It’s only a decent time to be in the market for a used car, as prices have continued to come down off of their record highs, but it’s a great time to be buying a used electric car, as prices are dropping rapidly according to a new report. There are lots of reasons that used electric cars are worth less, proportionally, than their gas counterparts and I’ll detail them below. There’s also one big reason why used EV values are likely to only get worse.
Welcome to another week of The Morning Dump, this time with 100% more Serbian car news! We’ll be talking about Serbia this morning because I’m always amused by how tall Serbia’s President is and it dovetails nicely with news of GM’s latest contract to provide vehicles for the U.S. State Department.
And, finally, this global Dump takes us to China, where Toyota continues to face weak sales and Tesla continues to lose ground to BYD.
The Used EV Bloodbath
As you’re probably aware, the used car market has been super weird for the last few years. In 2019, used vehicles still followed a pretty predictable depreciation curve and there were enough off-lease vehicles and post-rental fleet cars to keep values relatively in check.
Then the pandemic happened, roughly concurrent with a few natural disasters, as well as government stimuli, and we entered what I like to think of as the “Carvana times” when a general lack of supply caused used car values to get super whacky. This was the era of people getting offered more for their used cars than what they paid for them.
This was not sustainable, obviously, and the slow return of regular new car inventory and higher interest rates has put downward pressure on prices. You can see the above chart, from Manheim/Cox Automotive, which shows prices quickly declining, though still at levels well above historical norms.
I’m a little jealous because Automotive News got to go to the annual Auto Finance Summit in Las Vegas on Halloween (best party in town!) and has some great insights to share, though I’m not sure why it took so long to file the story. I guess what happens at the Auto Finance Summit stays in… et cetera et cetera.
Here’s the overall look at the market:
Black Book predicts the average 3-year-old vehicle in October 2023 held 66 percent of its original value, down from 73 percent last year but up from 51 percent in October 2019. The company predicts this stat will decline to 56 percent by October 2026.
This means that by October 2026 we’ll be back to almost normal for the used car market as a whole. What about the electric vehicle market?
The average 3-year-old EV, however, only held 49 percent of its original value in October 2023, down from 70 percent last year but up from 33 percent in October 2019. Black Book expected EVs of that age would keep 45 percent of value in October 2026. It also said comparing the future EV market to previous years was difficult “and probably useless” because of the more diverse mix of EV body types in the pipeline.
As Ed Ruscha said: OOF.
A 2020 MY electric car, on average, is worth less than half of what it was sold for three years earlier. That number is going to drop to an even lower number in a few years though, uh, who knows, because in 2020 there were still some Leafs and some Model S/3s and now we’ve got Polestars and Vin-Fasts and all sorts of new stuff.
So why are EVs faring worse than their gas-powered counterparts? Here’s a good list of reasons:
- Well-maintained, a gas-powered vehicle maintains most of its same capability over its lifespan whereas the batteries in electric cars, currently, offer less value over time. [Ed Note: This was definitely the case with early lithium ion-powered EVs like Nissan Leafs and BMW i3s, but newer EVs aren’t expected to see nearly as much battery degradation over their lifespans. -DT].
- Many electric cars are luxury cars, which already face higher depreciation.
- Whispers: Infrastructure
- David Tracy.
- The best-selling EVs over the last few years have been Teslas.
- Tesla has continually and consistently lowered prices, causing the value of used Teslas to drop in turn.
- David Tracy.
- Tesla’s price drops have created a price war that’s caused other automakers to lower their prices.
- EV sales are rising and, eventually, most of those vehicles will become used cars.
Those are all logical reasons why electric car prices have gone down. But why might they go down even more than currently predicted? Again, from Automotive News:
LOL. So companies like Polestar and Hyundai can’t get any tax credit if they sell the car, but those companies can get a partial credit for any leases, which is why so many companies are offering great lease deals on electric vehicles.
That’s all well and good, for now, but in three years there’s going to be a large number of off-lease vehicles suddenly flooding the market, which should only put more downward pressure on used EVs.
So, yeah, if you wanted a Tesla maybe wait a bit and grab a used one?
Serbia To Build EV Fiat Panda
What percentage of this post is me wanting show this picture of Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic? Non-zero, that’s for sure. At 6′ 6″ Vucic is one of the tallest world leaders and, at maybe 5′ 1″, Meloni is one of the shortest.
Serbia and Italy have a long and complicated history, though they’ve generally been allied with one another and are both led by generally conservative executives with equally complicated histories. That’s not worth exploring now, because it sounds like Sebria will be making the new EV Fiat Panda, according to Reuters:
Vucic who spoke after meeting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni did not give any specific date for the production launch.
Vucic said that the production of electric Panda would boost trade between Italy and Serbia above the current 4.6 billion euros a year.
Serbia has a long automotive history (Viva Zastava!) and currently serves as an important supplier for much of Europe’s car industry. Also, the new Fiat Panda EV is probably gonna rule.
GM Lands 10-Year VIP Protection Gig With Diplomatic Security Service
I helped run the Distinguished Speakers Committee at the University of Texas, which meant sometimes interacting with various law enforcement agencies when high-profile guests came.
One of the higher-profile guests we had was former Israeli PM Ehud Barak. Politics aside, he was a great speaker and very generous with his time. The visit was a headache, though, because we had to deal with Secret Service (Former First Lady Ladybird Johnson graced us with her presence), Mossad agents (two extremely serious young men and one extremely funny slightly older guy), local police, state troopers, and campus police.
The absolute coolest, chillest, calmest and most in control person who showed up was a guy from an agency I’d never even heard of: the Diplomatic Security Service, or DSS. I like to think he was the basis for The Rock’s character DSS agent Luke Hobbs in the Fast and Furious movies.
Even if he wasn’t, I learned a little about the DSS and understand that they’re deployed around the world to keep our country’s many State Department employees safe, as well as support VIPs. They need a tough ride and it looks like GM Defense will be the source of those tough rides for the foreseeable future. From the GM Defense press release:
GM Defense will deliver Original Equipment Manufacturer integrated HD SUVs under the contract with a ceiling value of $300 million. GM Defense was awarded an initial task order through the IDIQ contract for vehicles, training and engineering services valued at approximately $25 million. This contract follows the development and validation contract awarded in 2021 that delivered prototype vehicles for comprehensive testing and evaluation.
The newly designed GM Defense HD SUV incorporates protective armor into the original design and manufacturing process, diverging from current after-market, tear-down and rebuild practices. The new approach provides superior vehicle performance while improving efficiencies in build and lead-time, resulting in faster vehicle delivery to the end user. GM Defense also provides additional benefits through a robust manufacturer’s warranty and extended vehicle lifespan that delivers value as compared to the current multi-stage aftermarket armoring process.
These things look absolutely killer, I gotta admit, and the ground-up construction of these would make me feel better if I was rolling around Karachi or wherever and had a target on my back.
China Is Becoming Tough On Imports
I’m sure Rolls-Royce and Porsche will be fine in China for the foreseeable future, but it ain’t great for the not-super-exclusive luxury/sport set in the country right now as consumers are embracing domestic brands.
First, via Reuters, is news that Toyota is halting some operations in its FAW/Tianjin venture:
“The reason for stopping the production line was to optimize the production system in consideration of aging and changes in the composition of vehicle models such as body types.”
Japan’s Jiji news service said on Friday the world’s largest automaker by sales was suspending some production as part of a major production adjustment in response to weak sales of gasoline-engine cars.
Chinese consumers are embracing EVs. Cool, that explains Toyota. So how is Tesla doing? Also via Reuters:
Sales of U.S. automaker Tesla’s (TSLA.O) China-made electric vehicles (EVs) skidded 17.8% in November from the same month a year earlier, to 82,432 cars, China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data showed on Monday.
That marked the biggest fall since December 2022 when Tesla’s sales of China-made EVs fell 21% on the year as the U.S. automaker reduced output and cut prices to deal with rising inventories and weakening demand.
By comparison, BYD saw its sales grow 31% year-over-year.
The Big Question?
Would you buy a used EV? Are there any you’re interested in? If you’re David, would you buy a third used EV?
I think another important factor is that people who buy new cars generally have more charging options than typical used car buyers. I am sure we can find out what percentage of people who buy three-year old cars own a home, versus new car buyers.
I want an F150 Lightning XLT SR. With the tax credit and incentives it can be had in the low 50K range. Right now a used one is 50K (I think most of the used ones today are dealer mules). So duh, it’s a terrible buy used. However the 36mo lease residual is 55%, so if I wait I can get a used one for ~35K. Delayed gratification FTW!
We just got this exact model. It is excellent! Highly recommend, with all the usual EV caveats about trip planning, range realism etc
Sweet! I’m jelly
Used EV? Infrastructure first! Then yes.
And… given necessary recovery time for Jason, it’s good to see you include a gratuitous art-historical reference. Very good. Keep it up.
The tax credits are another reason that EV’s don’t hold value. Basically, if you can get $7500 or more off a new one, the used one is instantly worth that much less.
I think EV’s are a great value for a 2-3 year old car coming off someone else’s lease. Because there’s little maintenance, you don’t have to worry about if the PO did oil changes, etc. The depreciation is steep so you save a lot. You typically still have the balance of an 8 year/100k mile powertrain and battery warranty (or longer in CARB states), so it’s covered for 5 years. Buy at 3 years old, sell around 8 years old. That’s what I did with our 2014 Volt, and what I’ll probably do with our 330e. Things worked out well on the Volt because I sold it while used car prices were insane, but I drove that car for around 5 years for about $5,000 between the purchase price and what I sold it for and my only expenses were a set of tires. And I’m talking PHEV’s which seem to have the same steep decline in value.
Don’t forget that used EV purchases get a good tax deduction too: $4K
Yep, but there’s a lot of restrictions on the used credits (must be from a dealer, at least 2 model years old, not more than $25,000, can only be given once per car, and there’s income limits)
We bought a used 2021 Model Y Long range this summer. That was around the time all the data was dropping about how well Tesla battery packs held up long term. We got a great deal at the time, although we may be able to beat it by $1-2k now.
I mean, yeah. That’s the current plan. In 2026, a lot of the BIL infrastructure projects will be getting complete and there will be more DC fast chargers along the most common travel routes in the west, which is one big part of being able to switch from PHEV to EV. Also in ’26, a lot of the leases on non-Tesla EV sedans that I’m interested in will be coming up, so there’ll be a lot more inventory on the market for what will hopefully be a reasonable price.
I am not interested in the used Tesla market because I really dislike the interiors and user interfaces (plus the stench of Musk is still unappealing). I will bet that the 3 and the Y will make up more than half of the used EV market, though. I also predict articles about insurance sticker shock for first-time cheap used Tesla buyers.
The insurance cost is what just turned me away from buying a decent condition, few years old Model S off a family friend. My insurance cost would almost triple. So that thing alone, liability only, is basically all the rest of my terrible van flock twice over!
No idea how the rest of y’all are doing this.
Agreed. I looked at a Polestar 2, and the insurance cost on that was 35% higher than what I was currently driving, and a Tesla S was about double, and a 3 was even more than that.
I am not super familiar with the high insurance costs associated with Teslas, but hopefully, in a few years, non-manufacturer Tesla service centers will open.
3rd party service will help some, I would imagine, but the underlying design of the unitized castings and Tesla’s reluctance to repair, rather than replace the batteries will still keep repair costs high. Teslas are designed for efficiency of manufacture, not for serviceability.
Yeah, I backed into a tesla (model 3) in a parking lot and we exchanged info, and since it was just a bumper scratch (there was nothing at all on my car) I was like, “Just get a quote and I can write you a check.”
Quote came back at a little over $14,000. I about fell over. Needless to say, at that point it became an insurance claim.
So yes, I can definitely see why insurance on them is high as hell.
I’d consider a well maintained used Tesla. Those have generally proven to be capable of high mileage with slight pack degradation. The cheapest Model Y’s are hovering at $32k or so. As other folks have said, once they get down to $25k and incentive eligible, those are going to be snapped up quickly. A lot more people can stomach a $25k loan than a $50k loan.
The next few years are going to be interesting for EV’s. Every major OEM in the US adopting NACS since Tesla had the right idea, more lithium mines and battery factories coming online and the incentives going to point of sale should help with adoption.
I came close to buying a used Bolt. The price is right, especially after tax credit, but my PHEV is meeting most of my needs and the Bolt would be worse (less roomy, less cargo space). The right used EV would certainly be worth considering.
I’m strongly considering buying a new Equinox EV when they start production of the 3LT/3RS. It would have enough additional utility to justify the upgrade (and would give me enough cargo space that I’d probably sell my pickup). We’ll see what pricing is like and how the thing drives. I’m hoping they give it the AWD off button the gassers have (hopefully to switch to RWD, instead of the gasser FWD). It’d be great to have the choice between longer range and AWD as needed/wanted.
What’s your current PHEV?
2019 Kia Niro. It’s not bad, it’s just not big enough to haul much in and has godawful tire roar. And I’m really annoyed at it because it took several visits over the course of three months to fix what seemed like a simple warranty issue, with multiple visits managing to make the problem worse. It’s probably a problem with that dealership, not the car, but it really soured me on the car.
The issue sounded like a bad solenoid for the charging port locking mechanism. They ended up replacing the port itself and leaving the door for it dangling open, then fixing the issue but the door for the port wouldn’t open. And almost every visit involved me dropping the car off, getting a shuttle back to my house, and having to get a ride from someone to pick up my car. They finally gave me a loaner toward the end of it, but only after the service manager tried to claim that they always inspect things thoroughly after their work…after the second time of them trying to give me back a car that was more broken than what I initially brought in.
Yikes! Sounds like the stereotypical Kia dealership experience in the worst possible way.
A 2014 Ford Focus Electric could be had for $10,000 in 2016, and SEVEN YEARS LATER can be bought for…$10,000. Same with Spark EVs. Leafs and genuinely broken cars like David’s i3 aren’t retaining their value well, but used EV prices are way above where you would have expected taking a long term view.
I don’t understand why compliance EVs have held their value so well. I was seriously looking at a Spark EV just for my daily commute. The prices were nuts, even after word got out that GM stopped making replacement battery packs. The fortunate few that had theirs fail under warranty had their Sparks bought back by GM for undisclosed amounts.
I think there’s a lot of people who want EVs but are held back by price – and so every price drop finds more willing customers. So for now, there’s a floor of $9k or so on (functional) EV prices.
Show me a 3 year old Polestar 2 for half the price new and I’d seriously consider it.
They are already almost at that point. 2021 P2 with the 3 packs (Pilot, Plus, Performance) are running around 35K-40K already. Sticker price was almost 70K. The lease I have for a 2021 has a residual value of 42K, and I still have a year left. Saying goodbye to it next December.
I just checked and found “a lot” of 2021 P2 Launch Editions for around $32,000
I looked them up on Autotrader just after the comment. I thought some of them were sub-60 but the new ones are 65-70 it looks so yeah, the 32-36k ones are really half price now. And some have like 4 digit mileage too. If they get into the 20s that’s crapcan commuter money. . .
Don’t sleep on the Mazda MX-30 as a used purchase. The main knock on the car (and it was a big one) was that the value was poor when it was new. The top trim was pushing 40K and still only had 100mi of EPA range.
However, examples from 2022 with around 10K miles or less are selling for ~20K for the top trim. That represents around a 50% drop in value and gets it into the range where someone could consider it as a second or third car.
I considered the MX-30, but I don’t trust Mazda to maintain parts availability or a Mazda dealer in Pennsylvania to be able to service it if it has a recall.
For parts availability the good news is that it’s still sold as a hybrid in other markets. Now, will you be able to get a new traction battery one day? Who knows
100 miles is what I typically drive in two weeks, but even I cannot look past that god-awful range.
I already have bought a used EV (2016 Leaf bought off lease in 2019) and I plan to replace it with a better used EV in a few years. I will probably end up buying a Model 3. I am not necessarily a Tesla fan, but realistically they produce the best EVs at the moment. I see decent used model 3s for the low $20s; I would be willing to pay that, but it would be nice if the prices decline even more.
Personally I’m leery of used EVs because of the “there’s no maintenance” crowd of evangelists.
Maintenance is cheaper, maintenance is less frequent, some of the really basic stuff -making sure you hit the brakes hard on occasion since they’re used relatively infrequently – is free! But there still is maintenance!
And when I bring this up a lot of people go “well I haven’t replaced anything” and it’s like, that’s not what maintenance means! It’s regularly doing stuff to make sure all the bits of your car are working well, and occasionally doing things that will keep them working well. Sometimes that means replacing, but not always!
Buying a used car is often buying the habits of the previous owner, and the Internet is making me leery of a lot of previous owners.
I will admit that I have done almost no maintenance on my Leaf in the 4 years I have owned it. For me, the biggest reason for the lack of maintenance is that I view my Leaf as a car with a limited life span. I did not buy this car with the intention of it being on the road in 20 years. I would probably treat a modern/nicer EV better.
Another reason I don’t maintain my Leaf is that I have little confidence that service items recommended by the dealer are necessary, and it is hard to find an independent shop that services EVs. I used to bring my Leaf to the dealer for yearly battery checks when it was under warranty; at these checks the service department always recommended multiple expensive service items. In some instances they couldn’t explain what the service entailed, much less why it was necessary. They also offered a list of “routine maintenance” items that did not appear in the maintenance schedule published by Nissan and couldn’t tell me why their recommended service schedule was so different from the one in the manual. I don’t necessarily think my Nissan dealer was crooked (I also don’t entirely NOT think they were crooked), but it seemed like they knew they couldn’t make money off necessary service items and tried to make up for that by offering dubious service items.
> hit the brakes hard on occasion since they’re used relatively infrequently
I’ve seen several posts from mechanics who find the brakes (and tires) on EVs to be completely shot. The theory being that people love the instant acceleration and stomp on it frequently, and then have to hard brake. It’s probably highly dependent on the driver.
When does buying a used EV become no different than buying any other used piece of electronics?
What would you pay for a 3-year used refrigerator versus new?
What would you pay for a 3-year used TV versus new?
What would you pay for a 3-year used phone versus new?
Take a look at values of 20-year used gasoline-powered cars that are well-maintained and have 150k miles on them. Very hard to imagine a 20 year-old EV with similar miles will retain anything close to that value vs. new, in some part because it’s now viewed as just a very complex piece of electronics. Change happens fast – electronic goods only get better* and cheaper with time (*overall quality can be argued, of course).
Any of you still using a 20 year-old television?
I still use a 14 year old TV.
But it was basically top of the line in 2009 and still good enough today.
That said, I wouldn’t pay more than about 5-10% of its original cost for it now. The same will probably be true of EVs.
Koenigseggsactly.
I have an 18-year-old 55″ Sony HD DLP in the basement family room. Replace the $20 bulb every couple of years, but it still works great.
Good for you. It still works, but I doubt anyone would give you $20 for it.
I held onto my huge Mitsubishi rear projection for way too long – we moved it to our new home but never ended up using it; finally paid a guy to come haul it off.
Actually, it’s worth -$40. That’s how much it would cost to recycle it. Cheaper to keep using it until some 80″ 4K display catches my eye.
Aside from tax credit and other things, exactly my main thought. EVs are more like disposable appliances, the cost of batteries, motors, etc is a huge factor. How many people just get a new fridge when the compressor goes, who want an old PC or phone instead of getting the latest greatest.
Today’s EVs should just be lease only, you can keep as long as you want, but afterwards just goes straight to a recycler.
That’s hyperbolic. There are 10 year old EVs out there not only serving their owners but holding decent value (I mentioned Ford Focus Electrics elsewhere in the thread).
Once solid-state batteries hit the mass market, nearly all previous EVs will be viewed as “dinosaurs” and largely obsolete.
TV, no, but I use a 60 year old phone at home (landline, and also a switcher that let’s my cell number work through it, since I just think it’s more comfortable to hold that handset for long calls).
Also, as far as appliances, I would probably pay up to the same price as a new one for a 40-50+ year old refrigerator or washer, if it was refurbished to an as-new standard
Your old phone and such old appliances are mechanically operated machines. There’s so much electronics in more modern ones that they become obsolete much more quickly.
This is crazy to me. You’re sitting at a landline for “long calls?” Why not just get ear buds?
I dont like them, they sit in a drawer
To each their own, dude. I refuse to hold a phone to my ear for longer than 60 seconds. I need my HANDS.
Well, I really need a couple of friends to just learn how to text, but it’s 2023 and it hasn’t happened yet
“Any of you still using a 20 year-old television?”
My television died about 25 years ago and I never got around to replacing it. So far, so good.
Kinda same: stashed mine in the spare room so I could replace the windows it was in front of about 4 years ago. I kept meaning to put it back so I could play GrandTorismo3, but I used surge protector for something else, so the tv still sits. View out the windows overlooks our valley, so that works
My 50” TV is from 1996. I still use a 10 foot C-band dish and a VCR. More free stuff out there than I could ever watch anyway. Things like my washer and dryer are 2000-ish models that are cheap and easy to keep going. No smart appliances. I burn wood for heat because that’s what I can afford. I just got high speed internet for the first time a couple years ago. Hundreds of thousands of Michigan residents (maybe over a million) are still waiting. 5G? I’m lucky to pull 4G with a booster. Public transit is nonexistent. A charging network? Ha!
My cars? An 80s Chevy Celebrity with over 300k that I’ve been driving for over 20 years, runs perfect and still gets well over EPA mpg. An 80s Olds wagon in mint condition for car shows. A 90s Jeep XJ that gets me down these winter roads that aren’t plowed half the time, runs great, and I keep up with the rust. Barely have to do anything to any of them mechanically. In over 30 years of driving I’ve never lost an engine or transmission. No touchscreens. No outside connectivity. They just work and they’re mine as long as I want them to be. And if I need to run to the city or downstate in a pinch, I can do that.
Show me EVs where the batteries have as much memory and degradation and fill time as a gas tank, and are equivalent in price to replace.
Show me a charging network with the same reliability and availability as gas stations.
Show me an EV where a battery in danger of combusting is as obvious as an ICE with a gas leak. Even propane has odors added for that reason.
Show me a dirt simple EV without all the touchscreen BS and outside connectivity. Or a modern ICE for that matter.
And show me one of these EVs that I can get for a few thousand (considering inflation as my other vehicles were all under $1500), that I can drive with full range for another 20+ years without major expense. I choose wisely because I can’t afford more than that, ICE or EV. Won’t happen in my lifetime. It’s ok, I’m cool with what I got. I don’t need to spend my life in debt keeping up with the latest trends.
Username checks out.
“So, yeah, if you wanted a Tesla maybe wait a bit and grab a used one?”
That’s exactly what I’m doing.
“Would you buy a used EV?”
Yes
“Are there any you’re interested in? “
Tesla Model S. Either a 75, 75D, 85, 85D, 90, 90D or 100D. Would also consider the ‘P’ versions as long as they have the 19″ wheels.
The prices for these are coming down nicely lately. But I’m gonna wait to next year.
I think I can get at least another 6 months out of my old 2008 Honda Fit.
I saw a Model S with 19″ Rotiform aerodiscs on it, and I thought it looked really sharp. I’d really love to see the aftermarket start producing more aero-focused wheels for EVs.
Me? No.
David Tracy? He definitely needs the cheapest 500e he can find in his life
Note which EVs are retaining their value well.
The entry level versions of the Tesla Model 3 show much less depreciation, holding 57.1% of its value after 5 years. The 2nd gen and later Nissan Leaf and the Chevrolet Bolt also retain their value well.
https://www.iseecars.com/cars-that-hold-their-value-study
This suggests that on the used market, INEXPENSIVE and RELIABLE electric cars are in demand.
The first company to bring in a sub-$25k EV(this price without any subsidy) with a 200+ mile real world range and overall good build quality, even if it’s a sedan, is going to possibly print themselves money.
Newish cars(anything built in the 2010s and later) are much too tech-laden and complex for my liking. The EVs I’d most consider buying are classic cars converted to electric. I don’t want my car to be always online and subject to over-the-air updates, I don’t want cameras and sensors monitoring the car and sending data to 3rd parties, I don’t want touch screens… Give me real buttons, a system that’s repairable with basic tools, in a vehicle I can actually work on without dealing with proprietary tools/software.
Conversions of 20th century cars to EV are really the best of both worlds.
Chevy Bolt entry trim is 27k. Pretty close to your arbitrary 25k threshhold. Range is 250 miles. Not exactly printing money with it but it is selling well.
Chevy bungled the name. I *still* don’t know which one is all-electric. The Bolt or the Volt? If GM had bet bigger on this EV it would have printed them money, or maybe version 2.
Not sure how they “bet bigger”. It exists and is literally for sale right now and has been for a couple years.
I think part of the issue was the batter fires that they resolved, but they had to pause production for a little. Version 2 is coming, maybe consumers will then finally buy what everyone says they want.
By “bet bigger” I meant marketing/advertising. But I do think V2 will be the one that might actually get traction from the mainstream.
yeah, I think they let off the gas with the marketing because of the battery recalls and the resulting unavailability of cars for a period of time.
Commenters on this site have really latched onto this “sub-$25K” car idea.
My last new car that was that cheap was a new Pontiac Vibe in 2009 (it was about $22K). A pretty economical car 14 years ago was almost $25K.
Sums up my stance perfectly on used EV’s and EV’s in general.
I know this isn’t the 1st time you’ve written it Toecutter but get out of my brain!
this is exactly what I want and have been thinking, i.e. low priced ev (under $30k), plus can easily seat 4 -5 people* and basic controls, heat/ac, radio, pl, pb, pw, Ota software updates are fine as long as selling my personal data is a no-no
And I agree a real way to do this currently is to get an aerodynamic classic car and either convert it to ev yourself, buy a well built conversion or pay to have it converted.
Option 2 (buy one already converted) very well may be the cheapest route.
This route is likely to continue be niech, however as new evs continue to scale… prices of used (crashed evs and harvesting whole cars or components or buying new ev components), will continue to decrease
Holy cow below got a bit long:
* I’d love to see a 6 seater where the layout is 1, 2, 3, or possibly 1,2,1,2 could even be 1,2,2,1…
where the driver sits in the front center for the 1st row and the other 2 front seats are staggered, just enough behind the driver to give all 3 more shoulder room, while keeping the car width narrower, lending to less frontal area. Kinda like the VW XL1 if there was a 2nd passenger seat to the left of the driver
The 2nd row may end up being most aerodynamic with a reverse layout, in the two side seats are just enough forward that the center seat is further back, so the roof down view would be kind of rounded corner Dimond shaped
1st gen Honda Insight with a manual transmission is an excellent choice. Being aluminum-bodied, it is resistant to corrosion, and it was built for durability in spite of its low mass. Its most major drawback is that it isn’t RWD.
True facts (about the gen 1 insight being a great candidate).
Scratches my brain to think of actually super aero cars that can easily seat 4-6 though.
I mean sure there’s the Schlörwagen, Tatra T77A or a Ford Probe V concept car are all amazing and would easily have been able to seat at least 4 each, if not 6 people, but actual production cars (that could comfortably seat 4-6 people), that realistically one could find below $30k, with a Cd near or below 0.20 and that was mass produced I can’t think of any. Hyundai Ioniq Electric?
Sure the MS, Lucid Air, M3 and Ionic 6 are all around here, but all of these (except the MS) are too new.
Perhaps the most practical move would be to start with an early MS* which had a cd of .24 and update it (aerodynamically to a new MS, add spats, remove the mirrors and other small tweaks
Or
start with a used LiFiPo M3 and make the same tweaks.
The MS would have the advantages of a pack designed to be easily replaced.
*sounds funny to write since an ‘early’ MS is only 11 years old, still below the avg. age of a vehicle in the US.
There are none. Lots of prototypes going back for a century, but no actual production cars that meet this criterion. The industry argued they didn’t want to build “…the world’s most aerodynamic car that no one would ever buy.” since the Chrysler Airflow(which in fact wasn’t very aero, while the Lincoln Zephyr, which was for its time, sold quite well considering the economy of the time).
There are some old ICE cars that would still compete with or exceed today’s most efficient EV offerings if converted to electric, mostly because of low frontal area and less mass to make up for the higher drag coefficient value. Depending upon your definition of “comfortably”, consider the following:
-early Saab 96
-Opel Calibra
-Toyota Prius gen II
-Honda CRX HF
-Datsun 1200
-Pontiac Firebird Transam 3rd gen liftback coupe
-Toyota Echo
…all would make for fairly efficient EV conversions. We’re talking Tesla Model 3 levels of efficiency or better as long as you don’t go over GVWR. Of those listed, only the Gen II Prius would really have decent passenger room, but they are all technically capable of seating 4 occupants.
Some of these, you might run into an issue storing enough battery for more than 120 miles range without going over GVWR, BUT as far as Wh/mile efficiency goes, they will all do well. The Saab 96, Honda CRX HF, Opel Calibra, and Toyota Echo all have potential to be 200 Wh/mile cars, or less.
Aeromods can also be done.
We bought our Model Y just after they came out in the early stages of the pandemic. Not only did I get the OG sticker price, I got $3k off of that and a killer interest rate. Even if they say that a 3-year old one is worth 49% of the original value, I’m still solidly on the right side of that equation. My wife will drive it for five years and then I’ll take over daily driver duties and she’ll get a new car. I’m assuming it will last that long, but we’ve had zero issues that cause me concern and the battery life is almost what it was at new and we’ve got 64k on it. If that’s consistent with others then a used one would be a great buy.
We’ve never experienced the ire and complaints people have over owning a EV. It’s great as a daily, we take several long distance trips a year in it (drove from Michigan to SC over Thanksgiving and back), and it’s been perfect. No charging issues, no quality issues, no problems whatsoever. Maybe our time is coming, but it’s been a model citizen.
Model Ys are great cars and the Supercharger network is great.
But wouldn’t they be so much better as hatchbacks without a glass roof that cooked your brain? And buttons to control vital functions?
I’ve owned a glass-roofed Model 3 for over 5 years and can assure you that there’s no cooking of brains. The roof glass is super tinted and UV-filtered.
I forget the roof is even glass. You just don’t notice it. I DO however miss have oh-shit handles on the roofline though.
I think what has been concerning to many people, myself very much included, with a Used EV is the unknown of battery longevity. As we’ve all seen from i3s and Leafs (Leaves?) is a dying battery can be catastrophically expensive to repair on a cheaper used car, and I’ve seen far too many stories online of Model 3 batteries dying and with quotes well over 10k to replace.
The reality is, if I’m buying a used Model 3 Dual Motor for somewhere in the high 20’s to Low 30s, I cannot justify or afford at 12-18k battery replacement. On an ICE car like my CX-30, there would be signs and obvious prevention that could be done before an engine would grenade itself, and I wouldn’t be out more than 5-6k for a replacement engine. Couple that with less than desirable charging infrastructure near where I live, and even less maintenance infrastructure, the thought of buying an as-yet unproven battery powered car is too much risk financially.
All that said, in about 5-6 years once we’ve gotten a better test of average failure rates/times of EV batteries, and hopefully some meaningful repair options beyond a 5-figure whole pack swap, I’ll absolutely buy into a slightly used EV. Especially if the trend continues of off-lease EVs halving in price, that seems like the sweet spot of minimal battery degradation, some warranty carryover, and up-to-date features and tech at a reasonable price.
I wouldn’t buy a used EV, but that’s not a knock against EVs in particular as I don’t buy anything used.
I would however buy a Suburban HD (sans armor of course) if GM saw fit to offer them to consumers again. It’s a shame both they and Ford went away from that market.
First of all, Sebria? For the guy talking about journalistic standards, can you even spell-check?
Second, EVs are getting better and cheaper. All highly evolving new technology suffers huge depreciation in the first few generations as the early adopters who were willing to pay up sell their obsolete stuff.
As long as there are incentives to buy a NEW EV used EV prices will be depressed. Why? Because consumers price incentives into their buying decision. The second you buy a new EV it is worth at minimum $7,500 less. Because when a consumer shops they will consider the incentive for the new one. Heck, Tesla even lists it price with the incentive already taken out (and a big asterisk).
It’s going to take a while for the Tesla owners to accept the drop in value of their cars – most 3 year old Teslas in my part of the world are still listed for close to the same price as a new Tesla.
Gotta love the irony of being an early adopter and apologist for a new technology, but a firm supporter of 3 year old list prices.
I think there’s another important bit on the low end of the used EV market. Anything that would run around 30k is probably going to come down to 25k, if possible (at dealerships). The used EV tax credit makes it a much better value at that point. As such, you end up seeing Bolts depreciate faster than you’d expect, just because it’s going to be hard to sell a 30k Bolt when a 25k one gets some money back.
And, of course, there’s the likelihood that someone who owns a home and installs a charger is less likely to be shopping used cars. So you need to offer a better value for the used car shopper to justify an EV.
But, yeah, the new price drops and the luxury bias are probably the biggest drivers. There are a lot of factors at play, though. Maybe David is the biggest reason. We’ll never know.
Now I want an old panda converted to EV.