The Used Car Market Won’t Be Normal Again For Years

Used Car Market
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There was a time when you could walk into any used car dealership and find a two- or three-year old car in reasonable condition at a decent price. Those days are over, for now. The used car market has continued to suffer from disruptions, going all the way back to Cash-for-Clunkers, and there’s no sign it’s going to improve anytime soon.

While we’re talking about used cars, the Pebble Beach Auction market showed signs of softness this year. Plus, why America’s conflict with China is good news for Vietnam and why Ford may have to recall Mustang Mach-Es again.

Also, I got in late last night from Car Week and I look and feel like a steamed lobster so, yeah, apologies in advance if I screw something up.

The Used Car Market Is So Weird Now

graph of used car inventory
Mid-August is a fun time to look at the car market because it typically moderates a bit, perhaps in the face of people not wanting to walk around a car dealership lot when it’s unbearably hot in much of the country. This is especially true this summer, with average temperatures reaching approximately 9 million degrees.

[Editor’s Note: A bit of an aside, but: There are, of course, tons of factors that go into the seasonality of car sales, including when tax returns show up, when new model-year cars show up, and yes, weather. Here’s a bit about how weather affects buyers, via CarMax:

The farther south the state, the more car sales peak during winter and spring. From a climate standpoint, these are the states that typically avoid harsh temperatures during the colder months. Instead, they are defined by beautiful weather that encourages people to be out driving around, not worrying about shoveling snow out of the driveway, defrosting windows, sleet-covered roads, and other weather-related issues. States located closer to the equator, like Arizona, Florida, and Texas, that are known for year-round sunshine and heat showed the most sales during the winter. Midwestern states, like Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Oklahoma, had higher sales trends during the spring months, which is when temperatures are mild and the sun is shining.

Obviously, there’s a lot more to it than that, and now supply chain woes are throwing things out of whack, but car-sales seasonality is interesting. -DT]

Are you willing to melt your ass to check out a five-year-old CRV? In this market you probably are!

Car dealerships make such a fascinating way to look at the larger macroeconomic picture because they’re selling expensive goods with negotiable prices many people require to participate in the workforce and, yet, are often purchased emotionally and typically require financing.

Right now we’re in the wacky season because used car wholesale prices in the first half of August actually ticked up 0.1% month-over-month while, in general, used car prices are down across most segments according to Manheim/Cox. As new cars become more available and prices come down there’s less room for used cars, so dealers are starting to cut back on their supply. What’s going on here?

Here’s an important bit from Automotive News:

Bleaker used-vehicle supply comes as dealers also work to reconcile their operations to a macroeconomic environment characterized by wholesale pricing volatility and demand dampened by higher interest rates.

Sticking to a smaller supply of 30 to 45 days is an increasingly important practice for franchised dealerships as floorplanning expenses have grown, Long said. Dealers want to avoid overstocking used vehicles to minimize the risk of values falling before they can sell them, Ricart said.

That’s all well-and-good until dealers find themselves short of cars and then have to go out and find more. As pointed out this morning by CarDealershipGuy in his email newsletter:

This happens because dealerships are running on lean inventories to reduce their risk exposure and lower costs. However, when business shows signs of picking up, dealerships are panicking to resupply their lots, driving the prices up.

So, yeah, it’s going to be weird for a while. But I want to focus less on the month-to-month and more on the larger picture, because month-to-month volatility is nothing compared to the long-term issues the market has to contend with for at least the next two years.

Here are some key factors:

  • 8.1 Million, that’s the number of cars that weren’t sold in the United States between 2020 and 2022 compared to the prior two-year period according to Cox Automotive. This, of course, was due mostly to the pandemic.
  • 12.2 years, which is the average age of cars on the road, according to S&P Mobility. This is a record number.
  • -2.5 million, which is the number of lease maturities (when leases end) expected from 2023 to 2025 when compared with 2020-2022.

That last number comes from the Automotive News story I linked to earlier, which includes this great quote:

That gap in supply will slowly move down the timeline, iSeeCars Executive Analyst Karl Brauer said.

“It’s like a snake that eats something giant,” he said. “That bulge doesn’t ever really go away. It just slowly moves down the snake. That’s what we’re in.”

I wish I’d have thought of that analogy. It’s true, though. Think about it this way: If it takes 2-to-3 years for most leases to mature and we’re going to be losing more than two million leases over that period, even if leasing suddenly rebounded today it would take until 2025 at the earliest to have those post-lease vehicles appear on the market.

All of these factors, plus Trimflation, mean that we’ll have fewer good quality used cars available in the long-term and the ones we’ll get will probably be more expensive to purchase and own.

This sucks if you want a used car, but I still think it’s a big opportunity for someone in the new car market to sell something that the market wants (a compact CUV) at a reasonable price and pick up a lot of marketshare.

The Pebble Beach Used Car Market Also Wasn’t Great

Beau at auction

Last year was a record year at Pebble Beach, but this year the sales were softer. We all spent a lot of time in the RM Sotheby’s auction and the room felt a little quieter than the prior year, though we did personally drive the price of Frisky microcars way up.

Our pal Hannah Elliott at Bloomberg has all the details:

By the end of the weekend, total sales reached a little more than $400 million across five auction houses, including after-sales, down from $473 million last year. An average sell-through rate of just 68% for 1,225 vehicles fell short of the 78% rate from last year, when there were 1,023 on the block. A sell-through rate of 80% or more is considered healthy for a car auction.

Average sale prices faltered, too, dropping to $477,981 from $591,768. Several Ferraris struggled, even though they’re largely considered market-proof. At Bonhams a 1967 Ferrari 412 P took $30.2 million after a lackluster show of bidding, far less than the expected $40 million. A 1964 Ferrari 250 LM at RM Sotheby’s reached a high bid of $17 million—but missed its reserve and didn’t sell at all.

Funny story about that: I actually bumped into the seller of the most expensive car at Pebble this year and got to chat with him about the sale (everyone is keeping his name out of it so I will as well, but it’s not hard to figure out who it is). He was as calm as ever and didn’t seem too bothered by the sale, pointing out that $30 million is still $30 million dollars.

What’s going on here? Are people afraid of a recession? Are high interest rates hitting even the uber-wealthy? There’s probably some of that, but I think that after years of record corporate profits driving money into the hands of the 1% that a lot of the really great condition cars have sold and people are getting pickier about what’s left.

Japanese cars are becoming more collectible, but there were still very few for sale this year and it wasn’t quite the crowd for them anyway (most good Japanese cars seem to end up on the web). It seems like the one place where the market is still strong is for prewar cars, which makes sense as it’s one easy way to win an award at the Concours (especially if they’re German… for whatever reason).

Vietnam Is The Perfect Hedge Against China

Sumitomo

The ongoing will-they/wont-they between China and the United States is making it harder for firms who rely on China for turning their rare earth materials into things like the magnets we need for phones and wind turbines and, oh, cars.

You know which company has a ton of rare earth deposits, is pretty close to China, and hasn’t gotten its processing industry together? Vietnam!

Go read this Reuters article that breaks down everything that’s going on here:

U.S. officials have signalled growing interest in Vietnam’s rare earths potential amid discussion to upgrade bilateral ties this year, and South Korea signed a deal with Vietnam in June to boost its supply chain of critical minerals.

Magnet makers are also drawn to Vietnam by low labour costs and market access afforded by multiple free-trade deals. They also want to move closer to Vietnam-based clients, such as automakers and electronics firms, which are increasingly wary of over-reliance on Chinese supplies as relations worsen between Washington and Beijing, industry insiders said.

Vietnam is the only country beyond China with all stages of the magnet supply chain, from mining rare earths to downstream production, said a Vietnam-based industry consultant, who was not authorised to speak to media so declined to be identified.

Of course, it’s going to take a while for all of this to come into play, if it ever does.

Did The Mustang Mach-E Recall Actually Work?

2021 Ford Mustang Mach E

The transition to electric cars isn’t going to be easy, and the otherwise pretty good Mach-E is a case-in-point. Last year Ford recalled all of its cars due to the possibility that the electric crossovers could just stop working. Why? The reason was pretty great:

Direct Current (“DC”) fast charging and repeated wide open pedal events can cause the high voltage battery main contactors to overheat. Overheating may lead to arcing and deformation of the electrical contact surfaces, which can result in a contactor that remains open or a contactor that welds closed.

A “wide open pedal event” is when someone slams on the skinny pedal which, if you have an EV, you’re doing a lot for funsies. Unfortunately for Ford, people keep complaining this is happening after the recall, which involved a software update that was supposed to lower battery temperatures to avoid this happening.

Per the Detroit Free Press:

At issue is how Ford has handled the recall and whether it implemented an effective remedy. An estimated 64,727 Mach-E vehicles are covered by the investigation, according to an Office of Defects Investigation document filed with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. So far, 12 reports have been put forth from consumers whose vehicles had been reportedly fixed but the fix didn’t stop the problem, said the report, dated Aug. 17.

Not great.

The Big Question

Have you purchased a used car lately? How? If you were to purchase a used car, where would you look?

Photos: Author, Ford, Sumimoto, Cox, Penske Cars

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100 thoughts on “The Used Car Market Won’t Be Normal Again For Years

  1. I bought a used car for my son in July. Hyundai Tucson, from my neighbor I paid kbb good condition for it. They were happy and so was I. Either of us may have done a little better scouring the market for months but not enough to make it with it.

    Also bought a new car for myself after looking for months for 1-2 year old used ones which were typically 90-110% of the price of a new one with 70-90% of the vehicle life left.

    Finally sold my old truck for the upper end of kbb very good condition. Took three days.

    Obviously there are a lot of factors but many people over paid for cars over the last year or two and seem to think they can get the same premium when selling them

  2. I just bought a 2022 Volvo V60 Recharge with 7500 miles on Cars & Bids. Significant savings compared to equivalent listings I had been watching for several months before. Maybe auctions are the places to find deals in today’s market.

  3. Yeah, it’s a good thing every car company is axing cheap cars because, you know, you can just buy a used mid-priced car for a new cheap car amount of money. Oh, wait…

    1. I wonder how much OEM product planning got shifted by the ubiquity of “never buy new” advice. Like, obviously COVID was a huge break, and now it’s a new world between the rise of pricey EVs and the death of sedans, but even 5 years ago it was conventional wisdom that nobody should buy an $18k new car when a 3-yo Corolla was almost as good and cost half as much, while a 6-yo Civic was half as good and cost a quarter as much.

      And at some point the manufacturers had to ask themselves, why are we trying to compete with the used car market at all? Let sedan buyers go to used car lots, we’ll make bigger profits selling crossovers.

  4. I bought 2 used cars this year, Feb and April. Both were very good deals (vs current market price) in pristine condition: Tesla ’18 Model 3 Long Range AWD w/ 28k miles for $30k and an ’08 Ridgeline RTL w/ 29k miles for $15k. Both cars had silly prices at local dealers, so I went to each coast (CA/NY) from Chicago to find them private party. At the same time, I sold my ’18 Chevy Bolt EV for $22.5k after buying it for $14k just a few years before. Tesla prices were on the way down (right after 20% price drop), Bolt going up for whatever reason (tail end of high gas prices??).

    The cheapest price on a low mileage Tesla Model 3 LR-AWD was $37k, and the condition wasn’t nearly as nice. All the dealers knew nothing about the car, unwilling to answer basic questions. Private party owner knew the current PSI of each tire and history.

    Ridgeline’s closest comparable was an ’09 w/ 100k miles, rusted rockers for $13k or 34k mile versions for $25k, at dealerships.

    Takeaway: Private party and be willing to road trip. Know what you want and be ready to make an offer and fly/drive out. Ask for a ton of photos/video and have a heart to heart with the seller. I’ve done this 7-8 times and its always worked out.

    1. It IS a good strategy.
      Did you pay cash for both the Tesla & the Honda?
      I’m guessing you paid cash for the Honda (given it’s age, I’d think financing might prove difficult).

      If you financed the Tesla, I’d love to hear more on how easy/difficult it was to finance & what that process looked like for you. I suppose if you completed a PPI it may have been relatively easy to finance?

      1. Cash for the Ridgeline, and financing for the Tesla at my credit union w/ no PPI. Typically, I can get financing approved with a VIN over the phone in an hour, they’re super relaxed. Interest rates are stupid high everywhere, so I only financed for 2 weeks until I could pay the $7.5k difference between Bolt I sold and the Tesla.

  5. I just bought a used car back in March. A 2015 Forester with 55K miles. The previous owner babied it, so it is (was) immaculate! I’ve put 15K miles on it in the last 5 months…

    Overall the selection of used vehicles was slim, and I was checking dealerships 100 miles away. I happened to get lucky and this one was offered from the Subaru dealership a couple miles from my house, and the previous owner had sold it to them the previous night!

  6. I was recently in the used market, looking for something a little less thirsty than my ’06 Saab 9-5 and wow is it ridiculous. My primary targets were 1st and 2nd gen Honda Fits and while they could be had for under $10k, the idea that I’d be paying that kind of money for a 10-15yo subcompact city car is just insane. Between that and the difficulty selling a Saab to anyone other than a dedicated nutjob, I figured I’d just keep the cargo jet for the time being.

      1. It’s such a good car, but it’s getting tired and I feel bad just driving it into the ground. If I had the money to do proper upkeep, I absolutely would, but in life there are compromises and one of those is that I’m done spending money on cars for a while.

      1. Yeah but 3rd gen was well out of my price range, unfortunately. I like the simplicity of the 1st gen, but my wife said it felt too much like a “high school” car. I’m going to keep an eye open for a nice low-mile 2nd gen manual Sport when my Saab really starts going awry.

        1. I picked up a MT 1st gen in ’21. It was rough and had 250k+ miles but I needed a car after mine was totaled. I had the seller replace the clutch before purchase. The only money I’ve put into it so far has been refreshing the A/C for under $250 and oil changes.

          It does feel like a high school car and I’d like a nicer highway commuter but damn is it fun to drive.

  7. I bought a used car 18 months ago, an ’07 Corolla. Aside from a hefty bill to fix failed power steering hard lines — Toyota wanted $450 for the pair, NOT installed — it has been a reliable, if abysmally boring, piece.

    With luck, when I replace it, another used car will be the choice. Two reasons: a) new cars hold zero interest for me, and b) none of my choices (or even replacement/updated versions) are in production now.

    Sadly, it looks as if my choices are bringing Big Coin on places like BaT right now. And, when I’ve actually found a reasonably priced example, they are all cursed with “salvage” titles.

    1. Good point – you have much more to choose from among used cars. New is limited to what is on offer today. Buying used, you can decide what you want, then seek out the best one available, or wait until what you really want is offered for sale.

  8. Purchased a used car last October, so it may not be the definition of “recent”. I actually used CarFax to start my search which then connected me with various dealers and such. I felt like they had a pretty good search engine though. I also looked at Craig’s List for comps, although I generally didn’t see a lot there that interested me.

    Now, I know that CarFax has it’s issues, so I was mainly using it to see what type of info I could get regarding service records that had been entered. And yes, I do understand that just because service records are missing, it doesn’t mean they were never performed.

    In my instance, I was looking for a specific car (Solara convertible) which haven’t been built since 2008. These aren’t too terribly difficult to find unless you want one in like-new condition with low-ish miles considering the age of the vehicle. $10k got me one with 115k miles from a single owner that had been well maintained and taken care of. The paint is so smooth that your butt just glides across the car.

    It needed a new timing belt, but I had just assumed that any Solara I’d be considering was going to need it. With that out of the way, the car runs great and doesn’t need any major servicing (including brakes) for quite some time.

    Was I overpaying at $10k for a 15 year old car? Probably. But, like I said earlier, the car is in pretty much perfect condition and being a Toyota I have a ton of confidence it’ll give me trouble-free ownership. And it’s a pretty fun car to drive with the top down. So I don’t feel too bad about the price I paid.

  9. Yep, purchased a 2020 Subaru Outback Touring XT with 13k miles in early August 2023 (a COVID car lease return, it was sold new at the end of that model year in 9/21). Anyway, I knew full well the market was nuts and interest rates sucked and this was technically a want, not a need. And I’m a logical and responsible person, right?! So what the heck was I thinking?!

    Leaving aside the subjective reasons for the purchase (yes, one can want an Outback, esp. with the turbo), my luck was to purchase it “off-label,” i.e., from a non-Subaru dealer. They’d had it on their lot for about a month and just kept cutting the price. Ultimately, I realized I’d be crazy not to bite. And so I did. And even with the amount of interest I’ll pay added to the price, it was still a screaming deal – as in literally still cheaper than all but one other example I could find in a nationwide search (across the country and in a color I don’t care for).

    And yes, while they tried to low-ball me on my trade, to their credit, they didn’t screw around when I countered, and we landed quickly at a number that I was happy with.

    TL;DR: buy off-label and research obsessively. And if you can, pay off any loan ASAP b/c rates are not low.

    Now I guess I need to go find another hobby with all my free time lol …

  10. I won’t be purchasing any late model used cars anytime soon, if ever again. Last one was 6 years old, a 2013 4Runner. Runs perfect at 158K. Still worth nearly 20K, if I was smart, I’d sell it.

    If I were to buy another vehicle, I’d check Marketplace and Autotempest. Any used car I buy is likely to be pre-2010, so I plan on avoiding purchasing locally here in New England.

    My most frequent searches have been GMT800 Tahoe/Suburbans, K5 Blazers, and 80-Series Land Cruisers. I so do NOT need an 80 series, but the want is very strong. Spent two weeks driving a buddy’s 80 in SoCal early this summer, I absolutely fell in love with it despite the horrendous mileage. Prices on 80’s are skyrocketing though, so there’s not much chance I’ll get one since they’re definitely not in the “f-it money” category. K5’s are going up even faster, so there’s even less chance of getting one of those. My dad had one in the 80’s when I was a little kid, and I drove the K10 pickup version as a teenager. I’m feeling nostalgic as I’m now in my forties and wondering where life has gone.

  11. People have such an aversion from buying new that if, on that “Other” website that starts with a J, would mention that you have ever, or would ever buy a new car people would pedantically blast you and saying that buying new is the worst thing in the history of the world and that buying new was WORSE than killing your child. Finding a decent used car is much harder than just driving to the local dealer and getting a $25K new car, like a Kia Soul.

    1. Depends on what you’re buying. Some cars just make sense to buy new if you’re looking at 2 or 3 years old vs. new. The 4Runner, Tacoma, and Wrangler have been that way for years, even before the current pricing madness.

      My ’13 4Runner was 6 years old when I bought it for about 55% (22k) of new sticker. That was the limit of my budget and a terrific deal at the time, new or nearly new were way out of my budget.

      I plan to spend substantially less on my next vehicle. This will be the last I ever finance.

  12. The last used car I bought was about a year and a half ago. I found it on Facebook Marketplace, and it was a Silverado I bought from a guy who was moving to a smaller pickup. In this market, I’d avoid used car lots and be very mindful of things if I needed a used car. Wanting one, on the other hand, gives you a lot more freedom, and it all comes down to what you want and how much you want it.

    If I needed a car, I’d probably try to find a (relatively) cheap new car, because the value proposition is wonky right now.

  13. define lately. Bought one just before the prices exploded and then as they softened. Both times to replace cars that were either failing apart or off lease.

    I ended up at dealers both times found via AutoTrader. One was a brand the didn’t sell new (same dealership network) and one was a for dealer ship that sold that brand. Both of them have a turn and burn units so the prices were low enough.

    It helped they were both 2018’s with manuals. Kind of short list in that year and beyond

  14. The last line “Have you purchased a used car lately? How? If you were to purchase a used car, where would you look?”

    I bet almost every Utopian reader looks at used cars online at least once a week! Autotempest auto-populates on my browser when I type the A.

    Of course, I have owned over 60 cars in my lifetime, so I might be an extreme. And, yes, I have a list.

  15. I purchased a used car in late may, due to the wife totaling her V-50 R-design. I honestly was looking all over the internet with no idea what to actually get until she mentioned wanting a VW again. Checked out golf sport wagons, GTIs, and regular golfs. All the prices were what I considered ridiculous on those. Came across a CPO e-Golf that I figured out would fit her driving distances perfectly. Showed up at the VW dealership 3 days after they listed it, drove it, let the dealer know we were waiting to hear back on the status of her car. Got the news on Tuesday it was totaled, and called to get the e-Golf. Picked it up that Friday. The price was considerable cheaper than ICE equivalents of the same vehicle, and also get $4000.00 back when I file taxes thanks to the IRA.

  16. Last generation Type R’s are going for around MSRP of new Type R’s. Saw a 2023 Type R for $10k ($53k) over MSRP with 11k miles. I know they’re a desirable car but that’s ridiculous.

    1. I’ve brought this up here a few times. The JDM bros need to calm the fuck down. Do I believe the CTR is an excellent car? Of course, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more universally praised car in all of my years of obsessing over cars. But do I think it’s a good 55-60,000 car?

      Absofuckinglutely not. It’s a great car at MSRP but it can’t hold a candle to what it competes against once markups factor in….and it’s not even just the FL5! The absolute eyesore that is the FK8 is STILL selling for over original MSRP years later. The only ones I see listed in the 30s are higher mileage, clapped out, or both…and you can bet your life’s savings that every single one of them has been ridden hard and put away wet.

      If these idiots would stop tripping over each other through a vape cloud to go finance $60,000 CTRs on 8 year loans at 11% APR we wouldn’t have this problem. Scummy Honda dealerships do this because they can get away with it. Unfortunately the GR Corolla seems like it’s headed for the same fate as well.

      And it sucks, but out of all the assorted enthusiast communities the JDM crowd seems to be the most cult-like of all of them. They can’t be reasoned with, and until they can all of this stuff will remain nuclear. I’d love to consider a CTR or Integra Type S but I refuse to get into a bidding war with someone who isn’t thinking rationally.

  17. I’m currently looking in California for a fly out & drive back deal on a nice older convertible. I might choose something hard top, but it would have to be unusual enough to be interesting, like a Citroën DS. Right now, I’m just getting accustomed to the markets by window shopping online.

    After the convertible, I’ll eventually look for a rear wheel drive track car, probably on the West Coast again.

  18. If Ford keeps ‘fixing’ the Mach-E the way they’ve done previously, they may have to start compensating people that thought they were getting something sporty, but now have something that their mom’s min van can beat in a drag race.

  19. I’ve bought two used cars over the past four months. Both were purchased online (Vroom, Carvana), not because I prefer that method, but because that’s where I found the vehicles I wanted. Purchase prices were a touch on the high side, but not egregiously so, and the trade-in value on one transaction was satisfactory. Overall I feel fine about both transactions, but definitely not in a hurry to go out to the market any time soon.

  20. I’m hoping my days of buying used cars are done for good, excepting maybe some cheap fun stuff (I regret selling my MR2 Spyder during the pandemic and hope to someday replace it).

    But if I did need to buy something for daily use I would follow the tried and true method of finding something unloved or unpopular and trying to negotiate down, rather than going to the default “Buy a Honda or Toyota”. Cars with great resale only make sense to buy new.

  21. I won’t be purchasing any used cars anytime soon.

    When I get the chance, I am going to finish the electric Triumph GT6, maybe even upgrade the components in it if I can find some wrecked Teslas where I am to swap in some parts. A Model 3 rear drive unit, some Model 3 battery modules, and a custom gear ratio for topping out somewhere around 200 mph would be perfect for what will be an aerodynamically slippery car that will weigh in at well under 1,900 lbs.

    I’s wants tos fucks withs somes Hellcats!

      1. It won’t at all be stock. When I drove it as an ICE as a kid, I got scared around 110 mph and didn’t top it out. The engine was not stock. It was modified for increased output before I bought it. Around 100 mph, it felt like it was floating.

    1. Having had a TR7 as my 1st car & an 84 GTI as my 2nd, I’m not surprised about the GT6’s weight.
      I think what Would surprise many here is just how mother trucking tiny a GT6 is compared even to a Honda Fit.

      1. It currently weighs less as an EV than it did stock as an ICE. The engine and its ancillaries were quite heavy.

        Upgrading to a Tesla drive system would cut more weight by allowing me to delete the manual transmission, clutch, and drive shaft, and I’d be able to move the battery pack to that empty space keeping it in the center of the car.

  22. A hole in my old Camrys gas tank failed NY state inspection, so I decided to sell it and move on. Last week I picked up a ’10 SAAB 9-3 with 97k on it for $10,500 at a used car dealer. I’m going to need to get a new unit and probably wire a backup cam, but this thing is a freakin hoot to drive. It also came from the Southwest with a clean Carfax so that’s a bonus

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