The new car market is still booming but a bust may be on the way very soon. Oh, and Mitsubishi releases U.S. pricing for the new Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. All this and more in today’s issue of The Morning Dump.
Welcome to The Morning Dump, bite-sized stories corralled into a single article for your morning perusal. If your morning coffee’s working a little too well, pull up a throne and have a gander at the best of the rest of yesterday.
New Car Market Still Hotter Than Venus
Did interest rate hikes do anything to cool down the new car market? It turns out, probably not. Reuters reports that the car market is still running red hot despite expected delivery increases.
“Transaction prices still rose and consumers spent more money on new vehicles this month,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, adding auto sales are yet to see an impact from the ongoing monetary policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve to curb inflation.
Retail sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 958,948 units, a 5.4% increase from September 2021.
September seasonally adjusted annualized rate for total new vehicle sales is expected to be 13.6 million units, up 1.5 million units from 2021, the report showed.
While this hot market might seem temporary, the reality might not suit everyone’s definition of temporary. We’re still expected to close out 2022 with a multi-million new vehicle deficit compared to pre-pandemic levels. This will likely have lasting effects on the car market for several years.
But Winter Is Coming
The new car market has to cool down eventually, and Automotive News reports that the industry analysts at Cox Automotive have a few predictions on when things might take a cold shower.
Cox Automotive on Wednesday cut its full-year new-vehicle sales outlook to 13.7 million — down more than 9 percent from 2021 and the lowest level in a decade.
It’s the third time this year Cox has lowered its sales forecast, which initially stood at 16 million vehicles.
Unlike previous cuts due to lack of supply, this one is a bit different. Cox Automotive cites weakening consumer sentiment as a key factor for downgrading its new car sales outlook.
Charlie Chesbrough, Cox Automotive senior economist, said COVID-related production disruptions and the war in Ukraine scuttled the anticipated improvement in inventories at the start of the year.
Now the industry faces a new wrinkle.
“It seems likely that much of the pent-up demand from limited supply is quickly disappearing as high interest rates eat away at vehicle buyers’ willingness and ability to purchase,” Chesbrough said.
Here’s where things get screwy: Despite the face value of Cox Automotive’s prediction of a year-over-year production decline, automakers are generally seeking to ramp up production. Hell, Reuters reports that BMW is still expecting sales growth in 2023. If demand is sufficiently reduced through future interest rate hikes, market conditions could shift back a touch to slightly favor the consumer. After all, supply-and-demand applies here, and increasing new vehicle supply just as the market cools off may bring incentives and rebates back onto the table.
Mitsubishi Announces Outlander PHEV Pricing
If you’re on the hunt for a three-row plug-in hybrid crossover, options are fairly slim. Thankfully, a new Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is on the scene. It starts at $41,190 including a $1,345 freight charge. That’s not bad for a plug-in hybrid crossover with third-row jumpseats fit for very occasional use.
An electric motor at the front and another electric motor at the back provide full-time all-wheel-drive, while the whole system features a rather capable electric range of 38 miles. Combine that with range from the gasoline engine, and the Outlander PHEV can go a nice 420 miles on a full tank and full charge.
Unlike many plug-in hybrids, the new Outlander PHEV offers DC fast charging to juice up the battery pack in a jiffy. However, there is a caveat here. The Outlander PHEV uses a CHAdeMO plug which is rapidly fading from relevance as more and more automakers adopt CCS connectors.
I’ve driven the regular gasoline-powered Outlander and really quite enjoyed it. Based on the rather good Nissan Rogue, ride quality is quite comfortable and interior appointments are rather nice. I wouldn’t be surprised if the new Outlander PHEV is good enough to make competitors like the Toyota RAV4 Prime and Hyundai Tucson Plug-in nervous, especially once the benefit of a third row is factored in.
BMW Updates The Z4
The BMW Z4 is a car a lot of people forget about, which is a bit of a shame. While the last Z4 was far more beautiful than the current car, BMW’s roadster still holds a certain appeal. It’s getting some nice updates for 2023, although it’s best to classify this as a fairly light facelift.
For starters, the M Sport package previously optional on Z4 sDrive30i models is now standard. This means more aggressive bumpers, sports seats, alloy pedals, a nicer steering wheel, and a stitched faux-leather dashboard are now standard across the board. Not a bad little upgrade by any means. More importantly, the Z4 receives a nifty new set of honeycomb grilles, new aerodynamically-enhanced side vents, and subtly re-sculpted side skirts. Small details, but they make a difference.
In terms of available equipment, two very good new colors are on tap: Portimao Blue, and the 2-Series Coupe’s Thundernight. More purple cars, please. Oh, and the Z4 can now be had with blacked-out headlight housings that look quite smart. Perhaps more important than what you will find is what you won’t find; BMW’s new iDrive 8 infotainment system is nowhere to be seen. I’m a fan of sticking with iDrive 7, simply because the old system’s programmable hotkeys are brilliant.
In any case, pricing for the new Z4 sDrive30i starts at $53,795, while the six-cylinder Z4 M40i now starts at $66,295, both including a $995 freight charge. While the BMW Z4 is no Porsche 718 Boxster in terms of sharpness, the available inline-six has character, and pricing doesn’t seem out to lunch. Expect deliveries to start in November.
The Flush
Whelp, time to drop the lid on today’s edition of The Morning Dump. Happy Thursday, everyone. The weekend is just around the corner. With the BMW Z4 getting some fantastic color options, I’m wondering if your car is a fun color. Whether green, blue, yellow, red, gold, purple, pink, or color-shifting, let’s hear it for your good colors.
Lead photo credit: yonkershonda, CC BY-SA 2.0
BMW should’ve had Toyota design the car, instead of the other way around.
The Outlander is the cheapest 7-passenger hybrid, or at least the cheapest 7-passenger PHEV. Too bad they rebadged the Rogue instead of the Renault Duster.
I seem to recall this time last year that the story was production would be getting back to normal in 2022…so I won’t hold my breath waiting for the cool down to start.
My Mini is BRG with a white top – easier to see in traffic.
My Innocenti is bright red with a white top – same reason.
My MINI is Laser blue.
The wife’s Audi is………….black.
BRG with white top is the correct choice for a mini
Both of my cars are very noticable. I’ve got a Tornado Red Sportwagen TDI and a Kansan Red VW Beetle, although the inexpensive paint job on it is now 12 years old and it’s looking a bit more orange than red. I love red cars though, always have. Growing up we always had at least one bright red car, clearly I get it from my dad. Who currently has a 2020 Carrera GTS, in bright red, naturally.
Our fleet, by the colors:
Corolla: non-color, literally the color of dust, saved slightly by a chocolate brown interior.
QX4: a pleasant but boring darkish pewtery silver. Black inside.
MGB GT: Bronze Yellow with white and dark gray stripes. Black inside.
Truck: Federal Standard 595, color chip 14260, aka Forest Service Green. Tan inside.
Trailer: white with turquoise trim. Interior upholstery and appliances are also turquoise.
I have a blue Civic Si, and I love the blue.
But I dream of BRG…
My car is a nice pale metallic blue. In dim lighting it looks silver, but in the bright sun the blue comes out, and it looks really good. When I bought it I waited a long time for it to be available because I didn’t want to settle for anything less than exactly what I wanted.
Prior to that, I drove a car that was a bright royal blue color. It, too, was very eye-catching.
There have been some really nice shades of dark green available lately, and I’ve ogled those enviously. I also admired the deep dark red shade that seemed to be pretty big about 5-10 years ago (I know someone who had a BMW in a color called “black cherry” that looked completely black in dim lighting, but the red tones really shone through in the bright sun.). And, call me childish, but I love that MystiChrome purple/green paint that you sometimes see ’90s Mustangs and TVRs in.
Life’s too short (and cars are too expensive) to drive something in a color that you don’t like.
An overheated car market fed by obscenely low interest rates? You don’t say…
Not being sarcastic, but the Fed was right to raise interest rates. You’re not going to be able to blunt consumer demand with things like “adulting” or “being fiscally responsible.” Sometimes you have to make it so unpalatable to finance stuff they can’t afford, they have no real choice but to hold off. Yes, it still sucks for people who actually need a car right now, but they’d be buying one either way. Although high interest rates are no fun, if this translates to dealer prices eventually coming down from the stratosphere, it’s a win for more people than it isn’t. It’s not a perfect world and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution in reality.
I’ll be interested to see if interest rate increases help stem rising inflation or not.
For all the hand wringing about the hot labor market, there’s an awful lot of crisis profiteering going on, and that likely has a bigger effect on inflation then wage increases. There’s a good chance the increase in interest rates just squeezes people on the margins further without actually confronting some material drivers of inflation
I don’t disagree with that. Some time between the first dispensation of stimulus money and inflation taking off, there was a initial creeping of commodity costs. It was suggested that if it continues in that direction, it’ll prove to be a “self-fulfilling prophesy” because it only takes one or two sectors to start profiteering or gouging, which is passed on, and on, until it becomes its own monster. I think that’s what we’re seeing now. That, in turn, feeds the demand for higher paying jobs in the labor market, which only adds fuel to the fire.
I’m not really sure any of ours are considered “fun”.
Cruze Diesel is black, both my Cobalt and Volt are white, and then my ’81 Z28 is half maroon and half primer/surface rust patina.
My cars are Ice Blue, Classic Red, Brewster Green, Titanium Grey, Pastellblau, Fathom Green, , Rosso Red, Midnight Fog, and Corsa Giallo.
The Z4 may be the best looking car that BMW makes right now, and it’s still ugly. But at least it comes in purple.
My electric Triumph GT6 conversion is currently hot-rod black. That is not its permanent color. When I get sufficient time to work on it, it is going to be painted dark British racing green.
My scratch-built microcar/velomobile currently has the body off as I’ve been upgrading it with the components necessary to be able to reach and sustain triple digit speeds. The next body shell is in development. It will be getting a rust-colored paintjob with a rattlecanned red anarchy sign sloppily done on the side, a silver Baphomet hood ornament, a fallout shelter sign for a rear derailleur access hatch, pentagram wheel disc covers, red/orange/yellow/blue LEDs inside the wheels to make it look like its wheels are on fire and increase visibility to motorists when the lighting is activated, among other aesthetic touches. It’s going to look like it came out of some dystopian or post-apocalyptic science fiction film with a bit of an occult touch when I get done with it.
My hopped-up ICE GT6 is white/rust. Some day it will be baby blue.
My Prius is dark grey. Boring, but inoffensive. (I detest biege/tan.)
In a better world I’d have something in hot pink, but woe to the resale value…
My car is black. It wasn’t by choice. I needed something right away and they didn’t have any blue or red ones in the trim I wanted/could afford. If Ford ever announces a PHEV Maverick though I’ll place an order immediately for an XLT in Cyber Orange or Velocity Blue. Hell at this point I’ll just settle for an AWD hybrid Maverick. Although since the regular hybrid is basically unobtanium I’m not holding my breath.
Same. PHEV AWD Maverick would be great. Would settle for Hybrid AWD. Hot Pepper Red, Velocity Blue, or maybe settle for Alto Blue.
If someone showed me the current Z4 a decade ago I would’ve barfed instantly. Now, when I look at the rest of BMW’s lineup, the Z4 is downright beautiful.
Mgmt: “Design team, make a good looking convertible!”
designers: “K, we’ll have all the other cars make you wanna gouge your eyes out”
BMWs current crop of cars are extremely ugly. It’s all about emphasizing brand identity over all other factors. This is also why the new Toyota Supra has so many drag-inducing cost-adding fake vents. Does anyone really want this crap other than executives and marketing teams?
BMW could be making and selling streamliners with half the drag that get nearly double the highway fuel economy with the same engines, if they wanted to. Mercedes has them beat regarding aerodynamics, by a wide margin, although Tesla has Mercedes beat by that same margin, and likewise between Aptera and Tesla.
Regarding new car prices:
I’ve been seeing a lot more commercials on TV lately touting manufacturer rebates and dealers that promise to sell at MSRP or less. Granted, those rebates are on less-desirable models, and it’s entirely possible that those dealers will still tack on other bullshit fees making their promise irrelevant, but these may be additional signs that the new car market is weakening…
My mini is volcanic orange which is the closest you can get to yellow while still being able to split peoples thoughts 50/50 on yellow vs orange. Good times.
Sadly, my vehicle is silver. But in fairness to me I bought it 16 years ago, before the world had descended into full-blown greyscale, and I didn’t realize what I was getting myself into. I also practically stole that damn thing. I bought a brand new full-size crew cab pickup, and I was out the door for under $22k, including tax and an extended warranty long enough to ensure I never had to deal with repairs and payments at the same time.
That said, I am SO. FREAKING. BORED! of the the color. My next vehicle will be blue or green, come hell or high water.
I drive an invisible car. Dark gray rav4. Have to blip the locks to find out in the sea of gray cuvs. They had a beautiful dark blue metallic one. Alas. It did not have the one deal breaker my wife and I agreed on before shopping. Memory seats. A must since it is our shared vehicle. So gray invisibility cloak it is.
“Based on the rather good Nissan Rogue,”
Citation needed.
My current car is boring and black, but the one that’s on a boat heading towards me is called Diablo red so I’m not gonna complain about that. Best color I’ve ever had was laser blue. That was a fun color. I definitely need a purple car someday though!
Neptune blue, which is a pretty bright shade similar to the Nitrous blue on the Focus RS. Got sick of non colors.
My E86 Z4 Coupe is grey. My GT86 is also grey.
I’ve had cars in all the colours, and even had one that was green, yellow and red. But I like grey.
The Z4 has a brown leather interior, which I love. The 86 has red seats, and I love those too.
I keep the colours on the inside where I can see them.
Mazda Soul Red Metallic; cost extra but so worth it vs all the other boring colors.
Same here. Great color. Had mine for a year now and I still get comments from random people about it.
The car I drive most often is kind of red-orange, so I guess that’s pretty fun?
Probably not the color I would have chosen if I’d had the choice, but when rare cars are on clearance, you can’t be too picky.