Here at The Morning Dump World Data Center, our diligent staff of news elves is committed to avoiding the pitfalls of other morning automotive news roundups by embracing nuance and refusing to paint with a broad brush. Also, when it comes to the EV market, please allow me to paint a picture with a brush as wide as the Río de la Plata.
Consumers who wanted an EV as fast as they could get their hands on one probably already have an EV. It’s debatable, but I think a lot of people who were even tilted toward an EV purchase likely have entered the market as well. That brings us to the third tranche of people who could use an electric car without issue (people with regular commutes and charging ability at/near their homes) and are open to it. Today’s advice, based on the latest data, is for them.
Speaking of data, the EPA has issued final rules on fuel economy requirements, and they’re not too bad if you’re an automaker. The car industry won this round, but I think it’s still aggressive enough to be achievable.
Life is a game of numbers and odds, but that doesn’t mean you should submit yourself to fate. The most successful out there tilt the universe to improve their odds, which is what Elon Musk is trying to do with his compensation hanging in the balance. The National Automobile Dealers Association is trying to do the same by getting the latest rules on dealers blocked.
Why Used EVs Are Such A Good Deal, And Why I’d Be Hesitant To Buy A New One
The big existential question for me in the automotive world is not whether Chinese EV automakers will crush everyone else, it’s whether or not this generation of electric car is worth buying.
It varies a lot by automaker, but the general sense I have is that the answer is: probably not. On the extreme end of advancement are cars like the Lucid Air, Rivian R1S/T, and the Tesla Model Y. These all represent approximately the best you’re going to get out of the extant anode/cathode chemistry. Will these cars continue to improve and get better over time? Absolutely. Could something come after that’s just much better and cheaper? I think there’s a strong possibility that the answer is yes.
For most other automakers, even their best electric cars are imperfect in some way. GM’s Ultium platform is too heavy, Ford’s EVs are fine but also interim products, and most of the European cars are too expensive for what you get. Basically all the Japanese EVs are also-ran vehicles. Probably the best non-Tesla/Lucid/Rivian EVs are from Hyundai-Kia-Genesis, but those vehicles don’t have incentives if you buy one and are thus $7,500 more expensive than everything else.
Here’s why a next-gen EV might be better, depending on the company:
- It might be cheaper. Tax incentives aren’t going anywhere and almost every foreign automaker is trying to build a plant in the United States to make EVs that qualify for tax credits.
- The tech might improve dramatically. Toyota is working on solid-state batteries and they’re not alone. Elon Musk is trying to build cars with even more advanced driverless aids.
You can also add to these concerns the fact that we’ve been in the middle of a massive price war that’s made new electric cars cheaper while also undercutting people who just bought electric cars by lowering their residual values, which means they’ll be worth less when it’s time to sell.
Ok, so what are you to do with this information if you need a car now?
Lease an electric car.
Leasing is not ideal in every situation, but at the moment the lease deals are insane for new EVs for a number of reasons. The biggest one is a loophole that allows cars not built in North America to qualify for the $7,500 tax credit. Also, if the tech gets way better or prices drop it’s not really of big concern to you since your price is locked in already.
Buy a used electric car.
The latest Manheim Used Value Index is out and it shows the value of a used EV is down 16.0% year-over-year in May, compared to just an 11.6% adjustment for non-EVs. The massive drops in new EV pricing, combined with Hertz offloading thousands of Teslas, means the premium for these cars has been absorbed to the point that you’d have to get a lemon to be unable to get your value back.
Obviously, there are some big exceptions here (the Model Y and new Equinox EV are competitively priced, and cars like the Mach-E do have a lot of incentives), but I think this advice works for most people.
Fuel Economy Rules Should Result In 50.4 MPG By 2031
Many groups lobbied hard against huge increases in fuel economy requirements that were initially proposed by the Biden Administration, which initially called for big fines and changes that would see the nation’s average fuel economy for most passenger vehicles to rise to 58 mpg by 2032. The new requirements revise that down to about 50.4 mpg by 2031, and 35 mpg for big trucks and vans.
Here’s what the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is saying about the changes:
In this final rule, fuel economy will increase 2% per year for model years 2027-2031 for passenger cars, while light trucks will increase 2% per year for model years 2029-2031. These increases will bring the average light-duty vehicle fuel economy up to approximately 50.4 miles per gallon by model year 2031, saving passenger car and light truck owners more than $600 in fuel over the lifetime of their vehicles
Heavy-duty pickup truck and van fuel efficiency will increase 10% per year for model years 2030-2032 and 8% per year for model years 2033-2035. This will result in a fleetwide average of approximately 35 miles per gallon by model year 2035, saving heavy-duty pickup and van owners more than $700 in fuel over the lifetime of their vehicles.
“Not only will these new standards save Americans money at the pump every time they fill up, they will also decrease harmful pollution and make America less reliant on foreign oil,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said. “These standards will save car owners more than $600 in gasoline costs over the lifetime of their vehicle.”
The other big news here is that the massively proposed fines have been pared back a lot. It’s possible that many automakers can avoid them altogether. Obviously, automakers are happy about this. Here’s the head of the big nationwide lobbying group in a Reuters article via the Detroit Free Press:
John Bozzella, who heads the Alliance for Automotive Innovation trade group representing major automakers, praised the revisions that will dramatically reduce projected penalties that his members had feared.
“Those fines wouldn’t have produced any environmental benefits or additional fuel economy and would’ve foolishly diverted automaker capital away from the massive investments required by the electric vehicle transition,” Bozzella said.
Again, environmentalists aren’t happy (one told Reuters that NHTSA had “caved to automaker pressure.”)
I consider myself an environmentalist and I’m not too disturbed by the rule change. These seem like much more achievable goals and this will push way more automakers/people towards hybrids. Plus, it’s not like this is going to be achievable only with hybrids, automakers are going to have to sell a lot of electric cars to make the math work.
And, finally, politics plays into this a lot. The Biden Administration seems to want inflation down so it’s not a campaign issue and so that the Fed cuts rates this summer, thus setting off a potential positive economic swing that makes consumers feel better about the economy.
Tesla Needs Small Shareholder Stans For $56 Billion Payday
If you voted your TSLA shares, you have the chance to attend our Giga Texas tour with @elonmusk & @woodhaus2 as your guides → https://t.co/DrGCyD4xQN
— Tesla (@Tesla) May 28, 2024
Tesla CEO Elon Musk seems kinda desperate to get small shareholders to back his bid to get the highest paycheck in human history, even as some larger shareholders are indicating they’re going to vote against Musk.
I have no Tesla shares directly, so it’s a not-my-pig/not-my-farm type of situation. I do share Musk’s penchant for LOLs, and so whatever is going to be the most amusing outcome is sort of the outcome I want, which could be Tesla losing and Elon Musk performatively quitting the company.
The gamble Musk is making (and, in our version of capitalism it makes 100% sense for him to do whatever he can to get $56 billion) is that smaller shareholders probably love him and don’t want to see him quit.
Although small investors have an array of opinions, experts in corporate vote campaigns say the size and CEO-friendly nature of many individual investors at Tesla make them an obvious target.
“The man ends up 10x-ing my investment and he’s given nothing? It doesn’t seem right or fair,” said Andrew Theyken Bench, a lawyer in Allentown, Pennsylvania with fewer than 5,000 Tesla shares, who voted by proxy with management on all items at the meeting, including Musk’s pay.
The big issue is that “retail” investors don’t typically vote in these things, so Tesla needs to incentivize them, which explains the contest in the tweet above.
Some Dealers Don’t Like The Idea Of Consumer Protection
The Federal Trade Commission issued rules last year to try to protect consumers from specific types of dealership behavior, including sneaking in random fees and products into the final cost.
Dealers are trying to kill this rule by using Congress to specify in the FTC’s new budget that it can’t spend any money rolling out or enforcing the rule according to Automotive News:
U.S. House subcommittee on June 5 advanced a $23.6 billion Financial Services and General Government Appropriations bill that includes $388.7 million in FTC funding for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2025 — and prohibits any of that money from being spent rolling out or enforcing the CARS Rule.
FTC spokesperson Jay Mayfield said the agency had no comment on the bill.
The full House Appropriations Committee has yet to vote on the legislation. But Chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla., said prior to the subcommittee’s vote June 5 the measure made “sensible cuts to federal financial and consumer protection agencies and prohibits funding for their overreaching, harmful, regulatory policies.”
As a reminder, these “harmful” regulatory policies include banning bait-and-switch claims, advertising vehicles that are not on the lot as available, and misleading buyers about the availability of discounts/rebates.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I’m a big fan of Jamie xx and his band The xx. He’s got a new album coming out later summer and, when it’s out, I’ll be sure to share a track. I’m actually such a fan of Jamie xx that I excitedly volunteered to clear a track from one of his albums for a commercial project I was working on, which ended up being an enormous, almost 5-month-long PITA. It sucked so hard and I had to spend so much time groveling to Brian Wilson’s lawyers. And, yet, I still am a fan of the band.
The Big Question
What’s the best used EV deal you’ve seen? Or new EV lease?
I don’t pay any real attention to EV prices, since there’s nothing out there yet that I’d be interested in upgrading to, but saw this recently, which would qualify for the best deal I’ve heard about- https://www.npr.org/2024/06/05/nx-s1-4985912/how-a-colorado-woman-bought-a-used-ev-for-less-than-700
I don’t pay any real attention to EV prices, since there’s nothing out there yet that I’d be interested in upgrading to, but saw this recently, which would qualify for the best deal I’ve heard about- https://www.npr.org/2024/06/05/nx-s1-4985912/how-a-colorado-woman-bought-a-used-ev-for-less-than-700
I actually just bought a used EV this weekend! I am now the proud owner of a 2016 E-Golf. The little 80 mile range is perfect for my 45 mile commute daily. Charges up to full overnight. Its not the fastest, but it is significantly more fun than the 2012 Fusion it replaced. I got a great deal at $10,999 for 58k miles.
I actually just bought a used EV this weekend! I am now the proud owner of a 2016 E-Golf. The little 80 mile range is perfect for my 45 mile commute daily. Charges up to full overnight. Its not the fastest, but it is significantly more fun than the 2012 Fusion it replaced. I got a great deal at $10,999 for 58k miles.
Does Tesla need Elon more or does Elon need Tesla more? Without Tesla, will Elon still have the power and influence he does with just Twitter/X, SpaceX, and Neuralink?
Will Tesla collapse if Elon leaves?
I think the cult of Elon hinges on his wild claims about the future of Tesla.
At this point, I think Tesla needs real managerial leadership and stability with all the recent competition if they hope to survive as a CAR company. As a tech company, who knows. Tech valuations are all imaginary and based on hopes and dreams.
I feel Tesla without Musk could be Uber without Kalanick. I.E. a professionally managed company that tries to improve its tenuous attachment to legality and labor.
Does Tesla need Elon more or does Elon need Tesla more? Without Tesla, will Elon still have the power and influence he does with just Twitter/X, SpaceX, and Neuralink?
Will Tesla collapse if Elon leaves?
I think the cult of Elon hinges on his wild claims about the future of Tesla.
At this point, I think Tesla needs real managerial leadership and stability with all the recent competition if they hope to survive as a CAR company. As a tech company, who knows. Tech valuations are all imaginary and based on hopes and dreams.
I feel Tesla without Musk could be Uber without Kalanick. I.E. a professionally managed company that tries to improve its tenuous attachment to legality and labor.
Bit of a different take: we scored a solid deal for financing an EV: 17% off MSRP…plus 3.99% APR. Just pulled the trigger around the 1st of June. Leasing is not an option for us & our driving situation; even with the huge breaks a lease would have still cost us more in the end.
Not to mention that even with terrific credit, used car interest rates are outrageous. It didn’t make any sense fiscally to purchase a used EV with the high interest rates and have a used EV for the money.
The way we did it was order an EV to the perfect spec for us, using a dealership allocation; sold one of our vehicles privately for more than it was worth; use those funds as a downpayment on our custom/perfect-for-us EV; and use the 3.99% APR plus about $10,000 off MSRP. At least in our situation, it was the way to go.
Bit of a different take: we scored a solid deal for financing an EV: 17% off MSRP…plus 3.99% APR. Just pulled the trigger around the 1st of June. Leasing is not an option for us & our driving situation; even with the huge breaks a lease would have still cost us more in the end.
Not to mention that even with terrific credit, used car interest rates are outrageous. It didn’t make any sense fiscally to purchase a used EV with the high interest rates and have a used EV for the money.
The way we did it was order an EV to the perfect spec for us, using a dealership allocation; sold one of our vehicles privately for more than it was worth; use those funds as a downpayment on our custom/perfect-for-us EV; and use the 3.99% APR plus about $10,000 off MSRP. At least in our situation, it was the way to go.
As a small shareholder of TSLA I recently voted against the compensation plan for 1 reason, layoffs. Prior to the layoffs I would have voted for it simply because they set goals for him and as CEO he met those goals and since an agreement is an agreement, pay him.
However laying off 10% of your workforce to remain profitable while also taking the largest paycheck in history just doesn’t sit right with me. Downturns will always happen but the paycuts should come from the top down since they’re the ones responsible for structuring the company to better survive downturns in the first place.
As a small shareholder of TSLA I recently voted against the compensation plan for 1 reason, layoffs. Prior to the layoffs I would have voted for it simply because they set goals for him and as CEO he met those goals and since an agreement is an agreement, pay him.
However laying off 10% of your workforce to remain profitable while also taking the largest paycheck in history just doesn’t sit right with me. Downturns will always happen but the paycuts should come from the top down since they’re the ones responsible for structuring the company to better survive downturns in the first place.
Bolt EUV is by far the best deal in town, IMHO. I live in CT, and we have the CHEAPR rebate, which offers $4250 on any 2023 and newer when purchased within the state of CT. Many are below $20k, giving you a 1 year old car with <20k miles, at least 6 more years of warranty, all for:
~$16k
Bolt EUV is by far the best deal in town, IMHO. I live in CT, and we have the CHEAPR rebate, which offers $4250 on any 2023 and newer when purchased within the state of CT. Many are below $20k, giving you a 1 year old car with <20k miles, at least 6 more years of warranty, all for:
~$16k
It always stuck out to me that Doofenshmirtz HQ looked like Ferb’s head.
It always stuck out to me that Doofenshmirtz HQ looked like Ferb’s head.
Congress is trying to stop the FTC from telling car dealers they have to be honest… Of course they are. The corruption never ceases to amaze me.
I know it’s cool to say regulations are bad and we should leave businesses alone to make as much money as they can, but come on. The rules FTC don’t harm anyone, or require anyone behaving honestly to make any changes. On the other hand, they outlaw common dishonest practices, which would really help the average car buyer. Of course, the average car buyer isn’t represented by congress because they don’t have enough money to count.
Isn’t it great that our elected officials are so clearly for sale to the highest bidder, representing at best 10% of the electorate. Congress has like a 90% reelection rate and a 10% approval rate.
Ranked choice voting would be a better way to hold them accountable, but of course that’s an uphill battle.
Congress is trying to stop the FTC from telling car dealers they have to be honest… Of course they are. The corruption never ceases to amaze me.
I know it’s cool to say regulations are bad and we should leave businesses alone to make as much money as they can, but come on. The rules FTC don’t harm anyone, or require anyone behaving honestly to make any changes. On the other hand, they outlaw common dishonest practices, which would really help the average car buyer. Of course, the average car buyer isn’t represented by congress because they don’t have enough money to count.
Isn’t it great that our elected officials are so clearly for sale to the highest bidder, representing at best 10% of the electorate. Congress has like a 90% reelection rate and a 10% approval rate.
Ranked choice voting would be a better way to hold them accountable, but of course that’s an uphill battle.
“Elon Musk is trying to build cars with even more advanced driverless aids.” I do enjoy the little jokes you slide into your articles.
“Elon Musk is trying to build cars with even more advanced driverless aids.” I do enjoy the little jokes you slide into your articles.
I still maintain used Leafs can be a fantastic deal. You can get a used 2G Leaf for as low as $9,000 (not including tax credits) with a little effort. This will get you a car with a real-world range of 100+ miles that will last for years with essentially no maintenance. They are not a road trip machine, but they are excellent vehicles for local transportation.
Also, for the 400th time, the passively air-cooled batteries are not a problem. The early batteries (pre-2015) failed quickly, but batteries with the updated chemistry have held up well. Occasional fast charging will not kill these batteries. If you primarily use level 1 or 2 charging, you can expect these batteries to last for years.
I have a 15 leaf and it is awesome. it’s such a perfect city commuter car. 95% battery life left, 39K miles, paid 4K for it.
I still maintain used Leafs can be a fantastic deal. You can get a used 2G Leaf for as low as $9,000 (not including tax credits) with a little effort. This will get you a car with a real-world range of 100+ miles that will last for years with essentially no maintenance. They are not a road trip machine, but they are excellent vehicles for local transportation.
Also, for the 400th time, the passively air-cooled batteries are not a problem. The early batteries (pre-2015) failed quickly, but batteries with the updated chemistry have held up well. Occasional fast charging will not kill these batteries. If you primarily use level 1 or 2 charging, you can expect these batteries to last for years.
I have a 15 leaf and it is awesome. it’s such a perfect city commuter car. 95% battery life left, 39K miles, paid 4K for it.
A used EV is great if its one of the modern used EVs. Stear clear of Nissan Leafs if you need to publicly charge or anything with just an air cooled battery because those are going to fail quickly. Old Model S cars when they had the black nose cone, after that refresh with the newer batteries they are lasting much longer as are the drive motors.
I have seen great Bolt, Mach E, and Polestar 2 used deals around my area.
A used EV is great if its one of the modern used EVs. Stear clear of Nissan Leafs if you need to publicly charge or anything with just an air cooled battery because those are going to fail quickly. Old Model S cars when they had the black nose cone, after that refresh with the newer batteries they are lasting much longer as are the drive motors.
I have seen great Bolt, Mach E, and Polestar 2 used deals around my area.
My buddy is planning to sell his Bolt EV with a new battery for $10,500. I think he is planning to use a service like keysavvy as a pass through dealer to get the 4k used tax credit applied. Someone is going to get a decently low mileage bolt for under $6500 which seems like a fantastic deal.
This, the Bolt is the best deal, by far. I have them in the upper teens in my state, with a $4250 tax credit. Can’t beat that with a bat!
I mean I’d be quite interested in being that buyer! I’ve been looking at bolts for my fiancé who is starting a new job in PA. It’s a straight shot commute and I think the bolt could be killer for that use case
As a Bolt owner, it’ll be one of the best decisions you make. They’re amazing cars
Thanks! They’ve intrigued me for a while, but the price points they’re at on the used market makes it almost a no brainer!
My buddy is planning to sell his Bolt EV with a new battery for $10,500. I think he is planning to use a service like keysavvy as a pass through dealer to get the 4k used tax credit applied. Someone is going to get a decently low mileage bolt for under $6500 which seems like a fantastic deal.
This, the Bolt is the best deal, by far. I have them in the upper teens in my state, with a $4250 tax credit. Can’t beat that with a bat!
I mean I’d be quite interested in being that buyer! I’ve been looking at bolts for my fiancé who is starting a new job in PA. It’s a straight shot commute and I think the bolt could be killer for that use case
As a Bolt owner, it’ll be one of the best decisions you make. They’re amazing cars
Thanks! They’ve intrigued me for a while, but the price points they’re at on the used market makes it almost a no brainer!
I’m going to go for a different response and tell everyone looking for a 2nd or 3rd car to look at used Mazda MX-30s. They’re getting down into the low 20s/high teens and could go even lower if you qualify for any tax incentives.
Remember the knock on them was that their price was terrible for the ~100 mile range, but for less than half original MSRP and only two years old they are super nice inside and would make for a great commuter. Plus you can say you have an EV that goes more than 3 times as far as David’s Leaf!
They are still not worth it. You can find Bolts for that price with much better range. 100 miles even for just commuting is terrible.
Yeah the Bolt is the better overall value. But if you’re in the majority of Americans for whom 100 miles would work for their daily commute, the MX-30 isn’t a bad option as a second/third car. The Bolt can’t really be your only car either with its poor charging speed.
Also, interior and exterior design is a big advantage for the MX-30. To put it gently, the Bolt isn’t winning any beauty contests for either the interior or exterior. The facelift was an improvement for sure but it still has the look of an economy car.