All Cars Sold In The U.S. Will Soon Have To Be Able To Automatically Avoid A Crash At 62MPH. Here’s Why That Could Be An Engineering Challenge

Aeb New Tests Ts
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New regulations for automatic emergency braking have been bandied about for years, but the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration finally made them official this week. Come Sept. 1, 2029, almost all new cars sold in America must have automatic emergency braking that can come to a complete stop and avoid a stopped vehicle ahead from 62 mph. It’s an aggressive target, and while well-intentioned, it’s a challenge that comes with a few strange exemptions and potential pitfalls.

See, these rules won’t quite apply to all vehicles. Some vehicles will see delayed introductions, some vehicles are exempt, and some vehicles will have varying ways of disabling automatic emergency braking. First, low-volume manufacturers get an extra year, until Sept. 1, 2030, to implement this new tech.

Next, these regulations don’t apply to any vehicle with a gross vehicle weight rating of more than 10,000 pounds. GMC Hummer EVs, certain heavy-duty pickup trucks, semi trucks, and basically anything with “Final Destination” levels of mass is exempt from these regulations. Finally, there both will and won’t be ways to defeat these future automatic emergency braking systems. I’ll let NHTSA explain.

NHTSA includes in this final rule an explicit prohibition against manufacturers installing a control designed for the sole purpose of deactivating the AEB system but allows for controls that have the ancillary effect of deactivating the AEB system (such as deactivating AEB if the driver has activated “tow mode” and the manufacturer has determined that AEB cannot perform safely while towing).

So, if you’re expecting a hard button to turn off automatic emergency braking, good luck, but such a function may be bundled into track mode on performance cars, towing mode on trucks, certain off-road modes on SUVs, low-range 4X4, or even disabling stability control.

At speeds of up to 62 mph, these next-generation automatic emergency braking systems must avoid a collision with a vehicle stopped on the roadway ahead. Sounds great, but it’s worth keeping in mind that braking distance is proportional to the square of the initial speed. Essentially, a car will need four times the distance to stop from 60 mph than it would from 30 mph, and given what we’ve seen from current automatic emergency braking systems, that will certainly present a challenge.

Recently, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety revised its automatic emergency braking testing to include a motorcycle and a semi-trailer, and to up speeds from 18 and 25 mph to 31, 37, and 43 mph. Four of the ten compact crossovers tested under the revised procedures scored the institute’s lowest rating of “Poor,” and the Chevrolet Equinox provides a textbook example. As per an IIHS media release: “With the passenger car target, it slowed modestly in the 31 mph tests, and with the motorcycle target it barely reduced speed at all.”

Note that “slowed modestly” doesn’t equal stopping. A number of systems on the market today fail testing at half the speed the new regulations, and these new regulations give automakers just over four years to get their systems up to speed. Unsurprisingly, automakers are unsure whether this is possible, but carmakers aren’t the only ones.

Bosch Aeb

Take automotive supplier Bosch, which has an interest in supplying automakers with better and more expensive sensor suites because that’s how money is made. In theory, this company should be all for stricter automatic emergency braking requirements, but during comment period, the firm raised some concerns. As per NHTSA:

Bosch stated that its testing shows that when the speed reaches approximately 75 km/h, there are reproducibility challenges with multi-sensor fusion of the object in time to initiate AEB and avoid the obstruction, and considerations should be made on how these requirements align with current functional safety requirements.

Translation? Higher speeds affect the reliability of obstacle detection. Now, NHTSA has gone with a no-contact rule in testing under these new regulations, and the way to fudge for margin of error on that is to increase the envelope of what constitutes an automatic emergency braking event. However, phantom braking can be just as dangerous as not coming to a stop due to creating a speed delta, and NHTSA’s upcoming tests false positive braking events aren’t entirely confidence-inspiring.

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One test involved driving between two parked cars, and that should be easy enough. Another involves driving over a steel trench plate, which is fairly standard by now. Note the absence of glare testing for camera-based systems; testing that incorporates lane shifting like in a construction zone; or testing for excessive sensitivity while following a vehicle. Oh, and did I mention that NHTSA’s phantom braking tests still allow some amount of braking of less than 0.25g higher peak deceleration than manual braking would entail? Again, not ideal.

Screenshot 2024 04 25 At 4.46.10 pm automatic emergency braking

Legislating stronger automatic emergency braking comes with great intentions, but it’s yet to be seen whether these beefed-up systems can function reliably and meet regulations. Given how long product stays on sale these days, 2029 may be less than one model cycle away for some vehicles, so automakers are likely already trying to crack this challenge. Whatever happens, it’s going to be interesting.

(Photo credits: Bosch, IIHS)

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84 thoughts on “All Cars Sold In The U.S. Will Soon Have To Be Able To Automatically Avoid A Crash At 62MPH. Here’s Why That Could Be An Engineering Challenge

  1. Two immediate thoughts. First, I’m glad I have old analog cars. Second, their brakes are not great so I’ll probably rear end a new car that is phantom braking.

  2. My 2019 [vehicle] recently had a freakout and emergency braked backing into a perfectly average and definitely empty parking spot. Was it a pebble? A shadow? I still don’t know. A few onlookers were confused and probably questioning my skills as a driver, if not my sanity. It was a hard stop.

    I really hope that vehicles become better at detection before the technology becomes even more mainstream than it already is. Or, queue the recalls… so many recalls and lawsuits…

    1. This depends on the state, but in PA, it is not! I think that is the rule more than the exception. Our driving tests are much, much too easy to pass.

      1. Speak for yourself. I passed on the 5th attempt, and I attribute that solely to having a stranger/authority figure in the car with me.

        That was ~11 years ago. I’ve had zero accidents or tickets since.

    2. I’m pretty sure the idea is that an automated system will have better reaction times and broader perception than a human (motorcycles in blind spots, for example).

  3. There’s one curve nearby with steep horizontal and vertical aspects. That curve never fails to activate my emergency frontal collision alarm, which then gives me a micro heart attack before I make the horizontal turn and clear the space in front of the sensor. It’s a slow-ish curve too, about 30 mph on a fast day.

    Good luck to anyone trying to make 60-mph automatic emergency braking sensitive and accurate enough to make no false positives or negative errors.

  4. I recently had an F40 1 series momentarily engage ABS-triggering braking as I was navigating a junction where lanes slide to the left, creating a parking lane (where cars were parked). Glad there wasn’t anyone behind.
    Now, sensors and data processing will likely advance by 2029, but this requirement seems like trying to legally prohibit cars getting into accidents. Good luck with that

  5. how on earth does this make sense if the heaviest (deadliest) vehicles are exempted. Especially now that you can buy 8000 lb pickups faster than a ’90s supercar.

  6. My ’21 CRV has this, and I disable it twice every day, to and from work. I’ll be in stop and go traffic, going 7mph, and when the person in front of me slows down, the system will beep and flash “BRAKE” at me. <Seinfeld> Really? You think so? </Seinfeld> If I can’t disable it with a button on the dash like I do now, I’ll find another way, and it’ll be more permanent.

    1. That’s the end goal, isn’t it? Let’s ask the ~43,000 people who died from traffic fatalities in the US in 2021 what they think.

  7. Like others have said this will achieve nothing, it will further raise the cost of new cars while giving those with the disposable income to buy them another reason to not pay proper attention.

    Oh and I’m sure insurance will love all the “my braking system didn’t see it” claims..

  8. The car I drive most is not new, It has all the safety systems that one would expect from a 1930’s super car. I occasionally offer lessons, sometimes court appointed for those who need to understand predicative driving techniques.

  9. Can anyone just get in a car and drive. Bad enough cars dinging and ringing about everything.
    Between car features and your phone its no wonder everyone is losing their minds. Constantly distracted from everything but the task at hand.
    Sorry for the rant, but its just getting insufferable.

  10. Safety features are great and I’m glad that manufactures are required to have every car be up to a certain standard but I wonder with things like this where the line of diminishing returns starts. Automatic breaking is expensive to develop and will likely raise the price of the bottom end of the car spectrum yet again. So the question is, does the benefit outweigh the expense?

    1. Idk, these features in their current form are already available standard on some very entry level vehicles, so I’d say that bridge has has already been crossed.

  11. Great, more safety measures to reward people for not paying attention. I anticipate this will cause more accidents than it prevents, because it’s not like every single car will be brand new with this feature, so you’ll have newer cars suddenly slamming their brakes in front of older cars.

    I know a person that uses their automatic braking system as an everyday feature rather than as a last resort… they’re a menace to society in their large SUV.

        1. I agree that the Miata is less dangerous at low speed, but that’s apparently not how this person drives. Hit a pedestrian at 40 mph and then ask if they care whether it was an SUV or a sports car. Dead is dead.

  12. I remember decades ago people were picked for important government positions based on their knowledge and experience. Until people raised a fuss they were industry insiders. Now it seems they nominate ignorant people who donated alot of money to the party.
    Note this is both parties so no political attacks are relevant.

    1. I don’t know how many decades back you’re referring to, but since I started paying attention in the ’90s this has been a thing and people much older than me have told me it was not a new thing then.

      1. Nah in the 70s and 80s most nominations did have candidates that were industry leaders. Not saying they weren’t toadies but at least they had industry knowledge.

    2. Not to get political, but some agencies under some administrations still get headed by insiders. Dave Zatezalo at Mine Safey and Health, nominated by Trump, comes to mind…dude was well known for flouting safety regulations at the mines he ran.

      There’s a happy medium somewhere, and it is neither political hacks nor industry hacks.

  13. Well, I can only hope that the technology is better in 2029 than it was in 2019, but I’m not optimistic. My 2019 Mercedes doesn’t have automatic braking, but it does beep at me incessantly when I’m going around a tight turn with a wall on the outside. Sometimes even a dark shadow is enough to set it off. With AEB, it would be slamming on the brakes, probably causing accidents.

    1. Mine (2023 integra 6mt) engaged in a similar situation getting on the ferry last weekend. Sharpish left turn up a very steep incline with a wall just to the side. Woke me right up. Curiously I was able to drive right through it, thankfully not getting stopped on the ramp with the car behind me against my bumper. I guess it was only locking up the rear brakes.

      1. Here’s hoping the technology gets better. I have had more false positives in my 2017 330i wagon than I can count. I have never had a correct positive (thankfully), although based on its accuracy to date I have no faith it would work if I needed it. I firmly believe this tech enables bad behavior in distracted driving while also making the car more dangerous for attentive drivers via phantom braking. The car would be safer without it.

        1. Same with my 2018 Mazda 3. No outright phantom braking yet, but the technology does not seem to understand that if I am engine braking in 2nd at 15 mph I do see the car ahead that is turning right and am ready to stop if I need to, and it’s damn near got me ass-ended twice this way.

          1. Most of the errors my 2018 Accord emits about lanes and following are easy to deal with. The concerning ones to me are its irrational fear of large white semis, trucks and snowbanks. It has applied the brakes in the middle of perfectly safe four lane passing situatuons when it detects a largish truck or semi.

  14. Just throw us in personal transportation pods already. God forbid we have to actually operate our own motor vehicles and exercise responsibility.

  15. Maybe I’ll be able to get back on public roads with a motorcycle in the 2030s.

    It’s the idiots in other cars that made me hang up my boots.

    1. Even if it stops people from running into you head on, it’s not going to stop idiots from pulling out in front of you or changing lanes into you. Any safety increase will also likely be offset by malfunctioning systems and people paying less attention than they do now.

      1. You’re probably right. Maybe when most cars are level 4+ autonomous I can get back on the roads. Until then, I guess it’s sleeper e bikes and dreams of rokons for me.

      2. Good point on most roads people follow close enough to create warnings. Will these vehicles be able to differentiate between close moving vehicles and stopped vehicles?

    1. Possibly. It’s notable that the 2024 Subaru WRX and BRZ with manual transmission are equipped with the Eyesight safety system for the 2024 model year. Previously, Eyesight was not available on manual transmission equipped vehicles.

      1. Do those have automatic braking? It seems to me that the car would either have to have a clutch override or just kill the engine, both of which could be problematic.

    2. My integra 6mt has it, so no. It engages too easily. See my comment above though. I was able to ignore it when it incorrectly engaged last weekend.

    3. Nah, my manual GTI has it. Phantom braked once in 5 years (good ratio I guess, but scary AF when you don’t expect it. Luckily noone was following me) Basically stalls, just need to restart. That said, the nails are already firmly in the coffin regardless

  16. This strikes me as well-intentioned but not ideal.

    How will it handle dirty or icy sensors? Or for that matter an icy road? Slamming on the brakes at full power could be the opposite of what’s needed there.

    1. I would guess much the same as vehicles currently do. If there is dirt or snow on any of the sensors on our 2021 F150, it gives you a warning that the feature is inactive, which you must hit ‘OK’ on the steering wheel to accept. Seems reasonable.

      Given that this will functionally still be an advanced ADAS feature- with the driver assumed to be in legal control of the vehicle- I would imagine there will be some regulatory tolerance for the system not functioning in adverse conditions. Especially if they’re already willing to make allowances for towing, driving modes, etc.

      Provided these systems are engineered to be reasonable in their functionality and not cause new safety issues, this is one situation where I am okay with not letting perfect be the enemy of good, unlike true autonomy. Even if this improved AEB is only 50% effective in the real world, it could still save a lot of collisions.

      1. The situation I’m concerned with is a false positive (an unnecessary braking event) and any circumstance that could allow that to happen.

        I’m not usually a Luddite, in fact I usually enjoy laughing at the most extreme examples of that tendency in this comment section. I’m a bit more concerned at the ability of the car to take control *in spite* of driver action here. Even self-driving has to be actively turned on.

        1. I agree, I would hope the systems are tuned on the conservative side to eliminate false positives.

          I think the systems will have to be lenient- I’m no lawyer, but AEB failing to stop a collision that *would have happened anyways* due to justifiable circumstances seems more legally defensible than over zealous AEB causing an unnecessary collision.

    2. Or a bug right before it slams into a sensor.
      “40 car pile upon the Tri Boro Bridge tonite due to a dragonfly being mistaken for a UPS truck” alas Doug can’t get home to Carrie tonite.

      1. Heated sensors, with spray cleaners like headlight washers on some cars.
        There’s a engineering solution to most problems, it just takes time and money to figure them out.

        1. The normal human use of temperature is weather, not the phases of water. Once past high school science, I’ve never measured the temperature of boiling water in my life.

          0-100 being the normal range of temperatures most human beings experience in their weather provides a more useful spread than -18-40 or whatever.

          “It’s going to be in the 70s F outside” is a more useful statement for understanding weather conditions than “It’s going to be in the 20s C”. 20 might be jacket weather, 29 is shorts and a tank top.

          Finally, I loathe decimal places in my temperature measurements. With each C degree being nearly twice the size of an F degree, you need to use 0.5 or lose the precision.

          1. I could respect Fahrenheit as a temperature scale if 100 was human body temperature, which it isn’t, and zero was something useful rather than the freezing point of a particular mix of antifreeze.

            Centigrade has zero as freezing of water, which is very handy if you live where the roads can be occasionally icy. Weather changes quite a lot either side of zero Degrees C.

            I really like the temperature scale they use in the north of England, it’s digital: coat or no coat.

            1. My only beef there is that you’ve got either “negative” (3 syllables) or “minus” (two syllables) to slap in for temperatures that are very common in winter in my neck of the woods.

              Negative Fahrenheit temperatures obviously happen, even here at times, but they’re much more of an “event”.

              If giving up Fahrenheit was the cost of switching everything else to metric in the US, I’d still switch to metric, but I do agree with V10omous’ reasoning.

              1. You’re worried about the syllable count? Gosh.

                When we hear a “minus” before a temperature we know it’s going to be icy. We don’t even need to know the actual temperature.

                1. I mean, if I hear “minus” (F°) and am going to be outside for more than seconds between a house and my car, I know I need my balaclava, boots, and thermal socks.

                  1. So the syllable count is only a problem when it’s freezing but not yet properly cold?

                    Maybe you should use Kelvin. It’s an optimistic scale: it’s always positive.

        2. The concept I like is:
          Farenheit is how humans experience temperature.
          Celsius is how water experiences temperature.
          Kelvin is how the atoms experiences temperature.

    1. The best defense is to just create your own measurement system, then no one can take it away from you.

      For example, today the temperature was a high of 672 Goofs. Lovely spring day!

  17. Having driven a car with a poorly calibrated auto brake (2020 Nissan Rogue work car), I can’t imagine having to live with auto brakes fulltime. The car would randomly slam the brakes with no warning and no actual hazards present. It’s a turn off for a car to be equipped with IMO.

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