It’s pretty well established by now that buying a first model-year car is not the best idea, especially if that car isn’t based on another well-established vehicle with a proven powertrain and mechanical/electrical architecture. “By the final year of production, all the bugs will have been worked out, so I should get a final model-year car, right?” Well, not so fast.
Let’s first establish this: The “never buy the first model-year” advice is good; I could probably give you a million examples of design flaws that were changed sometime in the middle of the production run. Here are a few just off the top of my head:
- Around 2005, General Motors fixed its 2.2-liter EcoTec four-cylinder engine’s timing chain lubrication problem after numerous early (first three model years) timing chain failures
- In 2013, Nissan replaced its quickly-degrading Leaf battery packs (first two model-years) to a new “Lizard” pack that lasts longer
- In 2013, Jeep fixed the issues its 2012 and 2013 Jeep Wranglers (first model years with new engine) were having with cylinder head valve guides
- In 2015, BMW changed its timing chain/guide design of its N20 2.0-liter engines after numerous engine failures (first three model years).
- In 2014, Subaru made engine changes after 2013 (first model-year) Scion FRS and Subaru BRZs valve spring failures
Here’s a quote from Consumer Reports about first model-year cars:
“…as our data has consistently shown, reliability-minded consumers would be best served by forgoing brand new vehicles in their first model year.”
It makes sense; as much research and development that automakers do before sending to customers, there are going to be some real-world conditions that the automaker will not have accounted for, and if this leads to significant failures and especially recalls, the automaker will likely fix the issue during the vehicle’s production run. Warranty repairs are expensive for automakers, after all.
But while those changes are happening something else will also be taking place: TCR
Technical Cost Reduction
TCR is technically an internal term used at DaimlerChrysler/Chrysler Group, LLC/FCA/Stellantis/whatever the hell people are calling the company I once worked for. It stands for “technical cost reduction,” and, well, I’ll allow FCA to define it in its “Supplier Help Resources” document:
FCA cost reduction program is a partnership with the supplier to reduce the cost of components and systems through innovative ideas that include material, function, form, process, and part management. If a supplier submits their idea into GPSIS, and it meets the FCA business case criteria without Decontenting, reducing Quality or Performance, FCA has 2 teams to support supplier idea development.
The short of it is that the goal is to reduce the cost of building the car not by reducing features, and not by reducing the car’s perceived quality — the point is to reduce cost in a way that’s imperceptible. At least, that’s the theory. In reality, sometimes the cost reductions are noticeable. Oftentimes they involve removing features that manufacturers’ data shows most folks don’t actually use, or they involve reducing the gauge of certain materials, or they involve change materials that companies don’t think customers will miss.
View this post on Instagram
Generally, an ideal TCR, when pointed out to a customer, would result in a reply: “Oh, I don’t really care about that. The car feels the same.” But to diehards, sometimes it’s hard to look at a TCR and not be a bit disappointed just knowing that you’re getting less for your money.
Take my 2021 BMW i3. I’ve been driving a 2014 for over a year, so stepping into my 2021, some cost-saves things become obvious to me. First, the glovebox lock is no longer made of metal; it now appears to be made entirely of plastic.
2014:
2021:
In addition, 2014 BMW i3s came with netting on the back of the front seats; this was a handy place to store documents. BMW removed that starting in 2015.
2014:
2021:
Then there’s the Giga World interior changes. From 2014 to 2017, it looked like this:
You can see a slight change in leather color and fabric; those aren’t the cost-saves obvious to me — it’s the armrests. Notice how they were leather before, and now they’re white leatherette:
These are obviously small changes, and the average customer isn’t going to care that much about a seat net, armrests, or a glovebox lock, so in that way, BMW’s TCR engineers did a good job.
Still, as I’m sure many diehard enthusiasts have experienced when going from an early build car to a later one — not having a feature that you had before, or giving up on quality even a tiny bit when you’ve gotten used to the early vehicle, is a tough pill to swallow.
With that said, I have noticed that earlier-built cars tend to have better fit and finish than later ones, though that’s more anecdotal (though it’s worth mentioning that tooling does wear out over time). With that said, despite TCR, if I had to choose between a first model-year vehicle and a final, I’d choose a final. Not only have some of the big design flaws been fixed so the automaker can avoid more costly warranty claims, but in order to remain competitive, oftentimes there are new features added in over the years, or some once-optional features becomes standard. My 2021 BMW i3S, for example, has fancy Adaptive Headlights that weren’t available on early cars, it has Apple Carplay that wasn’t available on early cars, it has a new iDrive system that early cars didn’t have, and it’s a Sport Model, which wasn’t an option before 2018.
So there’s definitely more to gain and more to avoid when you choose a final model-year vehicle over a first. TCRs, if done correctly, are things you should be able to deal with.
I wanted a 350Z so bad I ordered it 6 months before they went on sale. As far as I know I had the first one on the road in Florida. The early cars had track rods that were too long so it was impossible to align the front end properly. The Nissan solution was new track rods. Oh no. Wait. That would have been helpful. The Nissan solution was free tires while it was under warranty. I got about 8000 miles out of a set. It was sold before the warranty expired…
Yikes!
WTF? Buying people tires can’t have been cheaper than replacing one part, can it?
“With that said, I have noticed that earlier-built cars tend to have better fit and finish than later ones, though that’s more anecdotal.”
Can often be due to die wear and worn out production tooling letting everthing get to the maximum the engineering tolerances allow.
At work, we call cost cutting DtC, Design to Cost.
“With that said, I have noticed that earlier-built cars tend to have better fit and finish than later ones, though that’s more anecdotal.”
Can often be due to die wear and worn out production tooling letting everthing get to the maximum the engineering tolerances allow.
At work, we call cost cutting DtC, Design to Cost.
I wanna see David do a TCR on the “RAM 1500 Classic” to see what’s been changed since they introduced it in 2009, to justify the prices they want in 2024.
Having owned a 2009 1500 (when they were still known as Dodges) and having seen prices on 2024 models, absolutely. Or another long-lived model like the D40 Frontier (’05-’21). I’m curious what got changed at the point it received the testbed VQ38DD and the 9G-Tronic.
Let’s start with the myriad recalls the DS Ram’s received over its long, long life, especially ones impacting newer model years, as a good place to start looking.
I wanna see David do a TCR on the “RAM 1500 Classic” to see what’s been changed since they introduced it in 2009, to justify the prices they want in 2024.
Having owned a 2009 1500 (when they were still known as Dodges) and having seen prices on 2024 models, absolutely. Or another long-lived model like the D40 Frontier (’05-’21). I’m curious what got changed at the point it received the testbed VQ38DD and the 9G-Tronic.
Let’s start with the myriad recalls the DS Ram’s received over its long, long life, especially ones impacting newer model years, as a good place to start looking.
The best model year to buy is always year 2/3 post MCA (mid cycle action). You get features held back from the original or not ready, more significant improvements (the entire center console of my Alfa for faarrr better post 2020 update).
I’d take a VAVE over the rush to market Every. Single. Time.
The best model year to buy is always year 2/3 post MCA (mid cycle action). You get features held back from the original or not ready, more significant improvements (the entire center console of my Alfa for faarrr better post 2020 update).
I’d take a VAVE over the rush to market Every. Single. Time.
We bought a 2014 Ford Expedition a couple of years ago, which is notable as being the very last model year of the very last model that came with the much-derided 3-valve 5.4 modular V8. That of course gave me pause, so before we pulled the trigger on the purchase I did a bunch of research to try and separate the reality from the hype when it comes to the (un)reliability of that powertrain. It turns out that most of the well known failure points of those engines (spark plugs, timing chain guides, lifters, among others) were solved in a redesign that took place around 2009 or so; and the rest of them got figured out by 2011. So the late 5.4’s are pretty well all sorted out. The rest of the bad rap that engine has been saddled with has to do with so many of them being used to power poorly cared for and abused fleet vehicles. They are sensitive to oil change interval, so if you don’t change the oil until it turns to tar, you’re going to have a bad time. But we weren’t buying a beaten old work truck, ours was a pampered luxury SUV. So I bought with confidence, and haven’t been disappointed.
Ford’s usually decent about steadily working out the problems on its engines, so by the end, they’re in good shape. I think the early Essex 3.8 V6s had head gasket problems, and though that got solved, that was always their reputation, long after the problem was solved.
2012 and up Focus and Fiesta Transmissions have never been sorted and I doubt they ever will.
I read recently that yet ANOTHER class action suit was filed!
Yup, singleport models, especially 89-95s. The 96-98 have a much lower failure rate, and the 99-04 splitports have a rarely failing gasket.
I knew a person with an 01 V6/auto mustang. Used it to deliver some engineering parts in alaska. Last i knew, he was at 750,000 miles on the original driveline and routine maintenance.
I’ve waffled on buying something 5.4 powered for years because of two opposing metrics.
The litany of failures everyone claims, vs the tens of dozens of commercial vehicles I regularly see in fleets that all have anywhere from 350 to 600k on the 5.4. It can’t be THAT bad if fleets are regularly getting 300+K out of the mill.
We bought a 2014 Ford Expedition a couple of years ago, which is notable as being the very last model year of the very last model that came with the much-derided 3-valve 5.4 modular V8. That of course gave me pause, so before we pulled the trigger on the purchase I did a bunch of research to try and separate the reality from the hype when it comes to the (un)reliability of that powertrain. It turns out that most of the well known failure points of those engines (spark plugs, timing chain guides, lifters, among others) were solved in a redesign that took place around 2009 or so; and the rest of them got figured out by 2011. So the late 5.4’s are pretty well all sorted out. The rest of the bad rap that engine has been saddled with has to do with so many of them being used to power poorly cared for and abused fleet vehicles. They are sensitive to oil change interval, so if you don’t change the oil until it turns to tar, you’re going to have a bad time. But we weren’t buying a beaten old work truck, ours was a pampered luxury SUV. So I bought with confidence, and haven’t been disappointed.
Ford’s usually decent about steadily working out the problems on its engines, so by the end, they’re in good shape. I think the early Essex 3.8 V6s had head gasket problems, and though that got solved, that was always their reputation, long after the problem was solved.
2012 and up Focus and Fiesta Transmissions have never been sorted and I doubt they ever will.
I read recently that yet ANOTHER class action suit was filed!
Yup, singleport models, especially 89-95s. The 96-98 have a much lower failure rate, and the 99-04 splitports have a rarely failing gasket.
I knew a person with an 01 V6/auto mustang. Used it to deliver some engineering parts in alaska. Last i knew, he was at 750,000 miles on the original driveline and routine maintenance.
I’ve waffled on buying something 5.4 powered for years because of two opposing metrics.
The litany of failures everyone claims, vs the tens of dozens of commercial vehicles I regularly see in fleets that all have anywhere from 350 to 600k on the 5.4. It can’t be THAT bad if fleets are regularly getting 300+K out of the mill.
Wish this worked with people because then my last girlfriend would be cheaper than my first, but probably more trustworthy. That hasn’t been my experience.
Wish this worked with people because then my last girlfriend would be cheaper than my first, but probably more trustworthy. That hasn’t been my experience.
I think the first year thing occupies a much larger place in peoples’ minds than is actually justified. As is typical with these sorts of things, we hear about the bad cases (in retrospect) and never hear a peep about the product launches that go off without a hitch.
Depends on how much of a departure there is. I bought a 2010 genesis coupe and drove it for 8 years/ 256k. It was on it’s 3rd engine (low-miles pull from a 2013+) and it’s second trans. It also had the paint repaired on 3 separate occasions under warranty. I also had the driveshaft guibos fail so bad that the vibration at highway speed would trigger the seatbelt locking function.
That being said, for the entirety of my ownership, I never changed a single wheel bearing or electrical component. All of the non-driveline bits worked exactly as designed. It also survived 8 Canadian winters and being beaten on mercilessly by early 20s me.
I think the first year thing occupies a much larger place in peoples’ minds than is actually justified. As is typical with these sorts of things, we hear about the bad cases (in retrospect) and never hear a peep about the product launches that go off without a hitch.
Depends on how much of a departure there is. I bought a 2010 genesis coupe and drove it for 8 years/ 256k. It was on it’s 3rd engine (low-miles pull from a 2013+) and it’s second trans. It also had the paint repaired on 3 separate occasions under warranty. I also had the driveshaft guibos fail so bad that the vibration at highway speed would trigger the seatbelt locking function.
That being said, for the entirety of my ownership, I never changed a single wheel bearing or electrical component. All of the non-driveline bits worked exactly as designed. It also survived 8 Canadian winters and being beaten on mercilessly by early 20s me.
Come on Cadillac, just keep the Blackwing good long enough for me to find a job…
Come on Cadillac, just keep the Blackwing good long enough for me to find a job…
The exception is GM for last year cars. Usually it’s the one they get right just before they kill it. Fiero, obviously, but also 2019 Volt (last year) added some desirable features.
Or the entire Pontiac division, even.
100% this. The 1996 Buick Century and Olds Ciera were 14 years old and scored virtually perfect on consumer satisfaction scores. There are still quite a few running around today, the only A-bodies left.
I remember back then even Consumer Reports was like “eh, it’s not an amazing car but they have flawless reliability, go for it” about the last of the A-bodies
The 2019 Volt even had the “faster” charging option available, no BECM issues too. The 2023 Chevy Bolt EUV was the only year available with no recalls and it only lasted two years, the 2022 still had the battery issue, then they killed it.
GM tends to offer the absolute best iteration of a model, the last year before they kill it off.
The exception is GM for last year cars. Usually it’s the one they get right just before they kill it. Fiero, obviously, but also 2019 Volt (last year) added some desirable features.
Or the entire Pontiac division, even.
100% this. The 1996 Buick Century and Olds Ciera were 14 years old and scored virtually perfect on consumer satisfaction scores. There are still quite a few running around today, the only A-bodies left.
I remember back then even Consumer Reports was like “eh, it’s not an amazing car but they have flawless reliability, go for it” about the last of the A-bodies
The 2019 Volt even had the “faster” charging option available, no BECM issues too. The 2023 Chevy Bolt EUV was the only year available with no recalls and it only lasted two years, the 2022 still had the battery issue, then they killed it.
GM tends to offer the absolute best iteration of a model, the last year before they kill it off.
I owned a 1999 WJ Grand Cherokee, 1st year, that overall treated me well. It had the carryover 4.0L though. The transmission did blow up at 125,000 miles (they all did) and I had a few electrical gremlins. I think the key is never buy a new body AND drivetrain in combination.
The later model year Laredo’s were definitely de-contented over mine.
I owned a 1999 WJ Grand Cherokee, 1st year, that overall treated me well. It had the carryover 4.0L though. The transmission did blow up at 125,000 miles (they all did) and I had a few electrical gremlins. I think the key is never buy a new body AND drivetrain in combination.
The later model year Laredo’s were definitely de-contented over mine.
With fewer cars having a 4-year turnover timeframe to redesign (think of Civic/Corolla pace of redesign), I can see the “TCR” being more obvious on those longer running vehicles (my own industry uses VA/VE as Value Analysis and Value Engineering as the term)
I can only imagine the VA/VE being glaring on long running vehicles such as the 4Runner, GTR, Frontier.
With fewer cars having a 4-year turnover timeframe to redesign (think of Civic/Corolla pace of redesign), I can see the “TCR” being more obvious on those longer running vehicles (my own industry uses VA/VE as Value Analysis and Value Engineering as the term)
I can only imagine the VA/VE being glaring on long running vehicles such as the 4Runner, GTR, Frontier.
The only reason to buy a first year is if you think it’s going to be a collectible model. But that only works if you can see the future AND hold onto the car for 25+ years.
The only reason to buy a first year is if you think it’s going to be a collectible model. But that only works if you can see the future AND hold onto the car for 25+ years.
I think the ideal would be avoid the first year of a model with introduction of new technology. Using BMW as an example, is not that first years F series are bad cars, but that are combinations that were bad, like anything with N63 engine.
It was new in a lot of aspects, and was (is) a maintenance nightmare for F01(750i or ActiveHybrid 7)/F10 (550i) owners. Not that N55 was good, but a lot less worse.
If, in general, a new car relies on existing technology, which will probably be just a facelift and not a new plataform, I don’t see much problem in the first year of a model.
I think the ideal would be avoid the first year of a model with introduction of new technology. Using BMW as an example, is not that first years F series are bad cars, but that are combinations that were bad, like anything with N63 engine.
It was new in a lot of aspects, and was (is) a maintenance nightmare for F01(750i or ActiveHybrid 7)/F10 (550i) owners. Not that N55 was good, but a lot less worse.
If, in general, a new car relies on existing technology, which will probably be just a facelift and not a new plataform, I don’t see much problem in the first year of a model.