinking about keeping one a little longer now to pass down to kid 1 who has 4-5 years before driving.
To me, age isn’t necessarily an issue, mileage is more of a concern. Newer is better from a safety perspective but not always as fun. Lot’s of attributes to weigh when making a decision in regards to will I (and family members) fit (6’4″), can it handle a long commute as well as kid/sport/everything hauling, needs to be safe, has to handle poor weather, needs to be fun and efficient, etc. Current Sonata N Line fits most of these well enough for now.
My daily driver is a 1992 BMW 525i, it’s got 307k miles and it shows no signs of stopping. I do about 20k miles a year on it, and it just keeps on chugging along so why change it up. I have it sitting nicely on coilovers, the seats are comfortable, the AC works brilliantly, and it already has bad paint so I can park it outside in the Phoenix summer without caring. I don’t remember the last time I owned a car that was newer than 2003, haha.
My family owned an old AMC Concord for 15 years until the floorboard rusted through.
As reported, higher prices and advancing vehicle age means the quality of used cars are decreasing rapidly for those who can barely afford to purchase, much less pay for the higher likelihood of their recent purchase needing major repairs.
As for future used EVs, I doubt many dealers unless forced to will honestly disclose the battery condition of cars for sale. Because we should also expect the future Average Joe future EV owner to abuse their car battery packs (I expect most of them to freqently charge to 100% and/or drain to <10%), people barely able to afford older cars will be under considerable risk of being stuck with one that is severely range compromised.